So 2 years to go. All qualification documents are basically confirmed, so
Let´s try that game and see in July 2024 how much wrong I was
Archery: Hopefully we will qualify again a female to the W Individual Recurve (one of Denisa Barániková/Alexandra Longová) I do believe it is in our strength to earn that individual quota - 1
Artistic Swimming: Maybe if all planets align there would be a slim chance for an upset and qualifying a duet, but right now I give it a very small chance to happen... - 0
Athletics: The current WCh in USA are extremely worrying, We send only 5 athletes (only 1 track & field and 4 race walking rookies/juniors) after the retirement of our best athlete since the independence Matej Tóth, there basically anyone behind to took the relay, However there still a couple of athletes who had to decline the Worlds because of injury and should be able to qualify for Paris (some more or less easily, other with a lot of luck throught the rankings), so let´s goal all in and predict - Volko (100 & 200), one of the guys in 400, Veszelka (Triple Jump), Lomnický (Hammer), 1 or 2 guys in Race Walk among boys and our rising young star Viki Forster (in atleast one of her 100, 200 or 100H), Emma Zapletalová (400H + maybe also Ledecká via ranking), Škvarková (100H), Hrašnová to end her career at the Olympics in Hammer Throw and Czaková (who just returned to training from maternity leave and want qualify to Paris in W Race Walk) so a VERY optimistic prediction if everything will work suddenly for us - 10
Badminton: Martina Repiská was in Tokyo and even won a match as the first ever slovak in this sport under the five rings, not sure if she will be able to repeat it, Obviously I hope so, but I do not think she will qualify this time - 0
Basketball: Our Women team sadly is not as strong anymore to be able to fight for the few european tickets,
The Men team can qualify for the Olympics only when IOC and FIBA will organize a 206 nations Olympic Tournament - 0
Beach Volleyball: After the disappointement of the postponing Tokyo in 2020 our best pair Dubovcová/Nestracová decided to split and did not return back since then - 0
Boxing: Andrej "Bandi" Csemez in the 75 or 81 and Viliam Tankó in the flyweight are likely our only chances to qualify, Bandi was in Tokyo where Slovakia returned to Olympics Boxing after 25 years, would be awesome if we can start a new streak by qualifying again, hopefully at least 1 of them will do it, if both of them, would be fantastic - 1
Breaking: Hilarious - 0
Canoeing - Slalom: Full team or riots - 6
Canoeing - Sprint: The Male K4-500 squad once the 5 guys will stop to act and fights between themselves like in a kindergarten for the places in a boat should qualify without much troubles, Hopefully we will also have a female representative this time (Lisa Maria Gamsjäger and maybe even a female K2 is not so unrealistic) Not many chances sadly in the C events, I go with 7 (five in M K and 2 in W K) - 7
Cycling - BMX: Under or very close to 0 % chance to qualify here - 0
Cycling - Mountain Bike: Another huge disappointement in Tokyo, our athlete lost the quota in the very last race (Damn you Dascalu !), Hopefully this time we will be more lucky, but as I know ourselves it will be at the end just a big - Zero
Cycling - Road: No idea, Maybe Peter Sagan will have one final dance in Paris road race if he will hang around for another 2 years, but even if he will, I do not see how we will qualify more than 1 place here - 1
Cycling - Track: Pavlendová is still here but she will need something like a miracle to fullfil her dream to be at the Olympics at least once in her career. The rest is too weak, so Probably - 0
Diving: We have one American girl from Seattle with slovak origins who tried at the European champs in 2019 but finished dead last. She is actually our sole registered athlete in this sport btw... but, I have not heard any news about her since there - 0
Equestrian: Bugan with a lot of luck and declined quotas can earn a unbelievable quota in dressage, but will require a lot of luck and hopefully a better work with eventual horse country change documents - 0
Fencing: There a higher chance I will be the new pope than to see a slovak fencer at the Olympics in this century - 0
Field Hockey: I can already picture all the trash in medias from slovak casual fans that the reigning bronze medalists from Beijing are not qualified until they will realize the existence of this summer version of the sport - 0
Football: Only 4 spots for M, that would need more than a christmas miracle to qualify, even if our U21 is still in the play-offs for the Euro, so hope dies last - 0
Golf: The "boy from Bratislava" Rory Sabattini already announced his desire to qualify for Paris and end his career there with maybe another shocking medal, he should qualify I believe, but surely he´ll not medal again, let be realistic, such things if happens, then only once in a life - 1
Gymnastics - Artistic: Barbora Mokošová again our only hope to qualify, Hopefully she will manage to reach it, anyway it is far from being a sure thing - 1
Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Not in this millenium - 0
