Last up, the Sculling crews... apologies in advance for what could be a rambling post.
Men's Single: Given the size of the field, I won't list all of the nations.
The draw is going to be all important here and it will be critical to avoid having to go in the repechage. At last year's World Champs, none of the single scullers who had to go through the repechage were able to progress any further than the quarterfinals. This result was repeated at the recent Europeans, where again, the crews who had to go through the repechage weren't able to raise their performance in the next round, and all missed out on the A-Final.
Based on the performances at the Europeans, are pretty well placed to secure one of the quotas and I would love to see take the other but I do have doubts about the GB sculler's (George Bourne) ability to maintain his form through the competition - he ran out of steam at the Europeans after he had to sprint to make the final.
Men's Double: - Given the size of the field I wont go through all the crews. Although Moldova just missed out on qualifying last year, I don't think this will be their regatta. Instead, I think will start as the favourite. They have stuck with the same crew from last year's world champs and should be able to secure the first quota.
The conditions at the Europeans weren't ideal and may have impacted some of the results making it difficult to evaluate current form. So, a lot is going to come down to the draw. The heat winners will have the benefit of not having to race the repechage on the afternoon of day 1. The results at the Europeans would suggest that Greece should get the second quota but I think could spring a surprise.
Men's Quad: - Norway and Spain are unlikely to figure in the battle for quotas and I think the competition will be too strong for Czechia. New Zealand and France are both new crews and could spring a surprise but will have their work cut out for them against more established crews.
USA are sticking with the same crew from last year, but they will need to have made significant steps forward if they are going to challenge for a quota. Ultimately, I think they will come up short.
will likely start as favourites - they just missed out on automatic qualification at the World Champs last year and finished 6th at the recent Europeans - and I think they have shown the consistency that will take them to a quota. The second will probably be a fight between Australia and Ukraine. Australia were 5th in Varese whilst Ukraine were down in 8th and they weren't able to show any real improvement at the Europeans so at the moment, I would suggest that will edge it.
Women's Single: - As with the men's single, the quotas could go anywhere. Czechia were the highest placed finisher at the recent Europeans but Switzerland won the B-Final in a quicker time.
As above, the draw is going to be hugely important - as with the men, at last year's world champs, none of the repechage rowers were able to progress beyond the quarterfinals - so whoever wins the 3 heats and progresses straight to the semifinals is going to have a huge advantage as they'll avoid the afternoon repechage. Worth bearing in mind that the repechages will start only 3 hours after the heats finish - that's not a huge amount of time to recover.
If I was pushed to make an early prediction, I'd be tempted to go with and perhaps
Women's Double: - It's all change for these crews - looks like every nation has made changes to their crews compared to who they fielded at the World Champs last year with the exception South Africa making it difficult to predict performance.
GB are a new crew for 2024 with Hodgkins-Byrne back from maternity break being joined by new name Becky Wilde. They've only raced once this year - the European Champs - where they won the B-Final, but they were beaten by both Czechia and Switzerland. It may be that they weren't able to adjust to the cross-wind conditions as well as the other crews or that they simply need more time to gel as a crew.
Czechia will be keen to avoid another Boat Underweight relegation. Despite that, they were able to fight their way to the A-Final of the Europeans and finished ahead of Switzerland.
Switzerland should be able to make it to the final, but they haven't shown the consistency that would put them in the frame for a quota.
My heart wants me to say that GB will get a quota, but I haven't seen enough of them to be able to say they are on a path to winning a spot in Paris so I think instead, I'd opt for and taking the quotas.
Women's Quad: - To my mind, should start as favourites for the first quota as they are the most consistent crew in the field. They were the first non-qualifier at last year's worlds and are coming off a silver medal at the Europeans.
Both Canada and the USA have made a couple of changes to the crews that competed at last year's world champs when they both ended up in the B Final and the Poland crew is another new setup for 2024. Having not seen any of them racing in 2024 it's difficult to gauge what impact that will have New Zealand is a new crew for 2024 but they are up against some pretty formidable crews so if they want to make an impact, they will need to hit the ground running - or should that be hit the water rowing? Either way, I don't see them booking a spot in Paris.
I think the second quota could well go to - they showed good form at the Europeans where they finished 4th and were just behind the German boat. The motivation to row at a home Olympics could well give them the extra turn of speed to be able to hold off their North American rivals.