[OFF TOPIC] Politics Thread

[VolleyRuller96 264]

The Polish elections happened today.

First exit poll:

 

PIS - 43.6 %

KO - 27.4 %

LEFT - 11.9%

KP - 9.6%

KON - 6.4%

 

Margin of error: 2%

 

This is going to be a really interesting night. PIS would only have absolute majority if they got at least 43 %. Currently, they have only 0,6% more than that, which, if we take the 2% margin of error under account means that they may have celebrated too early. Furthermore, basically noone expected Konfederacja to make it, which means that any increase of support for this party means the other ones (primarily PIS) lose seats.

 

At the other hand, the centre party KO (Civic Platform+Modern+Greens+ basically anything you imagine) is clearly the party that failed. They had more than 32 % in previous election, but they failed their campaign miserably. Who knows what might have hapened had Wałęsa restrained himself from insulting the Prime Minister's Morawiecki late father only one day after he passed away. Noone likes Schetyna either, so it's no secret him stepping down would have benefited the party, unfortunately his ego once again overtook him

 

The Left is a big winner. They did not make it to the parlament in 2015, but now they have almost 12% of support, which is really good result if you consider that one of it's leaders is openly homosexual (which was unthinkable in public a few years ago).  They attracted mostly the votes of young people who were tired of constant PO vs PIS battles, and they touched some taboo issues, like abortion or LGBT rights.

 

KP,or the Polish Coalition (PSL+Kukiz) is our agrar party, so they mostly got votes from villages and small towns. Still, they are possibly the biggest winners of these elections, the PSL only achieved 5.1% in 2015, barely passing the electoral threshold, and Kukiz 15 has been considered by many as a dead party. They are centre to centre-right in their views.

 

Konfederacja is the only openly far-right party, and it's a historical success for them. Their leader is Janusz Korwin-Mikke ( you may have heard of him when he performed the nazi salute in EU parliament) and they have some controversial connections and politicians (Robert Winnicki once declared he would not be insulted if he was called a fascist). Still, they are amongs the most popular parties for younger votes. They managed to present themselves as an alternative for PIS, and may very well be the force that causes the ruling party to lose the absolute majority it now holds.

 

I will post an update if there are any late polls.

 

Edited October 13, 2019 by VolleyRuller96

[Olympian1010 7,977]

The head of our foreign affairs committee is hinting that there is work in progress to kick Turkey out of NATO. The US is furious that they’re buying US weapons, and of the on going humanitarian situation they’re creating. 
 

This now makes the UN, Arab Council, and possibly NATO against the Turkish invasion.

 

Also, Trump announces we are pulling all troops from Northern Syria. What a fucking idiot! He should be held responsible in the international court of human rights. 
 

I really hope Turkey gets what they deserve in the next few years. All they have left at this point is Russia.

[Olympian1010 7,977]

Just now, VolleyRuller96 said:

The Polish elections happened today.

First exit poll:

 

PIS - 43.6 %

KO - 27.4 %

LEFT - 11.9%

KP - 9.6%

KON - 6.4%

 

Margin of error: 2%

 

This is going to be a really interesting night. PIS would only have absolute majority if they got at least 43 %. Currently, they have only 0,6% more than that, which, if we take the 2% margin of error under account means that they may have celebrated too early. Furthermore, basically noone expected Konfederacja to make it, which means that any increase of support for this party means the other ones (primarily PIS) lose seats.

 

At the other hand, the centre party KO (Civic Platform+Modern+Greens+ basically anything you imagine) is clearly the party that failed. They had more than 32 % in previous election, but they failed their campaign miserably. Who knows what might have hapened had Wałęsa restrained himself from insulting the Prime Minister's Morawiecki late father only one day after he passed away. Noone likes Schetyna either, so it's no secret him stepping down would have benefited the party, unfortunately his ego once again overtook him

 

The Left is a big winner. They did not make it to the parlament in 2015, but now they have almost 12% of support, which is really good result if you consider that one of it's leaders is openly homosexual (which was unthinkable in public a few years ago).  They attracted mostly the votes of young people who were tired of constant PO vs PIS battles, and they touched some taboo issues, like abortion or LGBT rights.

 

KP,or the Polish Coalition (PSL+Kukiz) is our agrar party, so they mostly got votes from villages and small towns. Still, they are possibly the biggest winners of these elections, the PSL only achieved 5.1% in 2015, barely passing the electoral threshold, and Kukiz 15 has been considered by many as a dead party. They are centre to centre-right in their views.

 

Konfederacja is the only openly far-right party, and it's a historical success for them. Their leader is Janusz Korwin-Mikke ( you may have heard of him when he performed the nazi salute in EU parliament) and they have some controversial connections and politicians (Robert Winnicki once declared he would not be insulted if he was called a fascist). Still, they are amongs the most popular parties for younger votes. They managed to present themselves as an alternative for PIS, and may very well be the force that causes the ruling party to lose the absolute majority it now holds.

 

I will post an update if there are any late polls.

 

So, I don’t want to say I was right in my views about Poland, but...

 

The international trend of young people voting far-left is very interesting. Definitely something to monitor over the next few years. 
 

The older generations are voting further and further right, while the younger generations are voting further and further left. Very interesting. US election will have similar trend. I’ll have to look back and forward at other elections to further study this trend. I think we may be on the verge of moving from far-right to far-left very quick. 

