TeamGB

We have elections in the UK, this Thursday, so if you are a politics nut like me, I thought I would give a little rundown of what to look out for.

Blackpool South By-Election

Called after the conservative MP was caught being bribed, the seat will most likely be taken by labour. The reform result will be interesting (if it is high that is bad news for the Tories, as vote splitting of the right could hand a lot of seats of Labour at the general election.

Local council elections

These elections are only in England, and in 107/153 total councils, with the majority electing just 1/3 of the councillors. These elections were last held in 2021 when the conservatives were having a "vaccine boost", so we could see some large swings in some areas.

Although local issues play a part, the general voting trends will likely show how each party is performing. Keep an eye out for the projected national share of votes, which shows how the country would have voted if this was a general election.

The conservatives and labour are both defending around 900 seats each, with the Liberal democrats on 405 and Greens on 118. The conservatives are expected to lose around 400 and all the other parties to make gains. In terms of actual councils Labour are defending 45, the Conservatives 18 and the Lib Dems 10.

The councils to keep an eye on are

- Adur (CON loss)

- Bolton (LAB gain)

- Brentwood (LDM gain)

- Bristol (GREEN gain)

- Cannock Chase (LAB gain)

- Dorset (CON loss / LDM gain)

- Dudley (CON loss)

- Gloucester (CON loss)

- Hartlepool (LAB gain)

- Hyndburn (LAB gain)

- Milton Keynes (CON loss)

- Portsmouth (LDM gain)

- Redditch (CON loss)

- Rushmore (CON loss)

- Solihull (CON loss)

- Tunbridge Wells (LDM gain)

- Wokingham (LDM gain)

London Assembly election

Labour will look to take control of the London Assembly, they need to gain 2 seats to have a majority, but it is certainly not a formality.

Mayors

11 regional mayors will be elected with labour defending 6, conservatives 2 and 3 being new positions. Realistically labour could sweep all 11 but Tees Valley will be on a knife edge (47% each on Opinion polls)

Police and Crime Commissioners

The conservatives are defending 30 seats, labour 8 and Plaid Cymru 1. These elections will now be first past the post compared to supplementary vote which could mean the anti tory vote is split. You would expect labour gains but the scale is quite unknown

Overall these elections are a litmus test for the parties, but I wouldn't expect many political shockwaves from them, and the bigger vote will likely be held later in the year.

20 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

The selection criteria appears to out the Mixed relay above Men’s relay and individuals. So MHS might be told to focus on the mixed relay and downgrade his hopes for the individual.

Yeah thats not happening.

Just seen someone comment on Swimswam that it is possible for the European men to sweep the golds in Paris.

Obviously on face value this looks ridiculous but the more I think about it it doesn't seem completely far fetched. 

1. M - 400m IM

2. M - 4x200m Free

3. W - Triathlon

4. W - Madison

5. W - BMX Race.

328. M - Breaking

329. W - Breaking

17 minutes ago, phelps said:

yes, in the final there will be only 4 sailors (and with unbalanced chances to win it all)

So we will know some quotas soon.

19 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Assuming it's the same structure as last year's worlds, then the top 2 sailors at the end of the opening series of 20 races will go directly through to the final.

 

Sailors ranked 3-10 progress to the semi-finals with the top ranked sailor in each semi-final starting with 2 wins, the 2nd ranked sailor starting with 1 win. The other 2 sailors start from 0. The first sailor to get to 3 wins advances to the final so it is unlikely that they would need all 8 races. 

 

In the final, the same structure applies - the sailor who topped the opening series starts the final with 2 wins, the sailor who finished 2nd has 1 win and the qualifiers from the semi-final start with 0. The first to 3 takes gold.  

So how many are in the final in total? 4?

Has anyone watched the swimming doping documentary, its on the ARD website but it's geoblocked and in German.

30 minutes ago, phelps said:

it's also the "Marchand effect"

when you know that you start 7/8 secs behind the eventual winner, you immediately try another option

most races of this kind tend to decrease the average 1st tier participants (and would have more 2nd/3rd tier swimmers, if only the OQT wasn't that insane)

I guess, but behind Marchand the depth is weak and really any of the qualifiers could medal, whereas in the 400m free is insanely strong and there are relatively few athletes who could medal.

3 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

 

Clearly what he is trying to say is that they should never compete again.

4 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

I wonder if GB will withdraw if Dhina is not banned. James Guy is clearly considering it. 

No he’s not, all he did was post about the 400m free from 2015 and how Sun shouls have lost his medals. Considering your track record of swimming predictions I’m going to politely ignore your opinion.

