Road to Beijing 2022 Poll #19 | How many Gold Medals will China get in Beijing 2022?

[rafalgorka 1,532]

Poll #19

[phelps 7,680]

I'm pretty sure they've been granted to win at least 10 gold medals...

 

remembering Beijing 2008, I expect biased judges in all kind of freestyle events, figure skating (even if they might not need it in that case) and short track... 

[hckošice 14,836]

7-8,

 

but may be more and may be also less.

[Topicmaster1010 4,182]

Let's try to break this down by event:

 

Events where they should be the gold medal favourite (6):

Freestyle Skiing- Women's Halfpipe

Freestyle Skiing- Women's Aerials

Freestyle Skiing- Mixed Team Aeriails

Short Track- Men's 1500m

Short Track- Mixed 2000m Relay

Speed Skating- Men's 1500m

 

Events where they have a good chance of winning gold (8):

Figure Skating- Pairs

Freestyle Skiing- Women's Big Air

Freestyle Skiing- Women's Slopestyle

Freestyle Skiing- Men's Aerials

Short Track- Men's 500m

Short Track- Men's 1000m

Short Track- Men's 3000m Relay

Speed Skating- Men's 500m

 

Events where they have a small chance of winning gold (8):

Snowboarding- Women's Halfpipe

Snowboarding- Men's Slopestyle & Big Air

Any of the women's short track events

Speed Skating- Men's 1000m

 

Wildcards because of home track(3):

Men's Skeleton

Women's Bobsleigh

 

So that's 25 events listed. Short Track is very unpredictable though so they may not be in the right tiers necessarily. I originally voted 7-8 golds but now making this list I very well wouldn't be surprised if they won 10+ gold especially with home judging bias.

[rafalgorka 1,532]

@Vic Liu what you think?

[Vic Liu 1,682]

33 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

@Vic Liu what you think?

@Topicmaster1010's breakdown is quite right. I would say 7-8 golds are fair. 9-10 golds are possible considered host advantage. I voted 9-10 and I hope our athletes have a good performance at home.

[thevorminatheria 4]

I see China winning 3 gold medals in short track (quite volatile sport to count on) and 3 gold medals in freestyle skiing. They will struggle to go beyond 6 gold medals. They do have limited opportunities in snowboard and speed skating but even considering some upside in those sports more than 6 is stiil quite hard for them to achieve.

 

Overall they should win around 18 medals, which is double the total they won in 2019. That's already quite the home advantage boost. I get the point about favourable judges but it is not enough to move the needle, maybe it could help the total tally in the Short Track events but elsewhere I do not see judging being of much help. For example, Wenjing/Cong could get some favourable scores in the pairs' figure skating competition but in my opinion not enough to beat all three Russian couples.