GB Athletics

[mpjmcevoy 377]

1 hour ago, RussB said:

The 400m is going to be a dog fight. You have a bevy of athletes going 44 flat, and then Matt and Quincy going 43.7.

Doom from Belgium I think has to be respected for a bronze shout, in addition to the names we saw in London finishing behind MHS (including Dobson). I feel like he is going to have to go another PB and probably a 2 tenths PB to medal. 

I agree, but would say Dobson is the one athlete behind the current big two still taking chunks out of his PB - with respect, the idea of  a Brit now running 44.2 not being seen as  at least a medal shot is unprecedented, and I genuinely believe there might be a 44 flat in him even this year. as for the winner, that 43.7 by Matt was electric, but he didn't even run through...there's at least another tenth, possibly two in there.

[RussB 189]

7 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

I agree, but would say Dobson is the one athlete behind the current big two still taking chunks out of his PB - with respect, the idea of  a Brit now running 44.2 not being seen as  at least a medal shot is unprecedented, and I genuinely believe there might be a 44 flat in him even this year. as for the winner, that 43.7 by Matt was electric, but he didn't even run through...there's at least another tenth, possibly two in there.

Oh I’m in agreement re. Dobson, but then I’d argue Doom is in the same boat as Charlie. He really surprised me at the indoors and then at Europeans in beating Charlie in a super quick time.

 

Matt theoretically could go a bit quicker… whether he can deliver that under the pressure of an Olympic final I have no idea. 

[RussB 189]

I have just watched the 4x1 relay for the women, is there any chance they are actually a gold medal contender? It looks to me like there is more time on the changes (the one that was slow was 2->3) and they still ran a clear world lead.

 

Jamaicans don't look the same force this year, and the US behind Shacarri don't terrify me...

[Epic Failure 359]

Yes, they are, with a sizeable 'but' to follow.

 

It's a sprint relay. Obviously those go wrong pretty often (hopefully not for GBR this time though; keeping all things crossed!). And obviously basic foot speed - whilst being important - doesn't translate perfectly into success.

 

However, the bare facts are that the US has 10 women who have run faster than DAS or Darryl this year, and that doesn't include Gabby Thomas who likely would be on the 3rd bend. Their depth is just crazy.

 

Jamaica has 4 quicker than us but even they look a class below the US this year - there are 3 Americans who have run quicker than any of the Jamaicans.

 

So whilst gold isn't completely out of reach, it would still be a huge shock and likely require the US to have a mishap of some sort. beating this current version of Jamaica would surprise me less however.

Edited July 22, 2024 by Epic Failure

[RussB 189]

20 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

Yes, they are, with a sizeable 'but' to follow.

 

It's a sprint relay. Obviously those go wrong pretty often (hopefully not for GBR this time though; keeping all things crossed!). And obviously basic foot speed - whilst being important - doesn't translate perfectly into success.

 

However, the bare facts are that the US has 10 women who have run faster than DAS or Darryl this year, and that doesn't include Gabby Thomas who likely would be on the 3rd bend. Their depth is just crazy.

 

Jamaica has 4 quicker than us but even they look a class below the US this year - there are 3 Americans who have run quicker than any of the Jamaicans.

 

So whilst gold isn't completely out of reach, it would still be a huge shock and likely require the US to have a mishap of some sort. beating this current version of Jamaica would surprise me less however.

I think my framing might not be clear enough above. GBR I don't think in my lifetime has ever beaten either Jamaica or USA in the sprint relay in mens or womens at World level except the Athens 2004 Olympics [without a DNF]. I am simply raising the possibility we could shock the world a la 2004. It is a prospect I hadn't considered seriously until now.

 

So even this year, US are favs for sure, and Jamaica will surely medal. But to me the gap to the US doesn't seem insurmountable and the GBR ladies have the benefit of a settled team. Gabby finishes her races so well I'm not sure if she is the best 3rd leg runner in terms of foot speed, in fact I don't know who the US will select as their final 4. DAS and DN are probably in shape to run 10.9 100m at the moment, Lansiquot and Hunt around the 11 flat-11.05 mark from what we have seen form wise. I could see them doing a 41.3 range in Paris (their ceiling) with improved takeovers and then you're asking the US team a proper question to beat that.

