The predictions often take golds like Bol, Van der Poel, Madison, Steenbergen with a pretty high chance, while out of these for I give Bol maybe 5% chance, vd Poel maybe 10% and the other two 1% at best. Hassan is the only one that has a high chance of producing a gold often not reflected in predictions.
Golds that are certain I would only give to Florijn and Lavrijsen. I'd say it is highly likely we will also take gold from hockey, women's cycling road race, at least one sailing event and at least 2 more rowing events, team sprint and even though form is uncertain, I will put Sifan in here as well.
Then we do have at least 10 events were gold is a realistic possibility, from anywhere from 10-50%. These include stuff like men's cycling, women's XCO on the low end and more rowing golds, M keirin and Van Rouwendaal on the high end.
All in all, I'd say 12-15 golds is pretty realistic. And that would still be really good for us.