Paris 2024 Medal Predictions - Australia

[dantm 32]

Australia Medal Predictions plus outside medal contenders.

I've taken into account recent performances including World Championships, Olympic trials etc.

Its the Olympics and it will be a case of win some and lose some,but hopefully the average will end up around my estimation.

 

 

Sport	M/F	Event	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Medal Chance	Name
Athletics	Women	20km Walk		1			Jemima Montag
Athletics	Women	High Jump	1				Nicola Olysagers and Eleanor Patterson
Athletics	Men	Pole Vault				1	Kurtis Marschall
Athletics	Women	Pole Vault			1		Nina Kennedy
Athletics	Men	Discus				1	Matthew Denny
Athletics	Women	Javelin			1		Kelsey Lee Barber and Mackenzie Little
Athletics	Women	1500m				1	Jessica Hull
Basketball	Men	Team				1	Mens
Basketball	Women	Team			1		Womens
Beach Volleyball	Women	Team				1	Mariafe and Clancy
Boxing	Women	75kg		1			Caitlin Parker
Canoeing	Women	K1		1			Jessica Fox
Canoeing	Women	C1	1				Jessica Fox
Canoeing	Women	C1X				1	Jessica Fox
Canoeing	Women	K4 500m			1		Womens
Canoeing	Men	K2 500m				1	Jean van der Westhuyzen/Thomas Green
Cycling BMX	Men	Park Freestyle		1			Logan Martin
Cycling BMX	Women	Racing	1				Saya Sakakibara
Cycling Road	Women	Time Trial				1	Grace Brown
Cycling Track	Men	Sprint Teams		1			Mens
Cycling Track	Men	Sprint Individual			1		Matthew Glaetzer and Matthew Richardson
Cycling Track	Women	Madison				1	Georgia Baker/Alexandra Manly
Cycling Track	Men	Keiren				1	Matthew Richardson/Matthew Glaetzer
Diving	Women	3m Springboard				1	Maddison Keeney
Diving	Men	10m Platform			1		Cassiel Rousseau
Equestrian	Mixed	3 Day Event			1		3 Day event -Teams
Field Hockey	Men	Team		1			Womens Team
Field Hockey	Women	Team				1	Mens Team
Football	Women	Team				1	Womens
Golf	Men	Individual				1	Mark Leishman and Cam Smith
Rowing	Men	Coxless Fours			1		Mens Team
Rowing	Women	Coxless Fours			1		Womens Team
Rowing	Women	Pairs		1			Jessica Morrison/Annabelle McIntyre
Rowing	Women	Single Sculls		1			Tara Rigney
Rowing	Men	Eights	1				Mens
Rowing	Women	Eights				1	Womens
Rugby 7s	Men	Teams				1	Mens team
Rugby 7s	Women	Teams				1	Womens
Sailing	Women	Skiff		1			Olivia Price/Evie Haseldine
Sailing	Men	ICLA Laser	1				Matt Wearn
Shooting	Men	Trap				1	Trap-James Willett
Shooting	Women	Trap			1		Laetisha Scanlan
Skateboarding	Women	Street Freestyle				1	Chloe Cavell
Skateboarding	Women	Park Freestyle			1		Arisa Trew
Skateboarding	Men	Park Freestyle	1				Keegan Palmer
Surfing	Women	Individual				1	Tyler Wright
Surfing	Men	Individual			1		Ethan Irwin
Swimming	Men	400m Free	1		1		Samuel Short and Elijah Winnington
Swimming	Men	4x100m Free		1			Mens
Swimming	Women	400m Free	1				Ariane Titmus
Swimming	Women	4x100m Free	1				Women
Swimming	Women	100m Fly				1	Emma McKeon
Swimming	Men	200m Free				1	Maximillian Guiliani
Swimming	Women	200m Free	1	1			Mollie O Callahan & Ariane Titmus
Swimming	Women	400m IM				1	Jenna Forrester
Swimming	Men	800m Free		1			Samuel Short
Swimming	Men	4x200m Free			1		Mens
Swimming	Women	100m Back		1		1	Kaylee McKeown and Iona Anderson
Swimming	Men	100m Free				1	Kyle Chalmers
Swimming	Men	200m Breast			1		Zac Stubblety Cook
Swimming	Women	100m Free	1		1		Mollie O Callahan & Shayna Jack
Swimming	Women	1500m Free			1		Lani Pallister
Swimming	Women	200m Fly			1		Elizabeth Deckers
Swimming	Women	4x200m Free	1				Women
Swimming	Men	50m Free	1				Cam McEvoy
Swimming	Women	200m Back	1			1	Kaylee McKeown and Jaclyn Barclay
Swimming	Men	100m Fly				1	Matt Temple
Swimming	Women	800m Free		1			Ariane Titmus
Swimming	Women	200m IM	1				Kaylee McKeown
Swimming	Mixed	4x100 Med	1				Mixed
Swimming	Men	1500m Free				1	Samuel Short
Swimming	Men	4x100 Med			1		Mens
Swimming	Women	50m Free		1			Shayna Jack
Swimming	Women	4x100 Med		1			Women
Swimming	Women	10km		1			Chelsea Grubeka
Tennis	Mixed	Mixed Doubles				1	Ebden/Hunter
Tennis	Women	Doubles				1	Hunter/Perez
Water Polo	Women	Team				1	Womens
Weightlifting	Women	81kg				1	Eileen Cikamatana
			Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
			16	17	19	52

Edited June 26, 2024 by dantm

[Sub13 24]

Swimming is the only discipline I’m well versed in so I’ll give my “contenders”. I’m being somewhat generous with these tbh.

