Dennis

Hoolwerf 
 
He got a lot of criticism, because he was 24th in the World Cup ranking on the mass start after 2/3 competitions. If he wouldn't be in the top 24 after the final competition today, the Netherlands would lose their maximum number of quota for men of 9. Got the pressure of a whole speed skating loving nation on his back and now he wins the final race! 

Hoolwerf 
 
He got a lot of criticism, because he was 24th in the World Cup ranking on the mass start after 2/3 competitions. If he wouldn't be in the top 24 after the final competition today, the Netherlands would lose their maximum number of quota for men of 9. Got the pressure of a whole speed skating loving nation on his back and now he wins the final race! 

Updated 5000m:
By points: x3 x3 x3
By time: x2
 
So not a lot of changes after division B, Japan took a quota from Norway.

Women's 3000m
Qualified by points: x3 x3 x2
Qualified by time:
Host nation quota:

Men's 5.000m provisional quota list before the B-Group has been skated:
 
100% certain if my calculations are correct: x3 x3 x3   Qualified on time for now, but can all change once the B-Group has skated:  Casey Dawson - 6:10.803 
Livio Wenger - 6:12.132 
Ethan Cepuran 6:12.378 
Felix Rijhnen 6:15.069 
Sverre Lunde Pedersen 6:15.116 
Hallgeir Engebråten 6:15.130 
 
 
Men's 10.000m final quota based on my calculations:
 
Qualified based on ranking:      x2   Qualified based on time:       
Reserves (in order):         
 
 Shen Hanyang misses out on a host quota by 0.7 seconds on a 10.000m 

Tried to make a quick calculation. Provisional quota's on the women's 500m after 7/8 races:
 
 x1 ()
 x1
 x1 
 x1
 x3
 x2
 x1 
 x3
 x1
 x2
 x3
 x2
 x2
 x3
 x1 
 x1 
 x2
 
Reserves, in order:         
 

So  Bos just won a Skeleton world cup? Pretty unique feat!

22:35 Stockholm time

Stolz

Very risky, I have a feeling we’ll lose some quotas because of this decision. 

Uff i must Google it in order to make sure that you are not talking about Mathieu :-D

Spoke with the ISU. The quota simulation is how the current standings are without looking at the rules. So basically what @NearPuphad calculated before this quota file was discovered is the correct way of calculating. 

Women's qualification
21 NOCs qualified, just like on the men's side only achieved the maximum number of skaters. The max skaters currently add up to 110.
 
  500m 1000m 1500m 3000m 5000m MS TP Max skaters 1             1 1 1           2 1   1     1   3 1 2 2 1 1 1 X 8 3 2 2 3 2 2 X 8 2 3 2 2 1 2 X 8   1 1 1 1 1   5   1 1         2 1 1 2     2   5     1 1 1 1   4 3 2 3 2 2 2 X 8 1 1 2 1   1   6 2 2       2   5 3 3 3 3 2 2 X 9 2 2 2 2 1 1 X 8 2 2 2 1   1 X 7 3 3 2 2 1 2 X 8 1             1   1 1     1   3 1 1 1         3 2 2 2 1   2   6

Assuming my interpretation of the qualification rules is correct / the ISU didn't change it on us, here are where we stand after round 3 of 4.
 
Men's qualification
23 NOCs, only achieves a maximum quota. Maximum number of skaters is 83, but the max skaters currently add up to 109. Lots of double starters in there, though.
 
  500m 1000m 1500m 5000m 10000m MS TP Max skaters           1   1   1 2 1 1 1   6 1 1       1   3 2 3 2 1 2 2 X 8 2 2 2       X 6           1   1           2   2 1 1           2 1 1 1         3 1 2 2 2 1     6 2 1 1 3 2 1 X 8 3 3 3 1 1 1   7 2 2 2     1   5 2 2 2     2 X 7 3 3 3 3 2 2 X 9 2 2 3 2   2 X 7     1 1       2 3 2 2     1   6 3 2 2 2 2 2 X 8       1   1   2       1 1     2           1   1 2 2 2 2   2 X 7

World record on the 5k for  Van der Poel 

World record on the 5k for  Van der Poel 

On December 13th we should be 99,9% certain as the final World Cup that counts towards the Olympic Qualification Rankings will finish on December 12th. Everything will be official by December 24th when the ISU will publish it's final provisional quota list. NOCs have to confirm these quotas by January 16th.
 
However, on the 10k Van der Poel is already 100% certain as the qualification works as follows:
 
The top 8 in the combined World Cup standings over 5k and 10k after the first 4 World Cup weekends will qualify directly with a maximum of 2 per NOC  The remaining skaters can qualify by skating one of the 4 fastest times over 10k during one of the 4 first World Cup weekends (with no more than 2 quota in total through option 1 and 2 combined per NOC). Nils will most likely qualify through option 1. However, the only 10k skated during the first 4 World Cup weekends was skated last week and he obliterated the competition by finishing more than 17 seconds in front of #2. So if some miracle happens and he will fall outside of the top 8 in the World Cup standings, he will always qualify based on time.
 
On the 5k, he is 99,9% certain as the top 14 in the World Cup standings as of mid December will qualify. He is currently ranked #1 with 120 points. In previous seasons, somewhere between 105 - 115 points was sufficient to be in the top 14 after 4 World Cup weekends. If a miracle happens and he falls outside of the top 14, he can still qualify based on time. Besides the top 14, 6 additional skaters will qualify based on season best times skated during a World Cup. Nils currently leads that time ranking, but a 5k will be skated in both Salt Lake City and Calgary, which are the fastest 2 tracks in the world.

Yes, you are right. China just needs to finish and not get disqualified during any of the following World Cup events. Right now they’re not on the reserve list as they have 0 points and no valid best time. 

