Team GB medal hopes - Cycling

[Dragon 2,026]

So, taking after RussB's efforts in swimming I thought I'd have a go at looking through Team GB's chances in cycling over the next few days

 

[Dragon 2,026]

Men - Road

 

Time Trial

 

Josh Tarling is, despite still being a teenager at the moment, one of the elite TT riders in the world.

European champion, world medalist. winner of the Chrono de Nations and still has massive potential for improvement in 2024 and beyond.

Remco Evenepoel will ride the TdF this year although Ganna won't.

If he gets to Paris fit and healthy a medal is there for the taking for Josh and it's not impossible that it could just be gold

 

Road Race

 

Described as a "punchy" course, it's thought not to be as tough as the one in Tokyo but the event is notoriously hard to predict.

Don't count on a GB medal but frankly you could say about any country, even Slovenia and Denmark.

A GB medal would definitely be a major surprise but not impossible

 

 

Edited February 8, 2024 by Dragon

[RussB 189]

Great to see similar threads to the swimming pop up!

 

I think the time trial will suit Tarling more than the world championship Glasgow course (notably that brutal steep ascent to the line) as it is flatter. I can’t wait to see him take on Ganna et al, and I don’t think gold is out of the question.
 

I agree about the logic of the road race… to some extent it’s a lottery and can come down to being a rider that is opportunistic and attacks at the right time and isn’t a big enough name to trigger immediate counter attacks. I’m not sure I could even guess with any certainty who will qualify for GB in the road race? I don’t get the impression G wants to do it this year, Yates brothers ? We have 4 quota spots I believe… and I’d expect Tarling to rest ahead of his exploits on the track the following week. Does Pidcock double up with mountain bike? Vernon? Lots of options, but not sure the chances of medal could be more than any of the other leading nations.

Edited February 9, 2024 by RussB

[mpjmcevoy 375]

4 hours ago, Dragon said:

Men - Road

 

Time Trial

 

Josh Tarling is, despite still being a teenager at the moment, one of the elite TT riders in the world.

European champion, world medalist. winner of the Chrono de Nations and still has massive potential for improvement in 2024 and beyond.

Remco Evenepoel will ride the TdF this year although Ganna won't.

If he gets to Paris fit and healthy a medal is there for the taking for Josh and it's not impossible that it could just be gold

 

Road Race

 

Described as a "punchy" course, it's thought not to be as tough as the one in Tokyo but the event is notoriously hard to predict.

Don't count on a GB medal but frankly you could say about any country, even Slovenia and Denmark.

A GB medal would definitely be a major surprise but not impossible

 

 

I'll admit I'm intrigued on who the Road Race team will be   - arguably their best shot at a RR medal on a punchy parcours will likely be on the MTB course. If so, it will be intriguing to consider what team GBR would bring - especially if other options like Ethan Hayter and Ethan Vernon are in the velodrome.

 

Is Bigham an option for the second TT spot, assuming a Giro/tour double probably knackers G?

[RussB 189]

Bigham will be limited to team pursuit in the velodrome so yes I would imagine he will get the 2nd ITT slot…

 

It’s a real puzzle trying to work out how the rest of the pieces will fall though. I assume Hayter will ride Omnium (if Walls doesn’t re-emerge to the form of 2021) and Madison might involve Tarling and the “5th” rider of the team pursuit. Sorry to derail this from the Road race already, I guess my point is that the track selection will have a domino effect on who is picked for the road race (I believe GB cycling will do it this way round)

Edited February 9, 2024 by RussB

[mpjmcevoy 375]

1 minute ago, RussB said:

Great to see similar threads to the swimming pop up!

 

I think the time trial will suit Tarling more than the world championship Glasgow course (notably that brutal steep ascent to the line) as it is flatter. 
 

I agree about the logic of the road race… to some extent it’s a lottery and can come down to being a rider that is opportunistic and attacks at the right time and isn’t a big enough name to trigger immediate counter attacks. I’m not sure I could even guess with any certainty who will qualify for GB in the road race? I don’t get the impression G wants to do it this year, Yates brothers ? We have 4 quota spots I believe… and I’d expect Tarling to rest ahead of his exploits on the track the following week. Does Pidcock double up with mountain bike? Vernon? Lots of options, but not sure the chances of medal could be more than any of the other leading nations.

The other thing is if Tarling and Hayter took technically road race/TT quotas, might that free up room for a spare in the Drome. Could the same logic extend to the women's pursuit crew, eg Josie Knight?

[RussB 189]

1 minute ago, mpjmcevoy said:

The other thing is if Tarling and Hayter took technically road race/TT quotas, might that free up room for a spare in the Drome. Could the same logic extend to the women's pursuit crew, eg Josie Knight?

This I would like clarification on too from others more

knowledgeable than me on the quotas. Can you have more than 1 person per gender do multiple events and add to the quota? E.g on men’s side if tarling goes ITT and Vernon is selected for the road race, could they both ride the endurance track events as “substitutes” meaning GB had 6 men to chose from for the track endurance?

 

I raised this on the other GB cycling thread For the women as I’m not sure how they even get to 5 track endurance riders, perhaps one of them goes in the road race or Zoe B in the time trial? Laura Kenny returning is another complication. 

[Dragon 2,026]

Men - Mountain Biking

 

Not only is Tom Pidcock Olympic champion and world champion but he's also a far better rider than he was in 2021. Logically he should be favourite to retain the title but there will be strong challenges from  van der Poel, Van Aert and Schurter depending on which Olympic events they'll ride.
 

 

 

[Dragon 2,026]

Men - BMX

 

BMX Racing

 

It's not that Britain is weak in this discipline, there are 3 men currently in world top 30 and any of them are capable of a podium finish on a good day, it's just that the French and Colombians especially are just so good. The French championships might even be superior to the Olympic final.

However, in a sport prone to mid-air collisions and spectacular wrecks, you can't rule out a British medal.

 

Freestyle

 

Kieran Reilly made a huge breakthrough in 2023, winning both the European Games and then the World Championships in Glasgow.

It's difficult to gauge how much of the world success came because it was a home competition but a medal, at least, must be a strong possibility.

There are also some strong back up riders on the GB Team.

[Dragon 2,026]

Men - Track

 

Sprint

 

The days of GB domination are long gone and Lavreysen must be one of the most nailed-on champions of the entire Games.

However Jack Carlin may well be one of the contenders for a minor medal.

 

Team Sprint

 

Although they missed out of a medal at the European Championships in January, a place in the bronze medal race in Paris is not out of the question.

Netherlands and France looked to be much superior to the rest.

 

Keirin

 

This looks to be another event you can mark down  as a Dutch gold but whoever races for GB must be considered as an outside bet for silver or bronze.

 

Team Pursuit

 

The most intriguing event of the whole men's track schedule. Britain have slowly rebuilt since Tokyo and, barring the disaster that was the 2023 World Championships, have established themselves back as one of the "Big Three" with Italy and Denmark. No medal in Paris would be considered a disaster but whether they can emerge as the best in the world may depend on how the road specialists can reintegrate in the track setup.

Hayter, Vernon, Bigham, Tanfield and Tarling looks a damn good team.

 

Madison

 

Whichever combination of talent gets chosen, they should at the very least be very competitive for a medal here.

 

Omnium

 

You have to fancy Ethan Hayter to win this.