Gymnastics - Trampoline: Actually we have no registered competitors in this - 0
Handball: No chance for W even smaller for M - 0
Judo: The dream is still alive to have a Judoka at the Olympics, did not happen since the 1st round elimination of Matej Randl in London -90kg. We will surely try and maybe with a dose of luck someone will make it, but realistically, we will have to wait again another 4 years - 0
Modern Pentathlon: I heard somewhere we have two athletes in this, but they are Too weak to even consider play for the qualification - 0
Rowing: Our federation disbanded the entire national team last year because of very poor results, including the juniors, so no one - 0
Rugby Sevens: I have a feeling that even our basketball team is better, so to say - 0
Sailing: we have no sea - 0
Shooting: Hopefully 5 at least, Zuzana Rehák Štefečeková to defend her W Trap title, maybe also another girl will join her, Erik Varga with a last appearance in M Trap, maybe another guy to join him, Danka Barteková our IOC member in W Skeet, Juraj Tužinský should also qualify in M Air Pistol and finally
Patrik Jány the new rising star of the M Rifle events will be probably one of our major medal chances in Paris, Hopefully. So anthing from 5 to 7, 8 would be good, less than 5 a disaster - 7
Skateboarding: Richard Tury will at his late 30s as a real grandpa in this sport make another last try to qualify for the M Street, he ended very unlucky being the first non-qualified for Tokyo - 0
Sport Climbing: A couple of youngsters trying here and there but without real chances. Will never understand it btw, coming from a 80% mountainous country it is just amazing that we do not have at least one decent lever climber - 0
Surfing: The only Olympic sport we do not have even a registered federation - 0
Swimming: I assume none of our swimmers is capable to achive the required qualifying marks, so it will be just the mandatory 2 universality places, most likely for one of Richard Nagy/Tomáš Klobučník or Adam Halas among men and one of Nikoleta Trníková/Andrea Podmaníková or Karolína Hájková among women - 2
Table Tennis: I do believe we will again qualify 3 and again the same athletes (Wang Yang MS, Ľubomír Pištej and Barbora Balážová WS and XD), at least they should do - 3
Taekwondo: No chances, we have a couple of promising juniors, but still too weak at international level - 0
Tennis: Always a lottery but if we will get rid of Zika, Covid, high taxes, big traffic on the roads and all similar insurmountable obstacles for a top tennis player we should have a couple of players on the Rolland Garros courts, Alex Molčan as a clay specialist may be our distant chance, maybe another gentlemen will join him (Gombos or Martin) and who knows where will be our Doubles specialist Polášek in 2 years, hopefully also at least one of our female players, Kužmová, Kučová or Schmiedlová will be there as well - 4
Triathlon: After the scandalous Tokyo qualifications, I surely hope this time WT will handle the system better, Richard Varga hopefully will qualify for another games and among women we do have one serious youth talent Margareta Vráblová, maybe Paris will be too early for her, but you seriously should keep an eye on this girl, we may hear a lot about her in the future - 2
Volleyball: Both our teams are in the better middle sides of European Volleyball ranks but sadly it is still too far from the Olympic qualifying level - 0
Water Polo: Both our teams will surely fight, we may even reach the final qualifiers, but we will lose and stay at home.
The heart and will is definitely here, but the pool depth is just too small. What is enough for a 12th-16th place at M European Champs is sadly not enough at all for a 12 team Olympics tournament. Same apply more or less for Women, the general difference is too big among the Olympic 5-7 European contenders and the rest of contenders including Slovakia. - 0
Weightlifting: Would require a lot of luck and favorable things to qualify someone, but I doubt it. Maybe Nikola Seničová with a slim chance - 0
Wrestling: who would have thought that wrestling could be our strongest sport at the Olympics.
Our wrestling federation started silently a bit of an ambitious project a couple of years ago to qualify 3-4 athletes to Paris 2024 and win there 1 medal !
What sounded like a hilarious and impossible dream is now not so absurd anymore.
Tajmuraz Salkazanov should if there a justice in this world experience his olympic debut in Paris and ..oh ! god know, that he is not without a chance to make something absolutely interesting there at all. Akhsarbek Gulaev, Boris Makoev and the newest addition to the contingent Batyrbek Tsakulov can also fight for the qualifiaction, among women we also have another prospect, this time, a Hungarian naturalized wrestler Zsuzsanna Molnár who can also with a bit of luck wrestle on the Paris mat - 3
Total Sports: 14
Optimistic Total Athletes: Above 50
Realistic Total Athletes: anything between 40-50 is basically realistic, In my predictions I counted 49 which would be great, however ending 1 short of 50 would be also a bit frustrating I guess
Pessimistic Total Athletes: Under 40