evil betty

Broke down some numbers for the final day of woman's qualification.
Monobob is done, except... For two quotas have their second best racing in the WC tomorrow.  If Blizzard cracks the to 12 (and there are only 17 entries) then it is possible for her to catch  Andreutti. Andreutti is racing in the EC and needs a top 11 I believe to improve her score.
 
In the two women race for 3 quotas it is very close between  Blatty and  Ribi. If Blatty gets a top ten it gets really interesting. If not it is done.
 
For the final quota(s) it looks pretty much done,  Van Petegem needs a top two finish in the WC to catch up, likewise  Moore needs a similar finish in the EC. No chance. If Moore had raced in the WC it might have got interesting.

So qualification isn't done, and the last few spots are very close with essentially one more race to go.
 
On the 6th and 7th Canada entered 6 racers in the lower tier North American cup races in Lake Placid. On the 11th there was races again in Lake Placid, Canada only entered 2 (articles say withdrew 4, start list on the 10th says 2 registered, whatever). 
If the total amount entered was above 20 then the ranking points for first start at 120 and go down incrementally, with only 2 Canadians entered there were 19 competitors so points for first only start at 90. 
 
The USA only has a shot at qualifying 2 sleds at this point, and Uhlaender appears to have had a shot at catching up to 2nd best among the americans. She came 1st, those 30 points really cost her if that is how the USA nominates their team.
 
The best 17 countries get one sled, based on how their top competitor is ranked.  is in 13th with 498 points,  is in 14th with 480,  15th 475,  16th 468,  17th 457,  18th 456 and no one else has the ability to gain enough points.  could have received 27 more points,  19 more,  21 more. So a big deal for them, and not appearing in the stories.
 
The accusation is that Canada did it for their own gain, to protect Channell's chance of qualifying: the 6 countries with the highest ranked 2nd best slider get a 2nd quota.  Channell holds the last spot at 512,  Erlacher is next at 484. Both only race at the World Cup level. However, the next best after that is  Simmchen at 391, who did race in Lake Placid and misses out on 25 points. Both her and her teammate would have to pass both Channell and Erlacher in the rankings for them to achieve a 2nd quota. A miraculous outcome, but that is what Uhlaender is accusing the Canadians of being afraid of. Could be, I don't think so but who knows.
 

So qualification isn't done, and the last few spots are very close with essentially one more race to go.
 
On the 6th and 7th Canada entered 6 racers in the lower tier North American cup races in Lake Placid. On the 11th there was races again in Lake Placid, Canada only entered 2 (articles say withdrew 4, start list on the 10th says 2 registered, whatever). 
If the total amount entered was above 20 then the ranking points for first start at 120 and go down incrementally, with only 2 Canadians entered there were 19 competitors so points for first only start at 90. 
 
The USA only has a shot at qualifying 2 sleds at this point, and Uhlaender appears to have had a shot at catching up to 2nd best among the americans. She came 1st, those 30 points really cost her if that is how the USA nominates their team.
 
The best 17 countries get one sled, based on how their top competitor is ranked.  is in 13th with 498 points,  is in 14th with 480,  15th 475,  16th 468,  17th 457,  18th 456 and no one else has the ability to gain enough points.  could have received 27 more points,  19 more,  21 more. So a big deal for them, and not appearing in the stories.
 
The accusation is that Canada did it for their own gain, to protect Channell's chance of qualifying: the 6 countries with the highest ranked 2nd best slider get a 2nd quota.  Channell holds the last spot at 512,  Erlacher is next at 484. Both only race at the World Cup level. However, the next best after that is  Simmchen at 391, who did race in Lake Placid and misses out on 25 points. Both her and her teammate would have to pass both Channell and Erlacher in the rankings for them to achieve a 2nd quota. A miraculous outcome, but that is what Uhlaender is accusing the Canadians of being afraid of. Could be, I don't think so but who knows.
 

So qualification isn't done, and the last few spots are very close with essentially one more race to go.
 
On the 6th and 7th Canada entered 6 racers in the lower tier North American cup races in Lake Placid. On the 11th there was races again in Lake Placid, Canada only entered 2 (articles say withdrew 4, start list on the 10th says 2 registered, whatever). 
If the total amount entered was above 20 then the ranking points for first start at 120 and go down incrementally, with only 2 Canadians entered there were 19 competitors so points for first only start at 90. 
 
The USA only has a shot at qualifying 2 sleds at this point, and Uhlaender appears to have had a shot at catching up to 2nd best among the americans. She came 1st, those 30 points really cost her if that is how the USA nominates their team.
 
The best 17 countries get one sled, based on how their top competitor is ranked.  is in 13th with 498 points,  is in 14th with 480,  15th 475,  16th 468,  17th 457,  18th 456 and no one else has the ability to gain enough points.  could have received 27 more points,  19 more,  21 more. So a big deal for them, and not appearing in the stories.
 
The accusation is that Canada did it for their own gain, to protect Channell's chance of qualifying: the 6 countries with the highest ranked 2nd best slider get a 2nd quota.  Channell holds the last spot at 512,  Erlacher is next at 484. Both only race at the World Cup level. However, the next best after that is  Simmchen at 391, who did race in Lake Placid and misses out on 25 points. Both her and her teammate would have to pass both Channell and Erlacher in the rankings for them to achieve a 2nd quota. A miraculous outcome, but that is what Uhlaender is accusing the Canadians of being afraid of. Could be, I don't think so but who knows.
 

I saw that, really bizarre. I can't find anywhere in their qualifying document a rule for what they did. 

