Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[Dkats 296]

1 hour ago, nitinsanker said:

 

1. Athletics 

 

Javelin : Neeraj chopra ( wch G- 23  S -22,  world rank 2 ) .... Medal chance -75% ... Gold chance - 50%

 

We have no one else, (not counting AG at all as level is overall low )

 

 

I do hope that Chopra wins again, that was certainly such a special moment in Indian Olympic sport, and the growth of Olympics viewership in India 

[sesma 4]

21 hours ago, nitinsanker said:

 India   I will try to be as scientific/ disciplined as possible to avoid over estimating chances for india which I have done in both tokyo and the disaster ( for india) which was Rio... 

 

So first I set a minimum criteria for performance - world Championship medal this Olympic cycle or Asian Games gold / silver ( only for sports where asian standard is high) or world ranking top 3 .  After that try to a % chance to eliminate absolutes . If done then in alphabetical order 

 

1. Athletics 

 

Javelin : Neeraj chopra ( wch G- 23  S -22,  world rank 2 ) .... Medal chance -75% ... Gold chance - 50%

 

We have no one else, (not counting AG at all as level is overall low )

 

2. Archery... 

 

Men's team... Ranked 2 , also AG silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

3.  Boxing 

 

We have won 2G , 4 B in wch .... But this was AIBA with many boycotts... 

 

50 kg.... Nikhat ( double world champ) .... Medal chance... 75% , Gold chance... 50% ...

 

57 Kg.... Manisha who won the bronze in wch is not there , but the new girl parveen is there who has won a medal in wch in non Olympic weight .... Medal chance... 25% 

 

76 .... Lovlina .... Reigning world champ, AG silver,  Medal chance... 50% , Gold chance 25% 

 

 

Men's  ( we do not have a quota yet so this subject to them winning quota) 

 

51 - amit phangal.... Deepak bohria won wch bronze but it will be amit at the last qualifier and  i think he can win quota he is AG gold and world champ silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

71 Nishant bohra... Wch bronze if he gets quota in last qualifier.... Medal chance 25%

 

4. Shooting 

 

We have won 21 quotas second after china but this is a sport where we have underperformed last two Olympics ... But will combine the events 

 

events.... Based on the criteria drawn 8 events meet them ....10M rifle ( M and W) , 50M 3 positions ( M and W) , mixed pistol , 10m pistol ( W), 25M pistol W, Skeet M ....  33% chance in each for medal, 15% for gold each event.... 

 

 

 

5. Wrestling 

 

50 kg W... Vinesh AG gold and 2 time bronze wch... Medal 50% medal 

 

53 kg W... Antim... Current world Championship bronze... 50% medal 

 

57 kg W.... Anshu silver in wch... 25% medal 

 

76 W - reethika, 56 M Aman do not meet criteria but since both are u23 Gold medallist can consider wch medal equivalent - 25% medal chance 

 

 

 

49 kg W .. Mirabhai chanu, world rank and world champ silver 2022 ... Medal chance... 50% ... Chances would be higher had she not been recovering from injury

 

Oops almost missed 

Badminton. . 

 

Men singles won 3 world Championship medals.... Medal chance... 25% 

 

Men doubles... World chmpionship medal and world rank top 3 .... Medal prospect - 50% and gold -25%

 

Total - Gold  - 2.5  ... Between 2-3

           Medals - 8.9 - between 8-9

 

Ha Ha....maybe gracenotes can steal my analysis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very good analysis..in hockey 25-30% chances are there for a medal

 

21 hours ago, nitinsanker said:

 India   I will try to be as scientific/ disciplined as possible to avoid over estimating chances for india which I have done in both tokyo and the disaster ( for india) which was Rio... 