 

Jamaica clearly has no Elaine, and I think there are questions over who is the 4th component of their quarter. Also SAFP appears to be on the downside (finally) of her glittering career with a 10.94 at trials. To me, I have GBR slight favourites to beat JAM, but USA will obviously remain clear favs for the gold.

Edited July 22, 2024 by RussB

[Epic Failure 359]

The women have won silver a couple of times in 'true' races (ie no DNF or DQs), beating the US in 2019 and Jamaica in 2017.  So they have form to upset one of them. And I agree that another silver here is not an unreasonable target on season's form.

 

I completely agree with you that I think can get down to a 41.2 or 41.3 with a perfect race. But my worry is that the can field the same team as Budapest if they want to (Davis-Terry-Thomas-Richardson), and that team ran 41.03. 

 

But that's all on paper! It's certainly exciting to think about the what ifs and hope that they pull it off!

 

 

 

To the men, they beat both in my brain in 2017. I know Bolt pulled up but if Coleman couldn't reel in NMB, I don't see 2017 version Bolt doing it from even further back. Safe to say, however, that the men do...not have the same likelihood to upset on current form.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 22, 2024 by Epic Failure

[RussB 189]

11 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

The women have won silver a couple of times in 'true' races (ie no DNF or DQs), beating the US in 2019 and Jamaica in 2017.  So they have form to upset one of them. And I agree that another silver here is not an unreasonable target on season's form.

 

I completely agree with you that I think can get down to a 41.2 or 41.3 with a perfect race. But my worry is that the can field the same team as Budapest if they want to (Davis-Terry-Thomas-Richardson), and that team ran 41.03. 

 

But that's all on paper! It's certainly exciting to think about the what ifs and hope that they pull it off!

 

 

 

To the men, they beat both in my brain in 2017. I know Bolt pulled up but if Coleman couldn't reel in NMB, I don't see 2017 version Bolt doing it from even further back. Safe to say, however, that the men do...not have the same likelihood to upset on current form.

 

 

 

 

Yes agree with the above. 41 flat is really high end so maybe I’m just holding out hope the US don’t execute as well as they did last year. Olympics seem to produce more varied results than Worlds looking back over recent history. For instance, the 2008 4x1 women’s champions? Belgium!! (Russia won on track) 

 

Sorry I meant both of them in one race; the 2017 had slipped my mind due to the focus on Bolt in a wheelchair stealing the limelight. 

[Epic Failure 359]

That 2008 event was just carnage! 8 of the 16 teams didn't get the baton round legally, and then the Russians would be DQed later as you say.

 

Fun for the chaos enthusiast in me, a missed opportunity for the British athletics fan in me!

[Orangehair43 285]

World athletics moving more and more towards a ranking system for the world champs next year. Very tough standards. We know how much the selectors hate world rankings so it won’t help out athletes . 

[Rafa Maciel 1,672]

With the track and field action being all but over, we can start to turn our attention to next year's World Champs.

 

Looking at the results, I think 21 athletes secured the WA qualifying standard this week:

 

Men's Events:

100m: Louie Hinchliffe (9.97)

400m: Matthew Hudson-Smith (43.44) / Charlie Dobson (44.48) 

800m: Max Burgin (1:43.50) 

1500m: Josh Kerr (3:27.79) / Neil Gourley (3:30.88)

 

Women's Events:

100m: Daryll Neita (10.92)

200m: Dina Asher Smith (22.22) / Daryll Neita 22.23

400m: Amber Anning (49.29) / Laviai Nielsen (50.69) / Victoria Ohuruogu (50.59)

800m: Keely Hodgkinson (1:56.72) / Jemma Reekie (1:58.01) / Phoebe Gill (1:58.47)

1500m: Georgia Bell (3:52.61) / Laura Muir (3:53.37) / Revee Walcott-Nolan (3:58.08)

3000m SC: Elizabeth Bird (9:04.35)

100m Hurdles: Cindy Sember (12.72)

400m Hurdles: Lina Nielsen (54.65)

Heptathlon: Katarina Johnson-Thompson (6844)