Less racers reduced the ranking points of 1st place by 30 points. Canada's 2nd best sled is 120 points ahead of a Latvian sled. No one in the NA cup race has any relevance at all to Canada. Only the Austrain Erlacher matters to them. The racers that could lose out, benefitted greatly by Canada entering many racers in two previous races. All of which are only competing to get one sled to the Olympics. Uhlaender may have been affected personally in her chances to go the Olympics, not sure what the American criteria is naming their team.

Less racers reduced the ranking points of 1st place by 30 points. Canada's 2nd best sled is 120 points ahead of a Latvian sled. No one in the NA cup race has any relevance at all to Canada. Only the Austrain Erlacher matters to them. The racers that could lose out, benefitted greatly by Canada entering many racers in two previous races. All of which are only competing to get one sled to the Olympics. Uhlaender may have been affected personally in her chances to go the Olympics, not sure what the American criteria is naming their team.

Yeah I read it, the reason that Canadian authorities probably won't even respond is because they know it makes absolutely zero sense. Channel is racing head-to-head with Erlacher of Austria, in the World Cup, to decide the fate of Channel. No racer in the NA cup could possibly have an impact on that. Coaches, and fans, I think will get that pretty quick. The next best 2nd best racer of an NOC is 120 points behind. 

Broke down some numbers of what is still in doubt:
For 3 sleds men and women are done.
For two sleds there is no competition left in men's (  doesn't enter a WC race and secures two?) but in women's its  Erlacher vs  Channel and Erlacher needs to finish probably four positions ahead in final WC race.
 
For one sled, in men's, Takahashi or  Yaw will have to enter a EC or WC race for the first time this year, or it is over. Even if they do they have to gain about 50 points over their current 7th best result, so they would need to score about 100. So men's probably done, unless  Buff does not compete again, even then he could still make it.
 
The women's final few placements could be chaotic and will really depend on who decides to race where on the final weekend. Looking at current 7 best results  Schmied has 492,  Johansen has 493,   Delka has 524, and  Burger has 538. For Delka to miss out then the lower two need to both finish top 20 in a WC or I think top 7 in a EC. They both have a 7th best score of 36 they have to improve on, and who knows if Delka will race one more time or not.

Broke down some numbers of what is still in doubt:
For 3 sleds men and women are done.
For two sleds there is no competition left in men's (  doesn't enter a WC race and secures two?) but in women's its  Erlacher vs  Channel and Erlacher needs to finish probably four positions ahead in final WC race.
 
For one sled, in men's, Takahashi or  Yaw will have to enter a EC or WC race for the first time this year, or it is over. Even if they do they have to gain about 50 points over their current 7th best result, so they would need to score about 100. So men's probably done, unless  Buff does not compete again, even then he could still make it.
 
The women's final few placements could be chaotic and will really depend on who decides to race where on the final weekend. Looking at current 7 best results  Schmied has 492,  Johansen has 493,   Delka has 524, and  Burger has 538. For Delka to miss out then the lower two need to both finish top 20 in a WC or I think top 7 in a EC. They both have a 7th best score of 36 they have to improve on, and who knows if Delka will race one more time or not.

So Canada gave up on sending men, and a relay team to the Olympics I guess. No men entered in Sigulda or Winterberg so they are done and out of qualifying position.

I think the points from the test event should be simple to figure out since WC points from 15th on (continuing through the nations cup races) just count down by 1. Why would it be any different? The only thing that would be uncertain is whether Li and Fischnaller get 1 or 0.  

Big opportunity for  Kanoe Pelfrey, very small field today for the WC halfpipe. 

I would say the chances are quite high, they are fourth in line. Qualifying window closes on January 18th and reallocation will start then. Last time the process happened pretty fast with almost daily updates.

The IBU updated their time frame for which results count towards the wild card olympic spots, and it looks like Dolidovich has moved into a qualifying position. Looking more and more likely like there will be a refugee olympic team for the first time at the Winter games.

The IBU updated their time frame for which results count towards the wild card olympic spots, and it looks like Dolidovich has moved into a qualifying position. Looking more and more likely like there will be a refugee olympic team for the first time at the Winter games.

I agree it is stupid, exactly what happened to Jozef Ninis last week. 

I agree it is stupid, exactly what happened to Jozef Ninis last week. 

FIS has already published what happens here: https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/v2/quota/list/owg/cc/2026 They basically continued giving quotas from where they stopped back in March. So in Men's it was  then  then  , in women's it was  ,  

Dolidovich had her best result yet today, she may have a real shot at the olympics as a refugee entry.

7 nationality changes in view of the 2026 Olympics.  lost four athletes out of the 7 
 
https://www.olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-executive-board-approves-seven-athletes-changes-of-sporting-nationality-for-the-milano-cortina-2026-olympic-winter-games
 
Anyways this confirms the nationality change for the  skier, and he should now qualify. @evil betty

the other consideration is that both genders may use the maximum. Last Olympic cycle they both were at (or below) maximums before additions for relay teams, previous to that the maximum number was higher. So it is possible that they may have to reduce by two male and one female specifically. 

I think the qualifying document says which are the last assigned quotas: D.2.2; the fifth assigned quota for teams who qualified in relay. That comes after the distance quotas. So according to your qualifications the lowest ranked (points) to receive the 5th quotas are:   all from the women's side. Not 100% on this, but it follows the order that they give. Depending on whether you think distance allocation is completed in D.2.1. or D.2.3.

the other consideration is that both genders may use the maximum. Last Olympic cycle they both were at (or below) maximums before additions for relay teams, previous to that the maximum number was higher. So it is possible that they may have to reduce by two male and one female specifically. 

oh i see. I wondered if there was something wrong with the doubles or something.