Yeah, it's more likely that athletes are based in Europe so it is actually cheaper for them to travel to Hungary. I don't really know any other Oceania nations which compete in rhythmic gymnastics.
Having the Commonwealth Weightlifting Championships at the World Championships makes sense because weightlifting is quite popular in the Pacific, but most of those nations are quite poor and are unlikely to afford the cost of traveling to two events.
Usually 7-8 golds are enough for top 10 in the medal table, but with Russia having almost no participation, the threshold could rise to 10 golds.
Perhaps, but there's a considerable drop from the top 9. The tenth rank nation could have 10+ fewer total medals than the 9th rank. Unless they get lucky with golds they will struggle to break double digits.
No clearly the water sport coalition will form a boycott. Say goodbye to sailing, canoeing, rowing, swimming, 1/3 of the triathlon and the 3000m steeplechase
Besides athletics/swimming (or injuries) most NOCs accept their quotas. Sweden usually has additional requirements, especially if the person that earned the quota is unfit to use it. Sailing Canada has declined quotas in the past as they don't want poor results impacting their funding.
I've been keeping an eye on her for a while. I'm glad she's reached the cut, now she just needs to maintain her ranking.
Another triathlete to watch is Margot Garabedian, she recently switched from France to Cambodia. She is currently ranked 177 and will likely go for one of the tripartite quotas. As long as she stays above 180 she will likely get it, there are two tripartite quotas available and the only other eligible athlete without a quota is Erica Hawley and I'm not 100% sure they want to give Bermuda a second quota since Flora Duffy will likely qualify naturally.
Besides and who have chances to qualify in equestrian, is there any real chance that any other nation will qualify yet in 2023?
Outside of athletics/swimming, the next best (unlikely) bet would be the African Sprint Canoeing Championships. Everything else would be quite a surprise. Maybe boxing at the Pacific Games or the African or Oceania sailing qualifiers.
We are down to 70 unqualified nations remaining. I've updated all nations and sports, adding/removing potential events. Let me know if I missed anything. Since most nations remaining are tripartite eligible (everyone except ) many of the predicted options rely on winning one of those quotas. Here's the breakdown by how many nations have a chance in each sport.
Athletics - 63
Swimming - 61
Judo - 40
Boxing - 22
Weightlifting - 22
Taekwondo - 20
Shooting - 13
Canoeing - 11
Badminton - 10
Rowing - 8
Sailing - 8
Table Tennis - 8
Archery - 7
Tennis - 7
Wrestling - 7
Gymnastics - 5
Fencing - 4
Football - 4
Surfing - 4
Cycling - 3
Handball - 3
Basketball - 2
Equestrian - 2
Rugby Sevens - 2
Triathlon - 2
Artistic Swimming - 1
Golf - 1
Volleyball - 1
Water Polo - 1
Breaking - 0
Diving - 0
Field Hockey - 0
Modern Pentathlon - 0
Skateboarding - 0
Sport Climbing - 0
Unsurprisingly, athletics and swimming tops the list. Judo being third was expected. It is the easiest sport for a nation to qualify after athletics/swimming. Shooting being a bit low on the list despite having so many tripartite quotas likely means either many quotas will be reallocated or ISSF may change the rules and allow nations with no ranking points to be given the quota. Boxing, taekwondo and weightlifting are popular sports with some nations having a chance to qualify normally. Unfortunately a large set of nations will be left with nothing. On the low end six sports do not have any nations with a chance to qualify, most of which have tripartite quotas that will likely go unrewarded.
Doing a quick, no deep thinking count we have realistic chances in around 75 events. With that said, the odds of everything going our way is near 0%. My expectation is around 25 medals.
I know people here are making what ifs on reallocations, but war and politics apart ' Neutral ' Russia is officially in Paris 2024, and I don't expect any reallocations from UWW or IOC.
I'm going to have to agree along with in rowing. These are sport federation approved athletes in qualification position. Whether the IOC allows Russia/Belarus to compete is beyond the scope of this thread and if they are completely banned I would remove them regardless since they wouldn't be able to qualify. In regards to individual athletes potentially losing their "qualifying ability" due to their support of the war I see it as no different than an athlete being later found out to be doping and thus losing the quota (in fact for 2020 I remember I had to re-add a nation to the list due to a doping violation)
has qualified their first athlete for Paris 2024 games.
Yesugen Oyunbat qualifies in 50m 3P Air Rifle (W) event at the ongoing shooting world championships.
Another good size nation qualified. All that remains (besides Belarus and Russia) is Uzbekistan. After that the next biggest unqualified nations include with 25-30 chances each.
has an active canoe slalom athlete, who has an outside shot in the African qualifiers.
has a women's track cyclist who has maybe an outside shot in qualifying
I would remove swimming from as of now the Olympic Committee does not recognize the swimming federation and probably wont before Paris
I would add Men's 400 in track and field, they have 4 men under 46 seconds, with one having a time of 45.07 from their nationals yesterday. I'd also remove 3000m steeplechase, as their athlete got busted for doping. I would also add artistic gymnastics all-around women.
Perhaps worth adding women's soccer to the African countries still alive in qualifiers, as its so unpredictable.
Thanks
For they are quite far behind in the rankings and track cycling doesn't offer any tripartite spots.
competed at the world championships so I thought they are eligible.
For women's soccer, I've added the top nations. If someone listed pulls off the upset in the second round, I'll add them.
Just did a major update to the first post. We have gone into more detail, now each nation (except Russia as they are too big) has a list of which events they have a chance to qualify in.
I welcome all suggestions. Remember, unlikely is okay, near-impossible is not.
remain
qualified in men's -58kg taekwondo.
qualified in women's 10km open water swimming.
a quota in the women's kite should no one else register in time.
Erica Hawley and I'm not 100% sure they want to give Bermuda a second quota since Flora Duffy will likely qualify naturally.
and 
who have chances to qualify in equestrian, is there any real chance that any other nation will qualify yet in 2023?
has qualified in archery (mixed team recurve)
qualified in boxing
in rowing. These are sport federation approved athletes in qualification position. Whether the IOC allows Russia/Belarus to compete is beyond the scope of this thread and if they are completely banned I would remove them regardless since they wouldn't be able to qualify. In regards to individual athletes potentially losing their "qualifying ability" due to their support of the war I see it as no different than an athlete being later found out to be doping and thus losing the quota (in fact for 2020 I remember I had to re-add a nation to the list due to a doping violation)
Men's Basketball. It'll also be the first ever team sport they'll participate at the Olympics.
has qualified their first athlete in women's rhythmic gymnastics individual all-around
has qualified their first athlete for Paris 2024 games. 
with 25-30 chances each.
qualified in women's javelin throw.
has an active canoe slalom athlete, who has an outside shot in the African qualifiers.
has a women's track cyclist who has maybe an outside shot in qualifying
as of now the Olympic Committee does not recognize the swimming federation and probably wont before Paris
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Yeah, it's more likely that
athletes are based in Europe so it is actually cheaper for them to travel to Hungary. I don't really know any other Oceania nations which compete in rhythmic gymnastics.
Having the Commonwealth Weightlifting Championships at the World Championships makes sense because weightlifting is quite popular in the Pacific, but most of those nations are quite poor and are unlikely to afford the cost of traveling to two events.
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