Yeah, it's far from sure. The sport (not the leisure activty mind you) is not really popular (ie media coverage is minimal). Besides, it does't really convoy a youth message, and might appears as too much franco-french. It does stand a chance, the best they will never have, but it is not as automatic as some might think.
98% of the french people wouldn' know that Orienteering is actually a sport, so that's not going to happen. And with karate basically appearing like a lock for Paris 2024, I don't see them adding yet an extra combat sport with Ju Jitsu (or Savate if anyone was thinking about that)
Assuming, we will see the same procedure Than Tokyo and 5 additional sports will be added. I think these sports sould be considered as the front runners:
- Karate: Cheap to stage, Uber high medals chances, doesn't appear like too french or too european, continuation from Tokyo 2020
- Sport Climbing, cheap enough to stage, decent medal chances, domestic following (Bercy Arena packed for recent world championship)
- Squash: Cheap to stage and possibly set in any iconic Paris landscape, good enough medal chances, french president of the world federation (can't hurt),. Should be considered as a lock too, but it's squash and the Olympics, so you never know.
- Surfing: Decent following in the South (South) West, historical legitimy, succesfull previous events (world cup stages, recent 2017 Biarritz WC), bring some needed sexyness to the Games. Almost guaranted to be held in 3 consecutives games (2020-2028)
The 5th spot is more open IMHO, I could see a match between Boules, Roller (Speed roller beeing more likely than skateboarding) and baseball/softball (yes really) with an outside chance for Pelota (likely with the new kid on the block Frontball )
Anyway, that's all very hypotecal at that point.