Lewan

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
 
Aquatics (Water Polo)
The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.
 
Athletics (Marathon)
Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of
 
Badminton
Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.
 
Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.
 
Canoeing
The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.
 
Cricket
The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.
 
Fencing
We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.
 
In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.
 
Handball
Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.
 
Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.
 
Rowing
The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.
 
Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.
 
The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu
 
Rugby Sevens
Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.
 
As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.
 
Shooting
The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out
 
Squash
The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.
 
The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine
 
Triathlon
The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.
 
Weightlifting
The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.
 
Wrestling
The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
 
Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

- 73 Quotas in 15 Sports
 
https://comiteolimpicoportugal.pt/noticias/detalle-noticia/NEW-c4a7bec0-2573-44d2-acca-0aab99e6e038/cavalgar-ate-toquio-no-topo-da-forma/?id=NEW-b09adb00-b5eb-40d5-ae1d-410e8e591eef
 
Athletics (23):
Ana Cabecinha, Isaac Nader, João Coelho, Samuel Barata, Susana Godinho, Agate Sousa, Fatoumata Diallo, Pedro Pichardo, Irina Rodrigues, Pedro Buaró, Liliana Cá, Jéssica Inchude, Lorene Bazolo, Cátia Azevedo, Salomé Afonso, Mariana Machado, Eliana Bandeira, Vitória Oliveira, Tiago Pereira, Francisco Belo, Tsanko Arnaudov, Leandro Ramos
Breaking (1):
Vanessa Marina - B-girls
Canoeing (4):
Fernando Pimenta - K1 1000m
João Ribeiro e Messias Baptista - K2 500m
Teresa Portela - K1 500m
Cycling (7):
Nélson Oliveira e Rui Costa - RR
Nélson Oliveira e Rui Costa - ITT
Daniela Campos - RR
Raquel Queirós - XCO
Iúri Leitão e Rui Oliveira - Madison/Omnium
Maria Martins - Omnium
Equestrian (5):
Maria Caetano, Rita Ralão Duarte e João Moreira - Dressage (individual/team)
Duarte Seabra - Jumping
Manuel Grave - Eventing
Gymnastics (2):
Filipa Martins - Artística All-Around
Gabriel Albuquerque - Trampoline
Judo (7):
João Fernando - -81 kg
Jorge Fonseca - +100 kg
Catarina Costa  - -48 kg
Bárbara Timo - -63 kg
Taís Pina -  -70 kg
Patrícia Sampaio - -78 kg
Rochele Nunes -  +78 kg
Swimming (5):
Camila Rebelo – 200 backstroke
Diogo Ribeiro – 50 free, 100 free, 100 butterfly
João Costa – 100 backstroke
Miguel Nascimento – 50 free
Angélica André - Open water
Surf (2):
Teresa Bonvalot
Yolanda Hopkins
Tennis (2):
Nuno Borges
Francisco Cabral
Table Tennis (5):
Marcos Freitas, Tiago Apolónia e João Geraldo (Team / Individual)
Fu Yu e e Jieni Shao (Individual)
Shooting (1):
Maria Inês Barros - Trap
Triathlon (4):
Relay: Vasco Vilaça, Ricardo Batista, Melanie Santos e Maria Tomé
Melanie Santos e Maria Tomé
Vasco Vilaça, Ricardo Batista
Sailing (4):
Mafalda Pires - Kitesurf
Diogo Costa e Carolina João - 470
Eduardo Marques - ILCA 7
Skate (2):
Gustavo Ribeiro -Street
Thomas Augusto - Park

- 73 Quotas in 15 Sports
 
https://comiteolimpicoportugal.pt/noticias/detalle-noticia/NEW-c4a7bec0-2573-44d2-acca-0aab99e6e038/cavalgar-ate-toquio-no-topo-da-forma/?id=NEW-b09adb00-b5eb-40d5-ae1d-410e8e591eef
 
