Cross-Country Skiing at the Nordic Skiing FIS World Championships 2021

[heywoodu 14,940]

1 minute ago, dcro said:

Pretty sure it counts!

 

http://medias3.fis-ski.com/pdf/2019/CC/4350/2019CC4350RL.pdf

Oh damn  

 

Had totally not thought about that at all, might be a bit of a game changer  

[heywoodu 14,940]

It would not be enough yet to pass Thailand by the way, probably. Assuming the main race will again have roughly 70-80 starters.

[intoronto 5,616]

Solid seventh place for Canada in the men's sprint.

[LowerSaxony 205]

1 hour ago, heywoodu said:

It would not be enough yet to pass Thailand by the way, probably. Assuming the main race will again have roughly 70-80 starters.

Mhm, you surely did the calculations for yourself, but:

 

144 quota places for Women available (w/o host country)

- x quota places allocated via D.1 (max 1 per NOC)

- 65 quota places allocated via D.2 (max 4 per NOC)

- 35 quota places allocated via D.3, rounds 1-3 (max 3 per NOC)

---

= leaving 44-x quota places to be allocated via round 4 of D.3

 

A rough count of the results of the WCh races so far show 31 nations qualified via D.1 + 2additional nations (TUR, LIE) qualified from Under 23-WCh (all with one athlete with less than 300 FIS points). Thus, x=33 (at least around 33, I maybe made a counting mistake)

 

--> 11 quota places to be allocated via D.3/round 4 (max 1 per NOC, starting with 6th place of Nation's Ranking as TOP 5 nations already reached the maximum of 8 places).

--> Thus, if all nations confirm their places, the NOC ranked 16th in the Nations ranking will earn the last available spot (ignoring the host country places so far)

--> The nation ranked 31th would be on 15th position of the reallocation list as the IOC document reads "If an allocated quota place is not confirmed by theNOC by the confirmation of quota place deadline, or is declined by the NOC, the quota place will be reallocated according to Round 4 in D.3 to the next eligible NOC."

--> In 2018, the nation ranked 28th on the reallocation list still earned a spot via reallocation. However, we cannot compare this process to 2022 as there was a combined reallocation list for men and women.

 

But still: Given BRA is ranked 31th on the final reallocation list, there is still a realistic chance for getting a second spot for the Olympics (One is safe for BRA from D.1) as there will surely be some middle to smaller nations who will not confirm their 3rd or 4th spot (f.e. Thailand). If they somehow manage to get on 30th place, there is even a chance for 3 quota places for BRA.

 

Additionally, the host country will surely have 1 or 2 places from the "normal" allocation process, meaning it's more realistic that the nation ranked 31th will be on 13th or 14th position of the reallocation list.

 

I hope I did not forget sth... that's ofc just a rough calculation

 

 

 

[Olympian1010 7,951]

@LowerSaxony Brazil could get a second quota through D.2 if they’re in the top 30, but you’re absolutely right about reallocation as well.

 

My math worked out identical as well when I did the calculations a few days ago, so I think all of this is correct.

 

Edit: Misread the original post, so my comment about D.2 was already covered.

[LowerSaxony 205]

9 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

@LowerSaxony Brazil could get a second quota through D.2 if they’re in the top 30, but you’re absolutely right about reallocation as well.

 

My math worked out identical as well when I did the calculations a few days ago, so I think all of this is correct.

Ah nice. I have to admit that I do not read each and every post here ;-) But double-checking is always preferable in a scientific process, so why not here too?

 

(btw I think there should be a bachelor degree program for understanding Olympic qualification processes with maybe a master program for the qualifications procedures in Canoeing and Biathlon )

 

Anyways, the bottom line is: Team Brazil still has good chances for bringing a team sprint relay to the starting line in Beijing

[Olympian1010 7,951]

3 minutes ago, LowerSaxony said:

Ah nice. I have to admit that I do not read each and every post here ;-) But double-checking is always preferable in a scientific process, so why not here too?

 

(btw I think there should be a bachelor degree program for understanding Olympic qualification processes with maybe a master program for the qualifications procedures in Canoeing and Biathlon )

It’s all good, you explained it much better than I did anyways.

 

Bachelors Degree in Olympic Quota Mathematics, Masters Degree in Olympic Qualification Law 

[Grassmarket 3,377]

17 minutes ago, LowerSaxony said:

Ah nice. I have to admit that I do not read each and every post here ;-) But double-checking is always preferable in a scientific process, so why not here too?

 

(btw I think there should be a bachelor degree program for understanding Olympic qualification processes with maybe a master program for the qualifications procedures in Canoeing and Biathlon )

 

Anyways, the bottom line is: Team Brazil still has good chances for bringing a team sprint relay to the starting line in Beijing

There are also the politics of it.  All Olympic sports are meant to be multi-continental. So somehow no matter what the rules are, there will always be places at the Winter Olympics if there are is one remotely credible South American, African or Caribbean team.

[ahjfcshfghb 287]

5 hours ago, heywoodu said:

Disclaimer: my calculations might very well not be exactly correct.

 

The battleground states in the women's nation's ranking after today:

 

 

I really wonder, and it's of rather big significance, whether or not Thailand, Australia and Armenia (and South Korea/Lithuania, sure) will send someone to the Engadin World Cup (if allowed, which is another question)...if they don't, that is absolutely Brazil's chance.

@heywoodu Could Brazil enter a women's relay? Any other Brazilian women in Europe? Shame Gabi Neres didn't make the trip.

[heywoodu 14,940]

6 minutes ago, ahjfcshfghb said:

@heywoodu Could Brazil enter a women's relay? Any other Brazilian women in Europe? Shame Gabi Neres didn't make the trip.

No, they are the only three (two, actually, Mika is either already on her way home or will be in the next few days).

 

And yeah, but you know. Reasons