 

So first I set a minimum criteria for performance - world Championship medal this Olympic cycle or Asian Games gold / silver ( only for sports where asian standard is high) or world ranking top 3 .  After that try to a % chance to eliminate absolutes . If done then in alphabetical order 

 

1. Athletics 

 

Javelin : Neeraj chopra ( wch G- 23  S -22,  world rank 2 ) .... Medal chance -75% ... Gold chance - 50%

 

We have no one else, (not counting AG at all as level is overall low )

 

2. Archery... 

 

Men's team... Ranked 2 , also AG silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

3.  Boxing 

 

We have won 2G , 4 B in wch .... But this was AIBA with many boycotts... 

 

50 kg.... Nikhat ( double world champ) .... Medal chance... 75% , Gold chance... 50% ...

 

57 Kg.... Manisha who won the bronze in wch is not there , but the new girl parveen is there who has won a medal in wch in non Olympic weight .... Medal chance... 25% 

 

76 .... Lovlina .... Reigning world champ, AG silver,  Medal chance... 50% , Gold chance 25% 

 

 

Men's  ( we do not have a quota yet so this subject to them winning quota) 

 

51 - amit phangal.... Deepak bohria won wch bronze but it will be amit at the last qualifier and  i think he can win quota he is AG gold and world champ silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

71 Nishant bohra... Wch bronze if he gets quota in last qualifier.... Medal chance 25%

 

4. Shooting 

 

We have won 21 quotas second after china but this is a sport where we have underperformed last two Olympics ... But will combine the events 

 

events.... Based on the criteria drawn 8 events meet them ....10M rifle ( M and W) , 50M 3 positions ( M and W) , mixed pistol , 10m pistol ( W), 25M pistol W, Skeet M ....  33% chance in each for medal, 15% for gold each event.... 

 

 

 

5. Wrestling 

 

50 kg W... Vinesh AG gold and 2 time bronze wch... Medal 50% medal 

 

53 kg W... Antim... Current world Championship bronze... 50% medal 

 

57 kg W.... Anshu silver in wch... 25% medal 

 

76 W - reethika, 56 M Aman do not meet criteria but since both are u23 Gold medallist can consider wch medal equivalent - 25% medal chance 

 

 

 

49 kg W .. Mirabhai chanu, world rank and world champ silver 2022 ... Medal chance... 50% ... Chances would be higher had she not been recovering from injury

 

Oops almost missed 

Badminton. . 

 

Men singles won 3 world Championship medals.... Medal chance... 25% 

 

Men doubles... World chmpionship medal and world rank top 3 .... Medal prospect - 50% and gold -25%

 

Total - Gold  - 2.5  ... Between 2-3

           Medals - 8.9 - between 8-9

 

Ha Ha....maybe gracenotes can steal my analysis

 

Hoping for shooting contingent winning 2-4 medals this time Edited May 15 by Sindo

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 5/12/2024 at 10:00 AM, ngyojiw said:

Belgium         2.5Gold/8.5Total

France           23.5G/52.5Total

Great Britain 15.5G/62.5Total

Italy                10.5G/43.5Total

Netherlands  15.5G/38.5Total

Spain               4.5G/18.5Total

USA                38.5G/121.5Total

Australia         13.5G/47.5Total
 

What do you guys think? Which slamdunk will you be on?

I think Netherlands will win 40+ medals.

Also: The Netherlands should win more medals than Germany, which would be quite something. I think they already did it at the Winter Olympics in 2018.

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 5/12/2024 at 10:22 AM, Fly_like_a_don said:

My Predictions for 

 

Wrestling*

A: Antim 53, Vinesh 50

B: Aman 57, Anshu 57

C: Nisha 68, Reetika 76

 

Boxing

D: Nikhat 50, Lovlina 75

 

Athletics 

E: Neeraj, Jena 

 

Badminton, Golf

F: Lakshya Sen, HS Prannoy, Satwik- Chirag, Aditi Ashok

 

Weightlifting, Table Tennis, Archery 

G: Mirabai 49, Women's Team TT, Men's Team Recurve 

 

Shooting*

H: Rhythm, Esha, Manu, Mixed AP 

I: Nancy, Aishwarya, Sift Kaur, Arjun, Ashi, Tilottama 

 

*Subject to Trials

 

I have classified the medal contenders into 9 groups and I'm hoping for a medal from each group.

