Equestrian Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games

[Shravan Kumar 109]

13 minutes ago, dcro said:

And we have reached the mid-way point of the qualification period. Here are the updated individual qualification simulations for dressage and eventing...

 

DRESSAGE

Group A (2) - 

Denmark remains the main favorite for team qualification at the European Championships in Rotterdam. Interestingly, this group only has 4 unqualified nations left, so if Ireland or Finland also qualify a team (it is possible), then Norway would qualify by default.

 

Group B (2) - 

It was a strong June for Austria and Switzerland, who now replace France and Luxembourg in the provisional qualifying positions. It will be much harder for Luxembourg and Portugal than I anticipated, but I still believe they will make in the end. Belgium can be dangerous too.

 

Group C (2) -

Ukraine is all but safe, while Belarus moves into a qualifying position thanks to the Russian team qualification. It looks as though Belarus, Poland, Estonia and Slovakia will battle for the second spot.

 

Groups D/E (4) - 

Canada will gain a team quota, no doubt, just like Brazil or Mexico (Brazil interestingly still doesn't have anyone ranked, so they may struggle with minimum requirements). This group has been a disappointment though. Dominican Republic is safe for an individual spot, but that's about it. Chile is holding a spot however their rider is nowhere near the minimum requirements at this point. Just like Brazil; Argentina, Bermuda and Ecuador still haven't entered a single qualification event...

 

Group F (2) - 

South Africa should be able to qualify a team (provided Dittmann gets the second MER score). Palestine will move into a provisional qualification position when that happens.

 

Group G (2) -

While Singapore is leading the way, it very much looks as though Group G will have the same qualifiers as in Rio 2016 (New Zealand and South Korea).

 

Additional (1) - 

Henri Ruoste of Finland is holding the spot, but it is all but certain that some Group B nation will get this place in the final analysis.

 

 

Detailed rankings - HERE.

 

 

 

EVENTING
Group A (2) -

Netherlands and Sweden could both qualify through European Championships and/or Nations Cup. If that happens, then the Group A spots will be contested between Denmark and Finland.

 

Group B (2) -

Switzerland is almost a safe qualifier individually, but they have a chance for a team qualification as well. Once again, Group B should be the most competitive, with the likes of Switzerland, Belgium, Italy, Austria and Spain battling for qualification.

 

Group C (2) -

Eastern European charge has started, so it may be hard for Czech Republic to keep their place. Czechia should still be able to qualify an additional spot if they can't handle Russia though.

 

Group D (2) -

It should change after the Pan Ams. These spots will likely remain unfilled.

 

Group E (2) -

Ecuador overtook Brazil in the latest simulation. This Group can be quite intriguing, especially if Brazil fails to qualify a team in Lima. Puerto Rican rider could put herself in a great position if she does well at the upcoming Rebecca Farm International.

 

Group F (2) - N/A N/A

Still nobody here. Both South Africa and Zimbabwe started comptitions, but failed to gain points. Zimbabwe will have its next attempt this weekend.

 

Group G (2) -

Both India and Hong Kong need to complete a long format competition in order to meet the minimum requirements. If successful, they should look good for qualification (provided they don't get screwed by China and/or Thailand).

 

Additional (6) -

 

Reallocation (+2) -

 

Not much to discuss among the additional/reallocated spots. A lot can still change here.

 

 

Detailed rankings - HERE.

What is minimum requirement?

[dcro 10,210]

6 minutes ago, Shravan Kumar said:

What is minimum requirement?

 

45 or fewer penalties in dressage, clear jumping and no more than 75 seconds over the optimum time in cross-country, no more than 16 jumping penalties in show jumping.

 

Mirza however already has the minimum standard for the short format. So, really, his main task will be to go clear on a longer cross-country course (10 minutes long, as opposed to 6-7 minutes long courses of the short format competitions...).

[dcro 10,210]

JUMPING

Group A (2) -

Great Britain and Ireland have a lot of ranked riders, however they may both qualify a team. Denmark is currently the best of the rest, with Norway and Finland behind them.

 

Group B (2) - 

France and Belgium have a lot of riders towards the top, but still no quota for Belgium. France and Belgium are the main contenders of Group B for the team qualification, though.

 

Group C (2) -

Without Israel, Latvia is now on top with an impressive lead. I don't want to jinx him, but looks like Neretnieks' hard work is finally paying off. Behind Poland we have Estonia and Turkey lined up. Macedonia is not doing bad either.

 

Group F (2) -

Egypt has a huge lead, but this group doesn't seem to be very competitive. Syria is still holding the spot, even with their rider only competing once since February! Jordan and Saudi Arabia are close behind.

 

Group G (2) -

This group is even less competitive, and yet two more nations will qualify a team. Sri Lanka has overtaken Thailand and now sits in 3rd place.

 

Additional (1) -

Mexico should qualify a team, however, it's good to know that they should still qualify someone even if they fail massively in Lima.

 

 

Detailed rankings - HERE.

Edited July 4, 2019 by dcro

[dcro 10,210]

72% for Wagner today. Enough to instantly move him to the top of Group B standings with 952 points...

 

He needs more to be sure though.

[dcro 10,210]

Annabelle Collins finally started her Olympic campaign in Deauville. 68.413%, meaning first 184 points for her.

[hckošice 15,027]

Updated as of July 29th, 2019

[dcro 10,210]

will compete at Group G jumping qualifier on August 13.

Edited July 31, 2019 by dcro

[mrv86 3,151]

5 hours ago, dcro said:

will compete at Group G jumping qualifier on August 13.

 

I'm guessing it's New Zealand's to lose.

[dcro 10,210]

1 minute ago, mrv86 said:

 

I'm guessing it's New Zealand's to lose.

 

Yeah, however there are two quotas on offer.

[mrv86 3,151]

4 minutes ago, dcro said:

 

Yeah, however there are two quotas on offer.

 

So one good European team will have to sit out while we see mediocre teams. Sad