According to my calculations these are the provisional quota's per NOC after World Cup 1 out of 4:
 
Men:
 
NOC Max # of different skaters 500m 1.000m 1.500m 3.000m 5.000m Mass Start Team Pursuit
4     1 1 1 1   5 2 1 1     1   8 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 7 3 2 2       3 1           1   1           1   1 1             2 1 1           3       1   2   2   1 1         7 2 2 1 1 1 1   8 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 7 3 3 3 1   1 3 4   2 1     1   7 2 3 2     1 3 1           1   9 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 8 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 2     1     1   7 2 2 2     2   7 2 2 2 3 2 2   3     1 1       2       1 1     1 1             7 1 2 2 2   2 3 *10.000m ranking is purely based on current combined World Cup standings over 5.000m/10.000m. Next week, the only 10.000m will be skated.
 
Total maximum number of different skaters is now 114, though only 83 different skaters per gender may start.
 
Reserves per distance (in order):
 
500m:        
1.000m:        
1.500m:         
5.000m:          
Mass Start:        
Team Pursuit:    
 
 currently first reserve on two distances. As long as I can remember, they've always qualified multiple skaters, so it would be a pity to see them missing out. I'm also hoping for  Gabriel Odor to qualify on the men's 1.500m and/or mass start.  also just outside of the qualifying spots
 
 only 2 skaters currently ranked high enough for a direct quotum on the 500m, which is probably the biggest surprise. .

According to my calculations these are the provisional quota's per NOC after World Cup 1 out of 4:
 
Women:
 
NOC Max # of different skaters 500m 1.000m 1.500m 3.000m 5.000m Mass Start Team Pursuit
1 1            
3 1 1       1  
7 1 1   2 1 1 3 8 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 7 2 3 2 2 1 2   7   1 2 2 1 2   3 1 1 1         7 2 2 2     1   4     1 1 1 1   8 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 6 1 1 2 1   1   7 2 2 1     2   9 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 6 1 1 1 1 1   3 7 2 2 2     2 3 8 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 1           2   1       1   3 1 1 1         7 3 2 2 1   2 3 *5.000m ranking is purely based on current combined World Cup standings over 3.000m/5.000m. Next week, the only 5.000m will be skated.
 
Total maximum number of different skaters is now 112, though only 83 different skaters per gender may start. However, many countries will probably let several skaters skate multiple distances, i.e.  will use only Sablikova and Zdrahalova (and maybe Kursova) to fill their 7 quota. 
 
Reserves per distance (in order):
 
500m:      
1.000m:       
1.500m:    
3.000m:         
Mass Start:        
Team Pursuit:  
 
 is the biggest country missing as Vanessa Herzog is injured. Hopefully she'll return in December to secure her spot.
 

According to my calculations these are the provisional quota's per NOC after World Cup 1 out of 4:
 
Men:
 
NOC Max # of different skaters 500m 1.000m 1.500m 3.000m 5.000m Mass Start Team Pursuit
4     1 1 1 1   5 2 1 1     1   8 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 7 3 2 2       3 1           1   1           1   1 1             2 1 1           3       1   2   2   1 1         7 2 2 1 1 1 1   8 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 7 3 3 3 1   1 3 4   2 1     1   7 2 3 2     1 3 1           1   9 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 8 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 2     1     1   7 2 2 2     2   7 2 2 2 3 2 2   3     1 1       2       1 1     1 1             7 1 2 2 2   2 3 *10.000m ranking is purely based on current combined World Cup standings over 5.000m/10.000m. Next week, the only 10.000m will be skated.
 
Total maximum number of different skaters is now 114, though only 83 different skaters per gender may start.
 
Reserves per distance (in order):
 
500m:        
1.000m:        
1.500m:         
5.000m:          
Mass Start:        
Team Pursuit:    
 
 currently first reserve on two distances. As long as I can remember, they've always qualified multiple skaters, so it would be a pity to see them missing out. I'm also hoping for  Gabriel Odor to qualify on the men's 1.500m and/or mass start.  also just outside of the qualifying spots
 
 only 2 skaters currently ranked high enough for a direct quotum on the 500m, which is probably the biggest surprise. .

According to my calculations these are the provisional quota's per NOC after World Cup 1 out of 4:
 
Women:
 
NOC Max # of different skaters 500m 1.000m 1.500m 3.000m 5.000m Mass Start Team Pursuit
1 1            
3 1 1       1  
7 1 1   2 1 1 3 8 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 7 2 3 2 2 1 2   7   1 2 2 1 2   3 1 1 1         7 2 2 2     1   4     1 1 1 1   8 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 6 1 1 2 1   1   7 2 2 1     2   9 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 6 1 1 1 1 1   3 7 2 2 2     2 3 8 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 1           2   1       1   3 1 1 1         7 3 2 2 1   2 3 *5.000m ranking is purely based on current combined World Cup standings over 3.000m/5.000m. Next week, the only 5.000m will be skated.
 
Total maximum number of different skaters is now 112, though only 83 different skaters per gender may start. However, many countries will probably let several skaters skate multiple distances, i.e.  will use only Sablikova and Zdrahalova (and maybe Kursova) to fill their 7 quota. 
 
Reserves per distance (in order):
 
500m:      
1.000m:       
1.500m:    
3.000m:         
Mass Start:        
Team Pursuit:  
 
 is the biggest country missing as Vanessa Herzog is injured. Hopefully she'll return in December to secure her spot.
 

is currently 1st reserve on the men's mass start 
 
Still 2 more world cups to go though, but that would be amazing!

is currently 1st reserve on the men's mass start 
 
Still 2 more world cups to go though, but that would be amazing!