Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[OlympicsFan 860]

On 5/14/2024 at 3:42 AM, Epic Failure said:

In fairness, if everyone in sport simply performed to their previously established best times, sport would be very dull. Great swimmers can perform well at their trials and then get their taper wrong. It's not unheard of.

 

Andrew in the 200IM is a prime example that a fast time is not a guarantee of a championship performance when the pressure is on. On the other hand, who predicted Hafnaoui would win the 400m free title in Tokyo? Of the 900 people who entered Swimswam's prediction competition that year, nobody had him even finishing in the top 4.

 

So whilst some of your points are correctly identifying where are not a medal favourite, none of the predictions the other poster made are beyond the realm of possibility. The women's 4x200m free, for example, would only require a poorly timed takeover for GBR to be in with a shot of the podium (although they probably would still be fighting Canada for that spot).

 

I said the following after the trials in April, and I stand by it.

 

 

Even China is lightyears ahead of the British women in the 4x200 free relay. It would probably need a disqualification of China AND Canada for GB to win bronze.

[Epic Failure 364]

5 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

Even China is lightyears ahead of the British women in the 4x200 free relay. It would probably need a disqualification of China AND Canada for GB to win bronze.

China were one of the 3 teams mentioned already way ahead of GBR - them, AUS and the USA.

 

If one of those 3 had a mishap, that's when GBR or Canada get in. Looking at their trials, Canada are probably slightly further ahead of GBR than I expected them to be, so they are definitely in pole position for taking advantage of a 'slip up'.

 

GBR's chances are all predicated on Freya Anderson being fit. If she isn't then our slim chances disappear, even in the case of a slip up ahead of us.

[dantm 32]

On 5/16/2024 at 7:18 AM, Epic Failure said:

China were one of the 3 teams mentioned already way ahead of GBR - them, AUS and the USA.

 

If one of those 3 had a mishap, that's when GBR or Canada get in. Looking at their trials, Canada are probably slightly further ahead of GBR than I expected them to be, so they are definitely in pole position for taking advantage of a 'slip up'.

 

GBR's chances are all predicated on Freya Anderson being fit. If she isn't then our slim chances disappear, even in the case of a slip up ahead of us.

For the 200m Free,Canada have a 1.53 swimmer (McIntosh) and now another 1.55 low swimmer with an additional 2 x 1.57 swimmers.

Canada are easily ahead of GB who are a clear 5th.

 

[Epic Failure 364]

9 minutes ago, dantm said:

For the 200m Free,Canada have a 1.53 swimmer (McIntosh) and now another 1.55 low swimmer with an additional 2 x 1.57 swimmers.

Canada are easily ahead of GB who are a clear 5th.

 

Hence the "slightly further ahead than I thought" part of my last comment...

 

The collective PBs of those 4 Canadians is about 1.5 seconds ahead of the PBs of the likely GBR quartet in Paris. So definitely a gap but hardly a crazy one. Obviously, if Oleksiak or Ruck were to get back to something close to their best, that gap would considerably widen.

[Josh 13,526]

55 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

Hence the "slightly further ahead than I thought" part of my last comment...

 

The collective PBs of those 4 Canadians is about 1.5 seconds ahead of the PBs of the likely GBR quartet in Paris. So definitely a gap but hardly a crazy one. Obviously, if Oleksiak or Ruck were to get back to something close to their best, that gap would considerably widen.

Well, Canada’s collective time at Trials compared to Great Britain’s time at Trials is about 5 seconds faster… 

 

McIntosh 2.5 seconds ahead of Colbert, Harvey 1 second ahead of Wood, Brousseau 0.5 of a second ahead of Harris, and O’Croinin 1 second ahead of Hope. All of the Canadians are in PB form too. Even with Anderson back somewhere near her best, it won’t be much of a contest. 
 

Of course, it’s possible that McIntosh might not swim in this relay at Paris… but unlikely IMO.

Edited May 17, 2024 by Josh

[Epic Failure 364]

4 minutes ago, Josh said:

Well, Canada’s collective time at Trials compared to Great Britain’s time at Trials is about 5 seconds faster… 

 

McIntosh 1.5 seconds ahead of Colbert, Harvey 1 second ahead of Wood, Brousseau 0.5 of a second ahead of Harris, and O’Croinin 1 second ahead of Hope. All of the Canadians are in PB form too. Even with Anderson back somewhere near her best, it won’t be much of a contest. 
 

Of course, it’s possible that McIntosh might not swim in this relay at Paris… but unlikely IMO.

It's a good thing we don't hand out Olympic finishing spots based on trials performance then, isn't it?

 

Also, Summer was 2.5s quicker than Colbert was, not 1.5.

 

Again, for the avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying that I'm favouring GBR over Canada. But I also do not believe that - if both teams are on form in Paris - the gap will be 5 seconds. I would not be surprised if it were around 1.5 seconds, however.

[Josh 13,526]

14 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

It's a good thing we don't hand out Olympic finishing spots based on trials performance then, isn't it?

 

Also, Summer was 2.5s quicker than Colbert was, not 1.5.

 

Again, for the avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying that I'm favouring GBR over Canada. But I also do not believe that - if both teams are on form in Paris - the gap will be 5 seconds. I would not be surprised if it were around 1.5 seconds, however.

Canada, United States, Australia, and China have been the dominant forces in this relay for a while. I don’t see that changing, unless one of them somehow get DQd. 

 

Oops 

 

Actually I don’t see the gap being either. Maybe around 2- 2.5 seconds with Anderson, otherwise probably not. 

Edited May 17, 2024 by Josh

[Epic Failure 364]

Oh, as I said earlier, without Anderson our chances are pretty much zero.

 

Although, all that being said, we are the current world silver medalists from the definitely-not-weird Doha WCs.

[Nish 7]

Predication for NZ by Gracenote seemed bit off as usual. 
 

I’d say 22-25 is a possibility 

 

Athletics: 2 to 3 - Kerr for High Jump, Walsh for shotput and McCartney for pole vault.

 

Canoeing - 1 Slalom (Luuka Jones for KX), 4 x for Sprint (K1 500 - 2 Fisher and Carrington, K2 500 Carrington & Hoskins, K4 500) 5 in total

 

Rugby 7s - Both men’s and women’s. 2

 

Cycling - Track - 6 (W Keirin, W Sprint, W Omnium, W Team Sprint, M Madison and M Omnium). Mountain Biking - Sam Gaze - 7 in total 

 

Rowing - 4 (both men’s and women’s single sculls, men’s 4s, women’s 4s)

 

Triathlon - 1 for Wilde 

 

Golf - Ko for women’s 

 

Swimming - 2 Clareburt and Fairweather 1 x each

 

Equestrian - 1 x for team eventing or atleast individual for Tim Price 

 

Sailing - 3 outside chances but it really depends on their day. 

 

Trampoline - maybe if Dylan delivers 2022 WC again

 

 

Edited May 19, 2024 by Nish

[Rafa Maciel 1,709]

12 minutes ago, Nish said:

Cycling - Track - 6 (W Keirin, W Sprint, W Omnium, W Team Sprint, M Madison and M Omnium). Mountain Biking - Sam Gaze - 7 in total 

Team Sprint or should that be Team Pursuit?