 

 

Total: 9 medals

 

 

Who is „Jena“ (athletics)?

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 5/12/2024 at 1:13 PM, dantm said:

The Australian swim team is stronger now than in Tokyo.

Upcoming swimming trials for Australia and USA will be telling.

 

As for the overall team as it stands now,I would say we could exceed expectations with huge GOLD chances in the below events

Mens Swimming

50m Free

100m Free

400m Free

800m Free

200m Breastroke

Mens 4x 100m Free

Womens Swimming

100m Free

200m Free

400m Free

100m Backstroke

200m Backstroke

200m IM

Womens 4 x 100m Free

Womens 4 x 200m Free

10km 

Diving

10m Platform- Mens

Athletics

High Jump -Womens

Pole Vault - Womens

Rowing

Pairs -Womens

Eights -Mens

Cycling

BMX Park Freestyle -Mens

BMX Racing -Womens

Sailing

ICLA Laser -Mens

Slalom Canoeing

C1 - Rowing

C1X

Plus another stack of medal chances in

Swimming

Basketball

Athletics

Field Hockey 

Track Cycling

Surfing

Sprint Canoeing

 

 

 

 

Australia has a huge gold medal chance in men’s 4x100 free relay? Seems like a long shot, but who knows …

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 5/12/2024 at 3:10 PM, dantm said:

The Womens 50m Free evens out with the Mens 50m Free

Both Sjostrom and McEvoy will need to be well below their best to. lose

The Medley Relay is countered by the Womens 4 x200M Free relay

and ZSC evens out with Sam Short in both the 400m/800m especially without the Tunisian.

I wouldnt write off the Womens medley anyway.

The key is Breastroke and we only need one of our main swimmers to be sub 1.06 

Hodges and Strauch have been there and there are other options including Kaylee especially if MOC swims a Sub 58 back.

McEvoy needs to be well below his best to lose? Ever heard of Dressel and Proud?

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 5/13/2024 at 1:49 PM, TeamGB said:

I'll give a GB prediction a go, although I'm sure there will be some subconscious bias in there.

 

Artistic Swimming - 1 medal - Kate Shortman and Izzy Thorpe have really impressed me this year, and I think they could win a medal in the duet. Obviously artistic swimming isn't really my specialist subject, and it's difficult to compare due to the changing scoring systems, but I think they could earn bronze or maybe even silver.

Diving - 1 gold, 5 medals - I think GB can medal in all 4 of the synchros (W 3m most unlikely), and there are a few individual medal chances. We always manage to sneak a gold and I'm hopeful, but not confident, it could happen again.

Swimming - 3 Gold, 9 Medals - This is an event will plenty of medal chances but few nailed on golds. I think both mens Freestyle relays can win and I think another Gold can come from. Men's 100m Breast,50m Free, 200m Free and 200m IM. Other medal chances include Men's Medley, 100m Back, 400m IM, Women's 400m IM and 4x200m Free.

Archery - 1 medal - The women's recurve team have been unlucky so far in terms of qualification, but I think they are up there for a medal if both Bryony or Penny are on form.

Athletics - 2 Golds, 10 medals - This sport is in a similar situation to swimming, where we could potentially medal in all track events from 100m - 1500m for both genders, as well as all 5 relays, but similarly come away with a Tokyo sized haul. The contending field events include high jump, pole vault and heptathlon.

Boxing - 2 Golds, 4 medals - Again, not really my expertise but I think we may perform slightly worse than Tokyo.

Canoe Slalom - 3 Golds, 5 medals - The squad is extremely strong but things can very quickly go wrong in this sport. After missing Tokyo I think Joe Clarke will have the fire in his belly to get 2 golds in Kayak, and I think Kimberly can win the extreme event.