 

Gold contenders

F

50 Free: 

100 Free: Mollie O’Callaghan, Shayna Jack

200 Free: Ariarne Titmus, Mollie O’Callaghan

400 Free: Ariarne Titmus

800 Free: Ariarne Titmus

1500 Free:

100 Back: Kaylee McKeown

200 Back: Kaylee McKeown

100 Fly: 

200 Fly: Lizzie Dekkers

100 Breast: 

200 Breast: 

200IM: Kaylee McKeown

400IM: 

4x100 Free: YES

4x200 Free: YES

Medley relay: (Only if USA is disqualified)

 

M

50 Free: Cam McEvoy

100 Free: Kyle Chalmers (extremely unlikely)

200 Free: 

400 Free: Sam Short, Elijah Winnington

800 Free: Sam Short

1500 Free:

100 Back: 

200 Back: 

100 Fly: Matt Temple (very outside)

200 Fly: 

100 Breast: 

200 Breast: Zac Stubblety-Cook

200IM: 

400IM: 

4x100 Free: No

4x200 Free: No

Medley relay: No

 

Medal contenders (not counting those in gold above)

F

50 Free: Shayna Jack, Meg Harris

100 Free: 

200 Free: 

400 Free:

800 Free: Lani Pallister

1500 Free: Lani Pallister

100 Back: Iona Anderson

200 Back: Jaclyn Barclay

100 Fly: 

200 Fly: 

100 Breast: 

200 Breast: 

200IM: 

400IM: 

4x100 Free: 

4x200 Free: 

Medley relay: Yes

 

M

50 Free: 

100 Free:

200 Free

400 Free:

800 Free: Elijah Winnington

1500 Free:

100 Back: 

200 Back: 

100 Fly: 

200 Fly: 

100 Breast: 

200 Breast: 

200IM: 

400IM: 

4x100 Free: Yes

4x200 Free: Yes

Medley relay: Yes

 

Plus a solid shot at Mixed Medley relay medal and outside shot at gold

[dantm 32]

Our mixed medley team looks strong and on times,its very close to US

Kaylee

Sam 

Temple

MOC

 

If MOC is in touch when she jumps in,its game on.

Edited June 26, 2024 by dantm

[Sub13 24]

3 hours ago, dantm said:

Our mixed medley team looks strong and on times,its very close to US

Kaylee

Sam 

Temple

MOC

 

If MOC is in touch when she jumps in,its game on.

This is true but Temple looked terrible at trials, he’ll have a double with the 100 fly and Kaylee will have a double with the 2IM. Chinese team will be fully fresh. Would say outside chance of gold at best

Edited June 26, 2024 by Sub13

[dantm 32]

Most of the men at trials didn't seem rested enough. Temple only recently went 50 low and there is no reason he cannot replicate in Paris.

The double taper with Trials/Worlds/Olympics has been in place since 2019 and it seems like it has worked in Australia's favour.

Ive got no doubt that Australia will step up again in Paris!

I just hope Europe and Asia do as well to keep the Americans at bay

 

[Sub13 24]

5 hours ago, dantm said:

Most of the men at trials didn't seem rested enough. Temple only recently went 50 low and there is no reason he cannot replicate in Paris.

The double taper with Trials/Worlds/Olympics has been in place since 2019 and it seems like it has worked in Australia's favour.

Ive got no doubt that Australia will step up again in Paris!

I just hope Europe and Asia do as well to keep the Americans at bay

 

There is part of me that believes we swam

in a very slow pool (women’s 200 free was really the only event faster than expected, maybe Kaylee 2IM) and weren’t fully rested, so maybe we’ll improve heaps in Paris. There’s also part of me that thinks I might be delusional. Surely none of the sprint free boys would risk not being tapered in such a close field.

 

However, that did kind of happen in Fukuoka so who knows. 
 

It would be so funny if all our swimmers who said “oh I’m really not happy with that time” and acted all sullen at trials all just went massive PBs in Paris. Like an orchestrated trolling.

[Dkats 298]

Is there an actual such thing as slow pools and fast pools? Like I know in the velodrome that’s a thing but in swimming? That would be interesting. 

[dantm 32]

Nice explanation here

https://www.physioinqmcmahonspoint.com.au/blog/swimming-pool-technology-fast-pools-v-slow-pools#:~:text=First of all%2C a fast,resistance that slows swimmers down.
 

Chandler Pool is an old pool that does have depth changes.

its not ideal and shouldnt be used where every 100 of a second mattered in qualifying 

[Dkats 298]

I’m guessing they should’ve held the trials at SOPAC then? Which is newer

 

Even the southport pool seemed to be faster but its outdoors so that wouldn’t suit trials, but those times in April were crazy considering no one was tapered 

 

[dantm 32]

SOPAC is nearly 30 years old but its still a fantastic pool.

it was designed based on those parameters from that article.

 

Definitely wouldve been a better option than Chandler.