[VolleyRuller96 264]

Late Poll:

 

PIS 43,6%

KO 27,4%

LEFT 12,4%

KP 9,1%

KON 6,4%

[Olympian1010 7,977]

Just now, VolleyRuller96 said:

Late Poll:

 

PIS 43,6%

KO 27,4%

LEFT 12,4%

KP 9,1%

KON 6,4%

I’m assuming this is the best the “left” has done in Poland in a while?

[Vojthas 949]

I'm back from a "walk" of my nearest commissions (in fact I only went to see mine, but they were still counting, so I made a little tour). It seems that our Olympic champion Szymon Ziółkowski will remain in the parlament as he gets third score on the KO's list in these six commissions (and they should get 5-7 seats). Of course, it's just six commissions in a city being almost a suburb (a big one in fact, but still) of a third biggest town in Poland, but I don't think our way of thinking is far from the Poznanian one. Maybe the thing that might work in favour of Ziółkowski in Swarzędz is the fact he lives here for three years (what I got to know just during the campaign) and he had quite a few posters in the city (including really big ones).

 

To add something to VolleyRuller96's summary: PiS is national-socialistic party, though it is controversial to call any party this way. The exit poll says 239 seats - with so many social programs they set during last four years, spending public money on, as it is said, "buying votes" they have just 4 seats more than in 2015. That's really poor and Kaczyński seems to have understood that finally, that it's not half of country with him, but half of country against him. At least that's what he said, for the first time I think. And he looked a little bit sick/drugged, but maybe that's just my impression - he is quite an old man.

 

KO needs a change - with combining PO, .N, Greens and some other liberals they lose 8 seats comparing to the result of PO alone last time (adding to that 28 seats on .N - that's a lot). The leader Schetyna is not a leader, he's an anchor. And he seems to understand it - he even didn't want to be a prime minister (which was a great surprise, knowing his ego). Their only program is being anti-PiS, which would be enough in a more democraticly advanced country. And they seem to have no candidate for the presidential election next spring.

 

Left - an alliance of three parties - post-comune SLD, Wiosna, whose leader is a gay, and Razem, which seems to be most far left of this trio. Wise, clever people, indeed, but we're not very leftist nation. Still was hoping for them to have about 15%.

 

PSL-Kukiz - if Kukiz loses his rebel, punk ideas, becomes more diplomatic, he might create with them a new centre party. PSL's reputation is simply a whore - they'd go with everyone. 10% is their best result since... I remember probably (excluding local elections, when they usually have good result).

 

Konfederacja - far-right, but with such a little result, they won't have a lot to say - rather a trivia in the parlament. Their presence has two good sides - firstly, they will take some seats from the other parties, mostly PiS, secondly, they're more right than PiS and the only economically right party, so they might take some voters from PiS in the next four years (which then becomes a little bit dangerous).

 

Exit polls/late polls (surprisingly very little change) might be a little bit overestimated for PiS, if not with percentage, then with the seats. Except of PSL-Kukiz they have no one to go to alliance with and alliance with PiS might be something what even this green whore wouldn't do. What's more - opposition has no way to became an alliance as Left and Konfederacja are on the other poles of the Earth. But they might block something together.

[Olympian1010 7,977]

The Turkish military (or proxies) shelled a Kurdish civilian convey that was a full of foreign journalists. One journalist confirmed dead, multiple others feared dead, multiple others injured. France 2 was able to confirm their team had not been hit, but was very close to the strike.

 

Also, the Syrian Army is mobilizing North after cutting a deal with YPG/SDF. It seems the YPG/SDF have joined the anti-American alliance in the Middle East, which has grown ten-fold since Trump took office.

 

Turkey has also announced that they will take more territory than originally announced (shocked I tell you, shocked).

 

German chancellor who personally asked Erdogan to stop the attack. Germany and Turkey have been at odds for years, so this will only further the hate between the two.

 

NATO needs to mobilize against Turkey, like we did against Serbia. We can’t have little Russia’s running in around all over the place. Trump has put the US in its worst foreign policy positions since the Vietnam War. China is taking the Pacific, Russia and Saudi Arabia are taking the Middle East, losing our prominence in Western alliances. This isn’t good. I hope impeachment moves fast. 
 

Also, I feel so terribly for the Kurds.

 

For my fellow journalists killed today reporting on the true horrors taking place: ??? 

[heywoodu 15,146]

5 hours ago, Olympian1010 said:

So, I don’t want to say I was right in my views about Poland, but...

 

The international trend of young people voting far-left is very interesting. Definitely something to monitor over the next few years. 
 

The older generations are voting further and further right, while the younger generations are voting further and further left. Very interesting. US election will have similar trend. I’ll have to look back and forward at other elections to further study this trend. I think we may be on the verge of moving from far-right to far-left very quick. 

From one sucky thing to another, yay.

[Olympian1010 7,977]

Just now, heywoodu said:

From one sucky thing to another, yay.

This is how I attempt to explain the phenomenon. The older generations (40+), have lived through, or are old enough to remember the horrors of communism. Meanwhile my generation has only known connection, progressive values, and the horrors of Capitalism. The older generations are voting against rapid change because they cannot handle it. The young generations are voting for rapid change because we won’t live without it. The older generations want a solid government opposed to communism and progressive values. The younger generations want a progressive government that’s opposed to unbridled capitalism. The Old hates the young for what they’ve become, and are attempting to stop change. The young hate what the old have created and are fighting for change, and beginning to make their voices heard. It’s an interesting lesson in class warfare.

[Olympian1010 7,977]

Projected outcome of Tunisian Presidential Election: