Medal Prospects for Team Canada for the Rest of the Games?

[Ashes 19]

It’s been a tumultuous start for Team Canada, and I totally get the disappointment people have expressed in other threads. The COC wants to beat our Beijing count (26), but between injuries to some top medal contenders, a lack of depth in some sports, and chronic underfunding by the federal government, that's going to be a VERY tall order. It's still possible, though!

I’ve mapped out a daily medal forecast based on probability. Like others have said, the first two days were always going to be lean based on the event schedule. Things should pick up by the end of this week, and the second week looks even stronger. Full disclosure: I’m a casual fan, so I’m basing this on recent results, seasonal trends, and, well, vibes I guess.

What do y'all think? I'll keep this updated as the results roll in.

 

Day 1: 7 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Alpine skiing	Men's downhill	Cameron Alexander	LOW	14
Ski jumping	Women's normal hill individual	Abigail Strate	MED	11
Snowboarding	Men's big air	Francis Jobin	LOW	7
Speed skating	Women's 3000m	Isabelle Weidemann	MED	5
		Valerie Maltais	LOW	🥉

 Day 2: 8 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Figure Skating	Team event	Team Canada	LOW	5
Snowboarding	Men's parallel giant slalom	Arnaud Gaudet	LOW	6
Speed skating	Men’s 5000m	Ted Jan Bloemen	LOW	13

 

 Day 3: 9 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Freestyle skiing	Women's slopestyle	Megan Oldham	HIGH
		Naomi Urness	HIGH
Snowboarding	Women's big air	Laurie Blouin	LOW	14

 Day 4: 10 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Curling	Mixed doubles	Team Canada	HIGH	TBD
Freestyle skiing	Men's slopestyle	Evan McEachran	LOW	16
Short-track speed skating	Mixed relay	Team Canada	HIGH

 Day 5: 11 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Figure skating	Ice dance	Piper Gilles & Paul Poirier	LOW
Freestyle skiing	Women's moguls	Maia Schwinghammer	LOW

 Day 6: 12 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Freestyle skiing	Men's moguls	Mikael Kingsbury	HIGH
Short-track speed skating	Men's 1000m	William Dandjinou	HIGH
	Women's 500m	Courtney Sarault	HIGH
Snowboarding	Men's snowboard cross	Eliot Grondin	HIGH
	Women's halfpipe	Elizabeth Hosking	LOW
Speed skating	Women's 5000m	Isabelle Weidemann	HIGH

 Day 7: 13 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Speed skating	Men’s 10000m	Ted Jan Bloemen	LOW

 Day 8: 14 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Short-track speed skating	Men's 1500m	William Dandjinou	HIGH

 Day 9: 15 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Freestyle skiing	Men's dual moguls	Mikael Kingsbury	HIGH
		Julien Viel	LOW
Ski jumping	Women's large hill individual	Abigail Strate	MED

 Day 10: 16 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Bobsleigh	Women's monobob	Cynthia Appiah	LOW
Freestyle skiing	Women's big air	Megan Oldham	HIGH
		Naomi Urness	HIGH
Short-track speed skating	Women's 1000m	Courtney Sarault	HIGH

 Day 11: 17 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Freestyle skiing	Men's big air	Dylan Deschamps	LOW
Snowboarding	Women's slopestyle	Laurie Blouin	LOW
Speed skating	Women's team pursuit	Team Canada	HIGH

 Day 12: 18 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Freestyle skiing	Women's aerials	Marion Thenault	HIGH
Short-track speed skating	Men's 500m	Steven Dubois	HIGH
		William Dandjinou	HIGH
	Women's relay	Team Canada	HIGH
Snowboarding	Men's slopestyle	Mark McMorris	LOW

Day 13: 19 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Freestyle skiing	Men's aerials	Miha Fontaine	LOW
Ice hockey	Women's	Team Canada	HIGH

 Day 14: 20 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Freestyle skiing	Men's halfpipe	Brendan Mackay	LOW
	Women's ski cross	Marielle Thompson	MED
Short-track speed skating	Men's relay	Team Canada	HIGH
	Women's 1500m	Courtney Sarault	HIGH
Speed skating	Women's 1500m	Ivanie Blondin	LOW

Day 15: 21 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Curling	Men's	Team	HIGH
Freestyle skiing	Men's ski cross	Reece Howden	HIGH
	Mixed team aerials	Team	HIGH
	Women's halfpipe	Cassie Sharp	MED
Speed skating	Women's mass start	Ivanie Blondin	HIGH
		Valerie Maltais	MED

Day 16: 22 February

Sport	Event	Potential medalist(s)
		Competitor(s)	Probability	Result
Curling	Women's	Team Canada	HIGH
Ice hockey	Men's	Team Canada	HIGH

 

 

 

[JockCartier 302]

Looking at my projections I had us winning 26... and we're still on pace for 25. 

 

Like you mentioned, it's just been a lot of dark horses, not so much favourites. They'll be good days, they'll be bad days. Nothing unusual about our conversion rate at this point. 

 

Looking across the board, Italy is killing it, they're at 9, I had them at 6... and on the other hand US is at 2, and I had them at 4. Aside from those two, everyone else is +/- 1 medal

 

 

[orangeman 2,416]

Even as a huge short track fan, it kills me that so many of our medals depend on them. This is the best team ever iced, but the sport is so volatile. A lot of winter sports are volatile, but Canada seems to specialize in the majority of them. Cross-country, biathlon, and the sliding sports are a little bit more consistent - and you're just going against a clock (not judges who can be.....confusing at times). 

 

It's not all about medals, just events to be excited to watch. At least Canada is good at the two team sports (allegedly...) so the games fill the schedule, too.

 

Interestingly, Canada has won medals in 9 different sports at each of the last 4 Olympics. It'd be nice to at least continue that streak, if not improve. We should get something in:

Speed Skating (check!)

Short Track

Freestyle

Snowboard

Curling

Hockey

 

We'd need another 3 sports. Ski Jumping? Bobsled? Figure Skating? Alpine? These would really have to be surprises, but surprises happen every Olympics. 

[JockCartier 302]

I think Canadians will watch anything if we win medals. We love a good bandwagon in the country!

 

I’ve long thought we should really invest in the nordic sports. It’s like 1/4-1/3 of the medals involve cross country skiing, and we barely rate.

 

It wouldn’t be easy, but the ROI on 10-20 world class skiers is a lot higher than anywhere else. Each of those often compete in 4-5 events each, and potential for multiple medals in everything but relays. 
 

And they are highly transferrable, maybe someone is never gonna be a top ten in cross country… but they could make a helluva biathlete, or nordic combiner.
 

And if nothing else this country has space and snow, and doesn’t require the infrastructure of most other sports. Get a snowmobile and pull groomer, and you can do it in a farmers field.

 

If we ever want to start cracking 30, I think we need to consistently be getting 5 or so from the nordic sports. As is, we kind of manufacture them the hard way.