BMX freestyle - 2 medals - I think the battle for Gold in the mens event will be between Reilly and Martin. Worthington has not really impressed me in this Olympic cycle, but she may pull something Tokyo-esque out of the bag.

BMX racing - 1 Gold, 2 medals -  doing the test event double does give my confidence and I think the team will replicate the Tokyo results.

Mountain Biking - 1 Gold, 2 medals - Pidcock has to be up there in the Men's event and I think Evie Richards can translate her short track form into a medal.

Road Cycling - 1 medal - Josh Tarling in the time trial, and potentially even more in an unpredictable road race.

Track Cycling - 5 Golds, 6 medals - The growth of the women's sprint squad had been offset by the decline of the men's but I think we will still see more success than Tokyo.

Equestrian - 3 golds, 6 medals - Not really my expertise but I think 3 golds is possible. 

Field Hockey - 2 medals - Both teams should be up there, but I give stronger chances to the men.

Gymnastics - 3 golds, 5 medals - The men's team has grown but the women's is in tatters. I predict GB golds in Men's PH, Vault and Women's Trampoline

Judo - 1 medal - Chelsie Giles should medal, but Lucy Renshall is just too inconsistent to be a medal contender.

Modern Pentathlon - 1 Gold, 2 medals - Joe can defend his title and Bryson should be in the conversation for the women's

Rowing - 6 golds, 7 medals - Reborn after the disaster of Tokyo, British rowing have strong chances to retain all 2023 world titles and add the mens Pair.

Sailing - 3 Golds, 5 Medals - Again very difficult to predict but having qualified all 10 boats again, I think we can match Tokyo

Shooting - 2 golds, 4 medals - It all really depends on wether Llewellyn qualifies, but I think we are contenders in all 5 shotgun events, and 2 women's rifle events.

Skateboarding - 1 Gold, 1 Medal - Sky focusing just on one sport should be enough to win olympic gold.

Sport Climbing - 1 Medal - Toby Roberts is definitely a gold contender in the Combined.

Taekwondo - 2 Gold, 4 medals - All 4 athletes should contend for gold and I would hope at least 2 of them get there.

Triathlon - 2 Gold , 3 medals - The women's team is insanely strong, and I think Yee can go one step further than Tokyo. The mixed relay worries me as we don't have a strong 2nd male athlete.

Weightlifting - 1 medal -  Emily Campbell is up there for 2nd behind the Chinese athlete.

 

Just counted them up and that makes 40 golds and 90 medals, so maybe my subconscious bias was pretty strong.

 

Nonetheless, I would expect an improvement on Tokyo to 30ish golds and 70 medals.

 

 

Swimming: GB winning a medal in men’s 100 back/women‘s 4x200 free and to some degree men’s 400 IM (Marchand, Foster, Clareburt) would be Haufe surprise to say the least.

Athletics: There isn’t a single track event except women’s 800 m and maybe men’s 1500 m where I would bet on a medal for GB. I absolutely don’t see where a medal in women’s 400 m is supposed to come from …

Edited May 15 by OlympicsFan

[Faramir 365]

10 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

Who is „Jena“ (athletics)?

A javelin thrower. Unlikely to win a medal.

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 5/14/2024 at 1:31 AM, mpjmcevoy said:

My own predictions at the moment

 

 

Artistic Swimming

 

Likely : 0 medal

Stretch : 1 medal, Women's Pair

 

The GB pair have made sensational improvement in a sport that not a bugger who watches the pair patriotically will understand! There's no way for someone like me to grade them except by reference to previous results, but they seem to be consistently there or therebouts, even at global level. More likely to finish commendably but medalless, but a sneaky bronze is not out of the question

 

Diving 

 

Likely : 4 medals : , Spendolini-Sirieux, 10m, W 10mS, M 10mS, M 3m S

Stretch : 6 medals, 1 gold : The above plus Laugher 3m, W3 mS. - M10mS for the stretch gold

