Men's Road Cycling UCI World Tour 2024 (Tour de France)

[De_Gambassi 1,190]

3 hours ago, Maxim Fastovsky said:

With this amazing shape he's in right now, i'm guessing he's the top contender for gold in Paris? but maybe 2 golds?

 

During his post victory ITW on french television, he seemed doubtful about his Olympic participation.

 

-" anyway, we will see you in Paris next week"

 

- "he..., we will see" 

[AmericanHero40 191]

17 minutes ago, De_Gambassi said:

During his post victory ITW on french television, he seemed doubtful about his Olympic participation.

 

-" anyway, we will see you in Paris next week"

 

- "he..., we will see" 

Damn that's too bad

[Faramir 353]

4 hours ago, Maxim Fastovsky said:

With this amazing shape he's in right now, i'm guessing he's the top contender for gold in Paris? but maybe 2 golds?

 

he was only entered in the road race so no more than one.

[heywoodu 14,770]

4 hours ago, Maxim Fastovsky said:

With this amazing shape he's in right now, i'm guessing he's the top contender for gold in Paris? but maybe 2 golds?

 

In road cycling, at least in races like this one at the Olympics, there usually isn't really a single top contender. Especially with the ridiculously small peloton we have this year, thanks to the IOC, where it will be almost impossible to have any sense of control over the race for any team. 

 

Like, looking at the provisional entry lists so far, there's genuinely at least 40 riders who would not be a super surprising winner of any medal, but I think easily half the peloton has at least some sort of a chance. Obviously some more realistic than others, but you'd be able to pick 40-50 potential winners, all of whom would not be 'what the hell!' kind of surprises.

[AmericanHero40 191]

27 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

In road cycling, at least in races like this one at the Olympics, there usually isn't really a single top contender. Especially with the ridiculously small peloton we have this year, thanks to the IOC, where it will be almost impossible to have any sense of control over the race for any team. 

 

Like, looking at the provisional entry lists so far, there's genuinely at least 40 riders who would not be a super surprising winner of any medal, but I think easily half the peloton has at least some sort of a chance. Obviously some more realistic than others, but you'd be able to pick 40-50 potential winners, all of whom would not be 'what the hell!' kind of surprises.

This race is it comparable to a hilly TDF stage?

[heywoodu 14,770]

1 minute ago, Maxim Fastovsky said:

This race is it comparable to a hilly TDF stage?

Depends on the kind of hilly stage. If it's several hills that are slightly high but not very steep, no. If it's lots of short but punchy hills, kind of, yes. Pure sprinters aren't going to have a chance here, the only real sprinter that's probably going to be there in terms of the top riders is Girmay, but he is quite able to deal with punchy climbs as well (I think there will be too many of them here, so he's probably not going to be in the top, but he would certainly have better chances than the likes of Cavendish, Groenewegen, Philipsen and so on). On the other hand, pure climbers probably also won't really be among the favourites, the climbs are too explosive for them.

 

Difference is also that it's a 275km race, whereas in the TdF you'd rarely see a stage like this go (far) over 200km, usually it stays well under that.

 

There's also always a big difference between a one-day race and a similar stage as part of a long stage race.

[hckošice 14,711]

+ the Olympic race is without radios, riders do not have clue who is ahead, if every breakaway was caught, if a teammate captaon had a crash, puncture or any other issue etc...

 

Ask van Vleuten about Kiessenhofer in Tokyo

 

So, really anything can happen

Edited July 22 by hckošice

[justony 447]

Pogačar will not start in Paris. Official reason is he needs some rest, unofficial, his girlfriend Urška Žigart was not selected in Olympic team, though being our national champion, and lately 12th in GC on Giro Femminile,so...

[heywoodu 14,770]

52 minutes ago, justony said:

Pogačar will not start in Paris. Official reason is he needs some rest, unofficial, his girlfriend Urška Žigart was not selected in Olympic team, though being our national champion, and lately 12th in GC on Giro Femminile,so...

Tough choices though, the two that are selected are not 'clearly worse' than Zigart or anything, so any combination of two of those three would be a logical choice in it's own way..

[justony 447]

 

19 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Tough choices though, the two that are selected are not 'clearly worse' than Zigart or anything, so any combination of two of those three would be a logical choice in it's own way..

 

The problem is only that our national coach selected other two, Pintar mainly because she brought more points in last season Bujak of course as good time trialist. As for Žigart, he said, that she never was any good in one day races, but neither was Pintar. To be even more tragic president of our national federation and many others also had some concern about that decision. But in the end national coach has the final word.

 

So, even though Pogačar will not say that at loud, it is quite possible, his decision not taking part in Paris has something to do with this.

Edited July 23 by justony