2 minutes ago, dullard said:

They handled this like amateurs. Not doing even the most basic verification.

This whole situation is a bit of a mess, and I think all sides need to come forward and explain what has happened so a proper investigation can take place.

6 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

Hmmm.

 

There's no doubt that there are going to be issues in China, It's too big, and the state is too authoritarian not to suspect, but they seem to have a strange attitude - once they get called/warned/suspected on it, they seem to back off in a way that Russia, to put it gently, do not. For that reason I sometimes think these sort of stories are like a 'shot across the bows', warning China to knock it back if it is felt they are ramping up the dodgy - the mind goes back to Ma's army, Sun Yang (who, despite the warnings, f***ed around and found out), Ye Shewin etc.

 

For the past 12 months, Chinese swimmers have been absolutely pulling up trees in the pool. One entirely hopes its on the up and up, but this does seem, possibly, like a pre-Paris warning, right around trials.

 

Time, I suppose will tell.

The think that frustrates me the most is that is has been swept under the rug for so long. I'm sure that many of the Chinese swimmers are clean, and the progression shown by Chinese swimming/swimmers is not improbable, but now that this has happened the perception of many swimmers may have been tarnished (unfairly or not). 

The fact that it took 3 years for this information to come out indicates some dodgy business going on, and the consequences could be dire and should hopefully stir some debate into large scale doping in sport, where I feel the focus has been on Russia for too long.

19 minutes ago, phelps said:

Chinese Trials, Day #1

 

women's 100m Fly

1.Zhang Yufei, 56.47
2.Wang Yichun, 57.55

men's 400m Freestyle

1.Pan Zhanle, 3.45.58
2.Zhang Zhanshuo, 3.45.82
3.Fei Liwei, 3.45.96

women's 400m Freestyle

1.Li Bingjie, 4.04.03
2.Liu Yaxin, 4.04.88

men's 100m Breastroke Semifinals

Dong Zhihao, 59.61 (1st Semi)
Qin Haiyang, 58.62 (2nd Semi)
Sun Jiajun, 59.14 (2nd Semi)

Relay Times

women's 4*100m Freestyle

Cheng Yujie, 53.97 (1st leg)
Yang Junxuan, 53.55 (internal leg)
Wu Qingfeng, 52.71 (internal leg)
Li Bingjie, 53.56 (internal leg)

men's 4*100m Freestyle

Chen Jun'er, 48.13 (1st leg)
Pan Zhanle, 47.57 (internal leg)
Liu Wudi, 48.53 (1st leg)

 

 

Hope I got it right with google translate... 

 

@Vic Liu feel free to make me notice any possible mistake

Thanks, I have been struggling to find the results for this. 

When you say "internal leg" on the relays, is that a time from this meet or has some takeover time been taken off.

4 minutes ago, phelps said:

men's 50m 3-Position Rifle

 

the 8 finalists:

 

Jiri Privratsky (already qualified to the OG)
Konstantin Malinovskiy (already qualified to the OG)
Ole Martin Halvorsen
Ivan Roe (already qualified to the OG)
Aleksi Leppa (already qualified to the OG)
Petr Nymbursky (already qualified to the OG)
Michael Bargeron
Jan Lochbihler

 

Am I reading this right - 2/3 chance of a qualifier 

3 minutes ago, Fly_like_a_don said:

https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast-100-days/

 

Gracenote releases medal projection 100 days to go!

 

 

If GB win only 13 Golds I will be shocked, and honestly same with Australia, I could see them near that target in just Swimming.

5 minutes ago, RussB said:

No Jacob Peters - massive hit to the medley relays. 😢 they clearly are prioritising the men’s free relays above the medley relays with macmillan and whittle both getting rather fortuitous picks in my view. I thought we had a genuine medal chance in the men’s medley relay and possibly the mixed too but GB Aquatics clearly don’t share the same optimism.

James Guy can swim if he proves form

After an extremely disappointing Tokyo, British rowing have really turned this around and I would say that they are the governing body with the biggest improvement from Tokyo. For me the most important thing is having depth and I think the 4 showed that extremely well. 

22 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

It happened with Belgium at a previous games.

 

A formalization of the rules is really needed.

As much as I am a fan of world taekwondo for creating a interesting sport with clear rules and easy to follow for the viewer, I have to say that their qualification system is one of the worst.

Personally I don’t think there should be a limit on the number of athletes who can qualify for a team. Imagine being the 6th ranked fighter in the world and not qualifying because there are 2 other athletes in different weight classes are higher ranked for you.