 

One of GBR's strongest events, despite Chinese dominance. 3 medals would genuinely be the bottom of expectations. Laugher has rediscovered his unfortunate one flakey dive per comp habit, but GBR are undoubtedly the second best nation after China in the absence of Russia, and I would imagine at worst 1 or 2 silvers. Andrea SS has made herself look a woman apart behind the two Chinese, and while Laugher could arguably hit a gold if all went right on the day, Andrea looks more likely to get a medal in my view. The best medal bets, however, are clearly the synchros - 2 are heavy favourites for a medal, 3 likely shouts and all 4 possibles.

 

Swimming -

 

Likely : 1 gold (M4x2 free), 7 medals : M50mFr, M 200mFr, M100mBr, M200mBk, M200IM, M4x100MedR, M4x200FrR,

Stretch : 4 gold, 14 medals (golds, M4x 2 free, M100mBr, M200mFr, M 4 x 100mMed), medals : Above + M100mFr , 2nd M200fr, 2nd M200mIM, M4 x 100mFr, X4 x 100mMed, W200mIM, Mens 10k

 

I'm insanely optimistic here - no way GBR win anything like 14 medals - hell, they might well  not win the seven - but I've rarely seen a squad with just so much depth - this isn't your grandad's 1 breaststroker and some cabbages squad. The 4 x 200 may be the likeliest gold of the entire Games for GBR, though not certain, of course.

 

Archery

 

Likely : 0 medal

Stretch : 1 medal - W Ind

 

I just can't give a chance to a team that's still by no means set to even qualify. Healy of two years ago was bordering on a likely. No longer.

 

Athletics

 

 

Likely: 4 medals : M4x100, W4x100, W800, WHept

Good shout : M100, M400, M1500, W200, W PV, W4x100

Stretch : 19 medals. W100, M200, M800, 2nd W800, 2nd M1500, W1500, W100h, M4x400, X 4x400

 

Athletics, because of its depth and global appeal is always the Roulette wheel; you spin and you hope. Hence the extra category for those not LIKELY to medal, but in with a very genuine chance, and you'd hope to pick up at least a couple of them in a good wind. The likely 4; the sprint relays, Keely and KJT are the only four who really ought to medal if they maintain fitness and form. The stretch group are those who you would not be shocked to medal in exactly, but you kind of expect not to, and while a medal or two from this group would be lovely, nobody's counting on them. Of these the W1500 is the hardest to admit, but Laura's time may be up - thank goodness she got her global medals in the end.

 

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that there's a miracle marathon bronze in a tactical race, or Cindy 'christmas' Sember ("why does she run at Christmas? Because it's Cindy Sember!") nudges a medal, but that would be heroic wish fulfilment.

 

Overall though, GBR are in the odd position of quite a lot of shots, perhaps more than usual, but no gold medal favourites at all. That said, they must credibly have 5 or 6 gold 'chances'

 

Basketball : Will not enter

 

Badminton : 

 

Likely : 0 medals. Neither Kirsty nor the men's doubles team seem likely to trouble the later stages of their events

 

Boxing

 

 

Canoe Slalom -

 

Likely: 3 medals - MK1, MKX, WKX

Stretch : 5 medals - above plus WC1, WK1

 

Canoe Slalom has quietly become a hitter for GB, not least because of Joe Clarke, who seems to have developed a Laura Kenny like zen about the KX that belies its seeming randomness. Kimberley Wood, likewise seems a strong shout in WKX, even if her colleague Mallory Franklin looks a better traditional medal shout. I think there is still, technically, the possibility of another MKX speciaist taking the second seat behind Joe, as Burgess has not yet been given  the place.

