Kenya beating South Africa wasn't that much of a shock though. South Africa's form in the buildup had been terrible. They have bounced back a bit this season but towards the end of last year's sevens series South Africa were really not that much better than Kenya.
The surprising part was that Kenya was probably in a en even worse form going in. They're starting to rebuild with fresh players.
7 hours ago, Epic Failure said:
I mean, my position is that all of the top 10 deserve a spot. Because I'd expand the tournament to 20 teams, to mirror the 15 a side WC.
Give the first 12 spots to the top 12 in the rankings, then you open it to 8 regional qualifiers from there. I think there's easily enough competitive teams to do that.
Format would be hideous. Go for 16, or 24 like WC or old HK but stop trying to mirror the broken 15-a-side game. And this is definitely out of the question in the Olympics.
Okay, I'll adjust the GBR expected win rate against Uruguay to 98 out of 100 then.
This is no intended disrespect to Uruguay or Japan. Both are improving nations, in both 7s and the 15 a side game. But more than anything, it shows how lax both GBR and RSA have been in 7s in the last couple of years.
Japan is definitely going backwards in 7s. They recruit Simon Amor and give him mediocre players to build with. They'd have dominated this Challengers head and shoulders a few years back. Now they're even ousted before the QF.
8 hours ago, Epic Failure said:
But nobody else in Asia or South America is close to that level right now. Even in 7s, which is a more even sport than the 15 a side game.
Again I don't agree. HK should have won the Asian Qualifier but they're renown chokers. Chile could have beaten Uruguay too. Actually we'll see in Madrid how both these teams rank compared to the USA/Spain/Samoa/Canada.
It appears the seedings will be determined upon an aggregate score of both last season and this "regular" season (so until Singapore). Will it be a random draw ? In this scenario I hope the bracket will be determined thanks to the serpentine method. Current SVNS bracket is determined by your pool, with top seeds taking place in the three pools by order, the other teams being drawn randomly then. I guess they'll use the same system here, which is a bit unfair.
At the moment it would mean :
1st pot :
244
224
190
2nd pot :
180
128
122
3rd pot :
111
101
64
4th pot :
47
20
Final OQT qualifier
Like the men, France could snatch a first pot spot at the last moment. If France beat the USA tomorrow they'll kick them out of the QF and will need a QF win to seal the deal. Canada could still climb a pot but Fiji and Ireland seems set to get to the QF so this looks highly unlikely (Fiji losing their two last games and Canada winning the Cup).
It appears the seedings will be determined upon an aggregate score of both last season and this "regular" season (so until Singapore). Will it be a random draw ? In this scenario I hope the bracket will be determined thanks to the serpentine method. Current SVNS bracket is determined by your pool, with top seeds taking place in the three pools by order, the other teams being drawn randomly then. I guess they'll use the same system here, which is a bit unfair.
At the moment it would mean :
1st pot :
273
273
232
2nd pot :
225
202
200
3rd pot :
( 178)
159
142
( 137)
( 90)
4th pot :
54
( 52)
40
18
Not much to play. The only possible pot change is France overtaking Fiji to claim a top seeding. Should Fiji fail to reach the QF (quite likely at the moment), France would only need to win their QF to overtake them.
Other possibilities include Canada winning the final OQT, which would upgrade Uruguay to pot 3 (quite paradoxically), or a non-core team winning the OQT, with the same consequence.
It seems they will use the current series format (1A/2nd best 3rd, 2B/2C, 1C/2A, 1B/best 3rd) but I hope there will be no draw, only a serpentine assignment. If not this is completely flawed as only the first pot seeds are assigned a group, the rest being randomly drawn. This means you can be the 4th seed and still end up with the 1st, finish second in the group and have to face the group C winner (3rd seed) in QF.
The seeding is also to be determined. Using Madrid results could completely shake up the face of the tournament depending on how it goes (same for Challenger teams).
Anyway, should it be done now, with South Africa taking the last spot we would have :
I failed to wake up in the middle of the night, almost for the first time in 8 years. I've seen France lose to 35-0 and not a tournament win. Maybe I'm the problem
Argentina is proving again to be the best team in the series. Head and shoulders above the rest.
Fiji is still not finding the mojo, they will be strong in Paris no doubt but I feel they will struggle to make the threepeat.
For France Dupont will definitely be a X-factor. He already managed to play 14 minutes in the 6th game while being very impacteful both on defensive and offensive ends.
Difficult tournament for the European teams. Poland seem to struggle a little bit lately. Czech Republic managed to win against Kenya in pool stage but tumbled after that. Belgium, who won't be in Monaco, didn't look dominant and wasted a shot at the SF against Uganda, who overachieved a bit here I'd say.