And this one is a gripe which can be applied to other sports as well. The Individual neutral Athletes are baisically a team, no matter how hard people try to spin it in neutrality. They even have their own flag, so surely these limits on athletes participation should apply to them, but they don’t.

And on a side note their website is appalling.

13 minutes ago, orangeman said:

Anyone know where to watch this morning session? CBC isn't broadcasting it. 

Normally the morning sessions aren't livestreamed anywhere, even at the world championships.

I think para-cycling and cycling could definitely work as all the events at the Paralympics are time trial format, so integrated classes could compete on a points system. The issue is that a selection meet wouldn't really work for cycling as most events are team ones and the likelihood of a random rider knocking down an olympic champion is much higher, which would kind of be like british cycling. shooting itself in the foot. 

Overall I have really enjoyed this meet, and I have enjoyed the integration of the para and able bodied swimmers. 

The para swimmers have put on a great show with some truly world class times. 

As a summary, I thought I'd go through the para swimming prospects for Paris, and give the times which would have won medals at last years worlds.

Men's 100m Freestyle S12 - Silver

Men's 200m Freestyle S14 - Gold

Men's 400m Freestyle S6 - Bronze

Men's 100m Backstroke S12 - Gold

Men's 100m Backstroke S14 - Bronze

Men's 100m Butterfly S12 - Gold

Men's 100m Butterfly S14 - Silver

Men's 200m IM S6 - Bronze

Men's 200m IM S14 - Bronze

Women's 50m Freestyle S8 - Silver

Women's 100m Freestyle S5 - Gold

Women's 200m Freestyle S5 - Gold

Women's 200m Freestyle S14 - Gold, Silver + Bronze

Women's 400m Freestyle S8 - Gold

Women's 400m Freestyle S10 - Bronze

Women's 50m Backstroke S3 - Gold

Women's 50m Backstroke S5 - Silver

Women's 100m Backstroke S8 - Gold

Women's 100m Backstroke S14 - Gold, Silver + Bronze

Women's 100m Butterfly S8 - Bronze

Women's 100m Butterfly S10 - Gold + Bronze

Women's 100m Butterfly S14 - Gold + Silver

Women's 100m Breaststroke S5 - Silver

Women's 100m Breaststroke S6 - Gold

Women's 100m Breaststroke S7 - Gold

Women's 100m Breaststroke S8 - Gold

Women's 100m Breaststroke S13 - Silver

Women's 100m Breaststroke S14 - Bronze

Women's 200m IM S6 - Gold

Women's 200m IM S8 - Gold

Women's 200m IM S14 - Gold + Bronze

Mixed 4x100m Freestyle S14 - Gold

Overall, that results in 19 Golds, 9 Silvers and 11 Bronzes. For comparison, we got 8 Golds, 9 Silvers and 9 Bronzes in Tokyo

28 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

Apparently they going to strict and not do that so it raises standards for LA. 

Is this from the same source that said we are not sending a team to the European Athletics champs.

Why would they not send the relay when 3/4 athletes are already selected and I have no doubt that Angharad gets the time tonight.

44 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

It just seems perverse to have someone so close to selection miss out after having a good champs while someone has a bad champs and goes anyway. Arguably rewards faluire. 

I agree with the first part, although it doesn't reward failure, as you could just as easily argue that Bird failed by not getting the nomination time. In the end, Aquatics GB will focus on what brings in the funding, which is medals, and if that means bending their own rules then I am sure they will be prepared to do that.

8 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

I don’t think Peters is being taken unless Guy does not qualify in the top 4 of 200m.  I think they want to reduce controversy by leaving out someone seem as a favourite of the selectors who has done poor so it doesn’t look like the discretion rule just lets the underperformers all in anyway. 

Well this aim of the selection policy is to "optimise medal outcomes.", so athletes like Kieran Bird would likely understand why they were not picked as they really have no chance of medalling or providing cover for a medal contending relay. Personally I think that the 100 fly leg on the relay shouldn't necessarily be given to an athlete at trials in April, as form can change dramatically since then. I think they take all 3, and I think the 30 selection limit still allows this, and then allows the most in form to swim on the relays, in order to maximise the "medal outcome".

4 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

So if that was the final team, who would be the 4x100 relay? Hopkin/Hope/Wood/Anderson? There's not a lot of relay cover there for the women. 

Medi could cover, and Freya Colbert is also entered into to 100m free. 

Although you are right, depending on how Eva Okaro swims in the 100m she could definately take Laurens spot on the team.

The point of this is to show that there is still room on the team to get both James Guy and Jacob Peters on the train despite performing poorly tonight.