 

Canoe Sprint : Unlikely to enter

 

Cycling :

 

BMX freestyle -

Likely : 1 medal

Stretch: 2 medals, 1 gold

 

BMX racing

Likely : 1 medal

Stretch: 2 medals, 1 gold

 

Mountain Biking -

 

Likely : 1 medal

Stretch:  1 gold

 

Road Cycling

 

Likely : 1 medal (MTT)

Stretch: 3 medals, above + WTT and WRR

 

Track Cycling - 

Likely : 7-9 medals, 2 gold (W Spr and TSpri)

Stretch : 10 medals, 5-6 gold, mainly from Finucane and Archibald

 

The team is possibly the strongest its ever been en masse, albeit with gaps (men's road race, men's track sprint events). You can never fully manage madisons, omniums and Kierins, but I could make an argument why GBR are either first or second favourite for almost every track event outside men's sprint events. The big danger is the Italian endurance women, Kopecky and Wild

 

Equestrian - 

Likely : 4 medals

Stretch 5-7 medals, 3 gold

 

GBR are always competitive in Horse Valley, but the rise of Charlotte Fry is crucial. No events are off limits here, and double individual medals cannot be ruled out in those events

 

Field Hockey -

 

Likely 0 medals

Stretch 1 medal, Men

 

Fencing : probably no entry

 

Football : No entry.

 

Real dropped ball here, England's women, supplemented with a handful of scots and Welsh would have been serious players here.

 

Gymnastics - 

 

Artistic :

Likely : 2 medals : MPommel, MVault

Stretch 4 medals :  above plus MTeam, W Uneven Bars

 

The women's team, god help 'em, are in absolute tatters; the original likely team of Downie Sr, Ondine, Gadirova Jess, Kinsella and a.n other would have been super competitive across almost all events.  As it is, Beckie's outside chance on Bars is just about all she is likely to right.

 

The men's team are jjuggling talent and injury. Obviously if Whitlock completes clean, he wins - his D score is simply too high for anyone else. The game is in the if. Jarman on Vault is also likely to be worth a shout, and if everyone hits it, the men's team could be there or there abouts.

 

Rhythmic : nada

 

Trampoline:

 

Likely : 1 medal, Women

 

Golf

 

Likely: 0

Stretch : 2 medals, 1 in each event.

 

Golf is just about a crapshoot as a sport at the best of times, but GBR should get 3 shots in the men's event, and a punchers chance in the women's

 

Handball : will not enter

 

Judo -

 

Likely 1 medal - Chelsie Giles

Stretch - 2, Lucy Renshaw

 

IF GB boxing remains strongish, and GB Taekwondo are back on an upward curve, GB Judo is a shambles, yet again elevated by the luck of having a real star in Giles.

 

Modern Pentathlon -

 

Likely, 1 medal, Men's

Stretch, 2 medals 1 gold

 

Rowing -

Likely : 2 golds, 5 medals

Stretch : 8 medals, 4 golds

 

Rugby sevens :

 

Stretch 1 medal  :

GBR have been in decent form recently. If they can keep that going, get a bit of luck, a medal is doable.

 

Sailing

Likely 3-4 medals, 1 gold

Stretch 5-6 medals 2 gold

 

 

Shooting :

Likely 0 medals

Stretch 3 medals

 

This is an 'all right on the night' situation. My gut says 1 medal will be found between Macintosh and Amber

 

Surfing : No entrant

 

Skateboarding -

 

Likely:1 Medal -

If She's fit, Sky Brown should be there at the pointy end.

 

Sport Climbing -

Likely :1 Medal -

 

Toby Roberts looks a major prospect.

 

Taekwondo -

 

Likely 2 medals 

Stretch3- 4 medals

 

Tennis :

stretch, 1 medal, men's doubles.

 

GBR has two of the worlds best specialists, and Dan Evans is super handy

 

Table Tennis

 

Likely : zilch

 

Triathlon -

 

Likey 3 medals, 1 in each event

Stretch 4 medals, 1 gold

 

Not inconceivable GBR get two medals in the women's event if Georgia Taylor Brown and Potter are both at the front of affairs - two of the strongest runners in the field.

