OlympicsFan

Do you even follow swimming? Please look up the results of the last world championships. When did Italy last go faster than the Chinese time from this year? China, South Korea and Australia should normally fight for bronze. Don’t see how Italy is relevant in this discussion.

Yeah, but Australia should be at least 0.6 seconds faster on the freestyle leg.

I still don’t see China seriously threatening the U.S. or Australia. China should be about 1.5 seconds behind after the first leg and all the waves will make it very difficult to catch up. I think China is a rather clear favorite for bronze, but probably not more than that. I actually think that China could medal in all 7 relays. The men’s 800 free relay should be the closest call, followed by the men’s 400 free relay. There is a chance that only 4 different nations will win relay medals. Especially the women’s relays look super „shallow“, only the U.S., Australia, China and maybe Canada look like realistic medal contenders. No European nation has a realistic medal chance.

I don’t think that the record on the women’s side is a supersuited one (if that is what you meant). Almost all records are in danger. Only men’s 200/800 free, men’s 100 breast, men’s 200 back, women’s 200 fly and possibly men’s 200 fly seem safe.

1) It clashes with the 200 free at the Olympics. 2) She already put down a time. Don’t see anyone who could realistically get close. 3) Don’t see how it would make sense to put McKeown on the breast leg. You would probably lose one second on the back and free leg (combined). McKeown would have to be 1.5 seconds faster than your second best breastroker to justify putting her there. Even if Strauch doesn’t improve till trials, McKeown would have to be 1:05 mid, which doesn’t seem realistic. In addition to that it wouldn’t help your athletes to swim against the American wave (considering that Smith most likely would open up a considerable gap for the U.S.).

Same as in basketball and football.

Not sure I would call the UK highly developed … More likely politicians like to use sports to masquerade all the other (real) problems (NHS, education system, housing problem, stagnating wages).

Obviously that is nonsense. Everyone at the top dopes (at least in somewhat relevant sports), Eastern Europeans just doped more ruthlessly. Whenever there is money involved, there is cheating. Makes no sense to assume that someone who isn’t doping can win gold, when the huge majority of people live in countries where doping pays off most of the time. Why should someone in Africa/Russia/China/India not dope, when they can become „rich“ by doing it and don’t really face much consequences even if they get caught? In order to outperform the most talented, doped athletes from those nations, you have to dope as well. There is nothing to suggest that people from rich nations are genetically superior and therefore don’t have to dope to beat the doped athletes from all those other nations (that represent at least 80 % of the global population/talent pool). Anyone who disagrees has to defend one of the following two lines of reasoning and in my opinion both don’t really make sense: a) People in rich nations are somehow special and therefore don’t have to dope to dominate the most talented, doped up athletes from the rest of the world (that makes up at least 80 % of the talent pool) b) There is no widespread doping in poorer nations (despite the evidence from countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Russia or China saying otherwise)

Did she say that she will swim it at trials? Absolutely don’t see her swimming it at the Olympics.

1) What starting date did you use? Do you only look at 2024 results or all results since the beginning of the qualifying period? 2) Many nations haven’t had their trials yet, so we will probably see some changes. I would be shocked if Australia would have less athletes with the A standard than Japan.

It is the same when you look at the results of the International Mathematical Olympiad. Based on the names you wouldn’t be able to tell whether a team is from the U.S., Canada or China.

Don’t see how Hungary wouldn’t be huge underdogs against Sweden. Croatia, Spain and Germany should also be clearly favored over them. Early predictions for quarterfinals: Sweden - Egypt Croatia - Norway Spain - Denmark Germany - France

I said that Australia and the U.S. are a lock for gold and silver (not in that order). USA is the favorite for gold. 1) Australia is clearly faster than Canada (combined almost 2 seconds) on backstroke and freestyle, about equal on butterfly and at most a second behind on breaststroke. 2) Please look up the Chinese breaststroke leg … China is about equal on butterfly, clearly faster on breaststroke, about equal on freestyle and maybe (half) a second slower on backstroke. Right now there is absolutely no basis to say that the breaststroke leg is close. At the moment it looks like a coin toss. Canada is definitely much closer to China than to Australia.

How does that make it any better? Why not throw from the top of the Himalaya or in a wind canal?

Realistically you have to subtract 5 or 6 meters. He is still one of the favorites for the Olympics, but nothing more.