Athletics (23):
Ana Cabecinha, Isaac Nader, João Coelho, Samuel Barata, Susana Godinho, Agate Sousa, Fatoumata Diallo, Pedro Pichardo, Irina Rodrigues, Pedro Buaró, Liliana Cá, Jéssica Inchude, Lorene Bazolo, Cátia Azevedo, Salomé Afonso, Mariana Machado, Eliana Bandeira, Vitória Oliveira, Tiago Pereira, Francisco Belo, Tsanko Arnaudov, Leandro Ramos
Breaking (1):
Vanessa Marina - B-girls
Canoeing (4):
Fernando Pimenta - K1 1000m
João Ribeiro e Messias Baptista - K2 500m
Teresa Portela - K1 500m
Cycling (7):
Nélson Oliveira e Rui Costa - RR
Nélson Oliveira e Rui Costa - ITT
Daniela Campos - RR
Raquel Queirós - XCO
Iúri Leitão e Rui Oliveira - Madison/Omnium
Maria Martins - Omnium
Equestrian (5):
Maria Caetano, Rita Ralão Duarte e João Moreira - Dressage (individual/team)
Duarte Seabra - Jumping
Manuel Grave - Eventing
Gymnastics (2):
Filipa Martins - Artística All-Around
Gabriel Albuquerque - Trampoline
Judo (7):
João Fernando - -81 kg
Jorge Fonseca - +100 kg
Catarina Costa  - -48 kg
Bárbara Timo - -63 kg
Taís Pina -  -70 kg
Patrícia Sampaio - -78 kg
Rochele Nunes -  +78 kg
Swimming (5):
Camila Rebelo – 200 backstroke
Diogo Ribeiro – 50 free, 100 free, 100 butterfly
João Costa – 100 backstroke
Miguel Nascimento – 50 free
Angélica André - Open water
Surf (2):
Teresa Bonvalot
Yolanda Hopkins
Tennis (2):
Nuno Borges
Francisco Cabral
Table Tennis (5):
Marcos Freitas, Tiago Apolónia e João Geraldo (Team / Individual)
Fu Yu e e Jieni Shao (Individual)
Shooting (1):
Maria Inês Barros - Trap
Triathlon (4):
Relay: Vasco Vilaça, Ricardo Batista, Melanie Santos e Maria Tomé
Melanie Santos e Maria Tomé
Vasco Vilaça, Ricardo Batista
Sailing (4):
Mafalda Pires - Kitesurf
Diogo Costa e Carolina João - 470
Eduardo Marques - ILCA 7
Skate (2):
Gustavo Ribeiro -Street
Thomas Augusto - Park

My first time at Olympics! I hope for a good experience.
 
I will see several sports - beach volley, equestrian jumping, water polo, track cycling, canoe sprint and athletics.
 
Only 1 month to go
 
 

My first time at Olympics! I hope for a good experience.
 
I will see several sports - beach volley, equestrian jumping, water polo, track cycling, canoe sprint and athletics.
 
Only 1 month to go
 
 

My first time at Olympics! I hope for a good experience.
 
I will see several sports - beach volley, equestrian jumping, water polo, track cycling, canoe sprint and athletics.
 
Only 1 month to go
 
 

I’m trying to keep calm and not let my hopes too high on some miracle Olympic medal but it’s becoming quite difficult!!
 
Portugal caralhooooo!!! 

Matos Ribeiro steps one up from last year.
 
Really nice to have such a country in the mix

24-26
 
 
Portugal reached the OQT!

Quota Women's

Only 4 quotas for Portugal but we got 2 Golds in Olympic competitions. It was disappointing the K4 fails.
 
If I could, I would sign this result for next year's Olympics 

First medal for  in a World  Championships 

First medal for  in a World  Championships 

First medal for  in a World  Championships 

First medal for  in a World  Championships 

Portuguese National Championships
https://fpnatacao.pt/Resultados/provas2223/11cnjuvabsOPEN/index_us.html

Not the best pack I wanted, but its the possible right now. I prefer secure a few tickets at this stage than don´t have any opportunitie to buy again.
 
Canoe finals to see (i hope) the portuguese kayak's and an athletics session to be at Stade de France. The football is just for complete the pack with the cheapeast tickets available.
 

Not the best pack I wanted, but its the possible right now. I prefer secure a few tickets at this stage than don´t have any opportunitie to buy again.
 
Canoe finals to see (i hope) the portuguese kayak's and an athletics session to be at Stade de France. The football is just for complete the pack with the cheapeast tickets available.
 

Not the best pack I wanted, but its the possible right now. I prefer secure a few tickets at this stage than don´t have any opportunitie to buy again.
 
Canoe finals to see (i hope) the portuguese kayak's and an athletics session to be at Stade de France. The football is just for complete the pack with the cheapeast tickets available.
 

Soccer (football) in Marseille Jul. 24 - Only Cat.D are not available.
 
Basketball in Lille Jul. 30 (BKB 11 and BKB 12) - Are available Cat.B at 120€.
 
 
The sports still available are Athletics, Basketball, Beach Volley, Canoe Sprint, Football, Golf, Handball, Rugby, Sailing, Trampoline, Table Tennis, Swimming, Volleyball, Water Polo, Weighlifting and Wrestling.
 
Not so much options....