 

Volleyball

 

0 medals

 

Weightlifting -

Stretch 1 medal -

 

if she were fully fit, Emily Campbell would be a likely. but she's not, and hasn't been for a while..

 

Wrestling : no entrant

 

So my conservative estimate is around 55 medals and around 18 gold

 

My dreaming estimate ia closer to double that on both counts.

 

I fully expect my caution to be closer to reality.

1) I wouldn’t say that a medal in men’s 200 back and men’s medley relay is likely for GB. They certainly have a chance, but I wouldn’t say more than 50 %.
2) I don’t think that GB „credibly“ has 5 or 6 gold medal chances in athletics. I think only the following could win gold without it being a big upset:

- Women’s 800 m

- Women’s Pole vault

- Maybe women’s heptathlon (Thiam)

- Maybe men’s 1500 m (Ingebrigtsen)

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 5/14/2024 at 2:07 AM, dantm said:

Overall, congratulations to Team GB for topping the medal tally and destroying both the USA and China 

 

Actually,I dont really know a huge amount about Equestrian and Judo,but all the very best anyways!

 

Swimming though, I'll bite and pick it apart!

"..I think both men's Freestyle relays can win..  "

 

4 x100m Free -Mens

The USA are stacked.

They have 10 current swimmers under 48 seconds,with 4 swimmers under 47.5

GB have Richards at 47.45 and another 2 under 48 seconds,plus Whittle at 48.0

GB will be fighting China and Australia for the minor medals

 

4 x 200m Free -Mens

Agreed!

Team GB will head in Paris as heavy favourites for Gold in the 4 x200m Free

 

"......another Gold can come from. Men's 100m Breast,50m Free, 200m Free and 200m IM...."

 

Mens 100m Breastroke.

If Peaty is any where near his best, he will win.

Qin is currently at 57.6,which Peaty hasnt been there since 2021,but no doubt the recent British trials has indicated he is getting back.

 

Mens 50m Free

Already discussed,but McEvoy is the fastest this year and the fastest last year. Only a peak Caleb Dressel has been 0.02 quicker back in 2019

The US and Australian trials will sort this pecking order out very quickly.

 

Mens 200m Free

Popovic and now Martens are quicker than the British Record.There is a stack of swimmers sitting at 1.44 and could be the closest race at Paris.

Possible that GB could win Gold and possible that may not even medal.

 

Mens 200 IM

Who is going to beat Marchand in Paris?

Wang is still good and the Americans (Casais and even Michael Andrew) have all been quicker than Dean or Scott.

 

 

"......Other medal chances include Men's Medley, 100m Back, 400m IM, Women's 400m IM and 4x200m Free...."

 

Men's Medley

Depends on Peaty but Bronze is possible.China and USA will fight this out.

 

100m Back

Not sure if you meant /men or Women here but

Womens -Dawson will be in a battle for Bronze with Kaylee and Regan expected to dominate.

Even Bronze will be tough.The US trials for that second spot will be a blood bath and even MOC swam 58.0 in Australia last week for laughs.

 

Mens:

Oliver Morgans 52.70 could get him into the final but I cant see a medal.

 

Mens 400m IM

With Marchand,Kalaiz,Foster and Clareburt,I'm not sure that GB will be challenging here for any medal.

 

Womens 400m IM

Same as the Men.There is a stack of current swimmers well ahead of the British record

McIntosh is untouchable.Katie Grimes has been 4.32 recently as has Jenn Forrester of Australia. Kaylee just swum 4.28 but likely not to swim it in Paris!

 

Womens 4 x 200m Free

Australia, USA and China by a long way!

Not sure how GB will even consider a medal here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t see how Dawson could be in the medal race in women’s 100 back. She would probably have to break her British record, given that at least the second American (+ O‘Callaghan, if she swims it) will be 58 low as well. I think GB not having anyone in the women’s 100 back final if far more likely than them winning a medal.