It’s been a tumultuous start for Team Canada, and I totally get the disappointment people have expressed in other threads. The COC wants to beat our Beijing count (26), but between injuries to some top medal contenders, a lack of depth in some sports, and chronic underfunding by the federal government, that's going to be a VERY tall order. It's still possible, though!
I’ve mapped out a daily medal forecast based on probability. Like others have said, the first two days were always going to be lean based on the event schedule. Things should pick up by the end of this week, and the second week looks even stronger. Full disclosure: I’m a casual fan, so I’m basing this on recent results, seasonal trends, and, well, vibes I guess.
What do y'all think? I'll keep this updated as the results roll in.
Day 1: 7 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Alpine skiing
Men's downhill
Cameron Alexander
LOW
14
Ski jumping
Women's normal hill individual
Abigail Strate
MED
11
Snowboarding
Men's big air
Francis Jobin
LOW
7
Speed skating
Women's 3000m
Isabelle Weidemann
MED
5
Valerie Maltais
LOW
🥉
Day 2: 8 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Figure Skating
Team event
Team Canada
LOW
5
Snowboarding
Men's parallel giant slalom
Arnaud Gaudet
LOW
6
Speed skating
Men’s 5000m
Ted Jan Bloemen
LOW
13
Day 3: 9 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Freestyle skiing
Women's slopestyle
Megan Oldham
HIGH
🥉
Naomi Urness
HIGH
7
Snowboarding
Women's big air
Laurie Blouin
LOW
14
Day 4: 10 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Curling
Mixed doubles
Team Canada
HIGH
5
Freestyle skiing
Men's slopestyle
Evan McEachran
LOW
16
Short-track speed skating
Mixed relay
Team Canada
HIGH
🥈
Day 5: 11 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Figure skating
Ice dance
Piper Gilles & Paul Poirier
LOW
🥉
Freestyle skiing
Women's moguls
Maia Schwinghammer
LOW
5
Day 6: 12 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Freestyle skiing
Men's moguls
Mikael Kingsbury
HIGH
🥈
Short-track speed skating
Men's 1000m
William Dandjinou
HIGH
4
Women's 500m
Courtney Sarault
HIGH
🥉
Snowboarding
Men's snowboard cross
Eliot Grondin
HIGH
🥈
Women's halfpipe
Elizabeth Hosking
LOW
8
Speed skating
Women's 5000m
Isabelle Weidemann
HIGH
5
Day 7: 13 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Speed skating
Men’s 10000m
Ted Jan Bloemen
LOW
9
Day 8: 14 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Short-track speed skating
Men's 1500m
William Dandjinou
HIGH
5
Speed Skating - Men’s 500m - Laurent Dubreuil - 🥉
Day 9: 15 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Freestyle skiing
Men's dual moguls
Mikael Kingsbury
HIGH
🥇
Julien Viel
LOW
14
Ski jumping
Women's large hill individual
Abigail Strate
MED
11
Day 10: 16 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Bobsleigh
Women's monobob
Cynthia Appiah
LOW
13
Freestyle skiing
Women's big air
Megan Oldham
HIGH
🥇
Naomi Urness
HIGH
6
Short-track speed skating
Women's 1000m
Courtney Sarault
HIGH
🥈
Day 11: 17 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Freestyle skiing
Men's big air
Dylan Deschamps
LOW
7
Snowboarding
Women's slopestyle
Laurie Blouin
LOW
5
Speed skating
Women's team pursuit
Team Canada
HIGH
🥇
Day 12: 18 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Freestyle skiing
Women's aerials
Marion Thenault
HIGH
7
Short-track speed skating
Men's 500m
Steven Dubois
HIGH
🥇
William Dandjinou
HIGH
DQ
Women's relay
Team Canada
HIGH
🥉
Snowboarding
Men's slopestyle
Mark McMorris
LOW
8
Day 13: 19 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Freestyle skiing
Men's aerials
Miha Fontaine
LOW
Ice hockey
Women's
Team Canada
HIGH
🥈
Day 14: 20 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Freestyle skiing
Men's halfpipe
Brendan Mackay
LOW
Women's ski cross
Marielle Thompson
MED
***
Short-track speed skating
Men's relay
Team Canada
HIGH
Women's 1500m
Courtney Sarault
HIGH
Speed skating
Women's 1500m
Ivanie Blondin
LOW
Day 15: 21 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Curling
Men's
Team
HIGH
Freestyle skiing
Men's ski cross
Reece Howden
HIGH
Mixed team aerials
Team
HIGH
Women's halfpipe
Cassie Sharp
MED
DNF*
Speed skating
Women's mass start
Ivanie Blondin
HIGH
Valerie Maltais
MED
Day 16: 22 February
Sport
Event
Potential medalist(s)
Competitor(s)
Probability
Result
Curling
Women's
Team Canada
HIGH
Ice hockey
Men's
Team Canada
HIGH