Okay, semi-final 1 is done with their first rehearsals, so i'll give my thoughts from the short clips.
100% qualifying - Russia, Armenia, definately first and second in this semi-final. Iceland and Malta are also going through, though Ira could go down a few notches from pre-rehearsals, but she will have no problem qualifying.
Big improvements that put countries in contention - Greece, Netherlands and Czech Republic. Greece has a bad song, but their staging is a vast improvement and they are surrounded by duds, so with them being very popular country i think they will squeak in, which i didn't think before. Netherlands and CR have a simple, but classy staging and with the good singing performance it will make an impression surrounded with all the visual stuff from others. I think juries will rank them pretty high.
Countries that lose positions - Croatia and Azerbaijan. Croatia was a front-runner in the beginning of the campaign, but Ninas weird space video first and now that weird asian dress and very bland staging has it losing positions fast. It can qualify, but i won't be surprised if it is this years big flop from pre-season favouritism. As for Azerbaijan, just Samra looking amazingly beautiful () won't cut it, she needs to sing properly too. I read that she has the flu, but that rehearsal was dead awful. Could we see Azerbaijan not qualifying for the first time?
Countries with no change - Hungary, Cyprus, Estonia. I was very optimistic that these three would qualify, but now i'm not so sure that all three will make it. Nothing drastical happened, but they didn't struck me that much.
100 not qualifying - San Marino, Montenegro, Moldova (though i liked the nice routine they have, but that won't be enough), Finnland, Bosnia and Austria.
If i had to pick the 10 finalists - Russia, Armenia, Iceland, Malta, Hungary, Cyprus, Greece, Croatia, Czech Rep. and Netherlands. I'm reserving to make changes after the second rehearsals.