Kenya didn't make it easy for China but the latter looked the better team overall, though their path to Paris is not written. Argentina is indeed climbing up, I highly fancy their chances in a few months time.
First Challenger last week in Dubaï. Less interesting than the women's competition regarding the Olympic qualification tournament, as the huge favorites will be South Africa or GB, but some notes worth keeping.
Apart from Mexico there is not much difference between all the teams, despite Kenya taking it in the end. Chile seems to have stepped up a bit, Germany still strong but still unable to wrap things up, as is HK.
I didn't think it through but the 24 (12x2) teams tournament makes it impossible having all the matches on one pitch in two days. So we may see more two pitches divide, in Cape Town this week, and then in Los Angeles.
Despite most of the tournaments being held on three days they still got rid of the "plate" semis. Five matches is now the norm if you don't reach the semis. A bit unfair as a best 3rd can finish in the top 4, in 7th or 8th, but not in 5th or 6th ...
Other change : the draw. Men's tournaments were drawn, but 12-teams women's were not and pools decided with a serpentine system. That's not the case anymore. This must also change the QF table, as with the old system (used in Dubaï) the order was (1A/2nd best 3rd - 2B/2C - 1B/best 3rd - 1C/2A). Now it should be best 1st/2nd best 3rd, 2nd best 1st/best 3rd ...
Unlike the women's qualifications several World Series teams are not in yet, and two at least will be left out. A bit karmic to see the three relegated from last season (Japan, Kenya and Uruguay) get a spot when their executioners (Canada and Spain) don't.
Invert Samoa and PNG and we're kinda good. As I said, most of the participating teams will battle each other out in the Challengers, thus creating a coherent draw. Not that it matters in a winner-takes-it-all tournament but that's more fair anyway.
I'd say Samoa are strong favourites BUT I wouldn't under-estimate the Kenyans or Argentinians. Anyone else would be a bit of a shock, but shocks do happen and this looks, like the Challenger series, like a cracking competition. Like Field Hockey, final Olympic Qualifiers can provide a hell of a spectacle in themselves (last time in field hockey when Canada and Ireland split the last chance saloon finals, ties were extraordinarily tense - other team sports take note!)
I feel you've mistaken this thread for the men's, else I can't see how you would make these calls in all seriousness
11 of the 12 World Series team have qualified. Spain the odd one out even failed to get to the repêchage.
Interesting tournament since it will quite simply be a Challenger Series additional edition (with Samoa and Jamaica instead of Thailand and Belgium), so how each team compares to the others will be known beforehand.
Don't really understand strategy, with renewed squad every time they can field a strong team. Lots of injuries here so there go their chances of back to back Olympics.
was probably the favorite coming in, even more so now, if they manage to escape big brother's trap.
Interesting. If this works France could be gold medal favourites
France was a decent outsider (if Fiji were not Fiji) beforehand. The team is building up nicely and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win a stage this season.
I don't really buy the "put 15-a-side players in the mix with light preparation", more harmful than anything. And Penaud despite his qualities is too much of a liability defensively, can work with 14 partners, not with 6.
defeated 24-21, that places them on the path to finish first in the group.
Well well well, I probably underestimated PNG, maybe overestimated Tonga too, which would mean Samoa is probably head and shoulders above the rest. But we'll see.
is the big favourite, but so was South Africa in the African qualifier. Imagine if Samoa loses to , you'd have five core teams ( ) all fighting for one spot at the Olympics.
in total decay. They lost to a team in even worse shape. Good for as their relegation could have been a final blow to the project (even though they're not close to achieving anything in 15-a-side).
Now the final tournament could be really interesting. Not that had a free bye before, but this ensure one high-profile core team will miss out. and are in there too so we knew at least two of the twelve SVNS shit were to fail.
Harder an harder to look past Ireland - though Germany gave them a run out too - I've ALWAYS thought if the Germans ever really woke up to Rugby, you'd be staring at a super power within a decade or two, the gam,e would just absolutely suit them (same for Russians, as it happens)
Much better looking on disstaff side, and some unlikely team or teams are going to see the final qualifier.
Well this looked like a swan song from Germany 7s. They were close to getting to the WS a couple times but now they've gone backwards.
and 
is actually 2-2 with one large victory for each and two disputed games going both ways.
2 - 1 
244
224
190
180
128
122
111
64
47
273
159
90)
40
35-0 and not a tournament win. Maybe I'm the problem 
strategy, with renewed squad every time they can field a strong team. Lots of injuries here so there go their chances of back to back Olympics.
)
Posted
The surprising part was that Kenya was probably in a en even worse form going in. They're starting to rebuild with fresh players.
Format would be hideous. Go for 16, or 24 like WC or old HK but stop trying to mirror the broken 15-a-side game. And this is definitely out of the question in the Olympics.
Link to post
Share on other sites