If you mean Germany men I would say they are slightly improved from 4 years ago (barely lost to Japan the qualifier final to be core team in the sevens series next season). But now Ireland is taking sevens seriously (made great performances in a couple of tournaments beating some of the best teams in the world) and that is one hell of a tough opponent to add for Germany.
The chance is still there, I would say there are 10 teams that will qualify for sure (JPN obviously and AUS, FIJ, NZL, RSA, KEN, ARG, USA, GBR, FRA), so that leaves 2 spots to be contested between Germany, Canada, Samoa, Spain, Russia and Ireland. Six teams for two places but I think Samoa and Canada are slight favorites, so... let's say Germany has around 20% chance.