How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026？

[copravolley 657]

7 minutes ago, phelps said:

I think you start from the wrong viewpoint: look at the history of the Winter Games; we never won more than 19 medals/7golds (and it happened once in 1994, when we all know that we were in the "Conconi & Ferrari age")

 

we just can't pretend to become a powerhouse in something we always kept aside as a marginal interest (being at home or not, it doesn't make any difference, given that nobody spent money nor energy to promote the Winter Sports in this Country -and nobody will never do it)

We have much better conditions for winter sports than, for example, in France. Look how many kilometers of mountain range they have at home? Maybe a 1/3 as much as we do... The same goes for cross-country skiing trails, biathlon, etc. The entire TDS for many years are held only in Italy... In 1994, there were over a 1/3 fewer events on the Olympic program than now, so those 20 medals would probably became into 30+ now with all these new events in the program.

Edited January 28 by copravolley

[Bailer 162]

8 minutes ago, phelps said:

I think you start from the wrong viewpoint: look at the history of the Winter Games; we never won more than 19 medals/7golds (and it happened once in 1994, when we all know that we were in the "Conconi & Ferrari age")

 

we just can't pretend to become a powerhouse in something we always kept aside as a marginal interest (being at home or not, it doesn't make any difference, given that nobody spent money nor energy to promote the Winter Sports in this Country -and nobody will never do it)

In all seriousness, I'm pretty sure you can be considered a powerhouse. There aren't many countries that regularly win multiple medals at the Winter Olympics while also sending more than a hundred athletes each time.

[phelps 8,767]

5 minutes ago, Bailer said:

Can we borrow a medal or two from you? 

sure!

for me, all the medals we won in "artistic activities" (Summer and Winter, it doesn't matter) are up for grabs 

to me, it's like we never won them 

[phelps 8,767]

4 minutes ago, copravolley said:

We have much better conditions for winter sports than, for example, in France. Look how many kilometers of mountain range they have at home? Maybe a 1/3 as much as we do... The same goes for cross-country skiing trails, biathlon, etc. The entire TDS for many years are held only in Italy... In 1994, there were over a 1/3 fewer events on the Olympic program than now, so those 20 medals would probably became into 30+ now with all these new events in the program.

no, we don't, because we lack the most important thing of them all: the interest 

 

our people living in the mountain territories are only interested in making money with tourism and our politicians and 90% of the Country don't give a damn to Winter Sports because they all come from places where they don't even have a true Winter

 

Winter Sports here are marginals, especially the competitive side

 

until you realize that, you will never be able to understand why Italy has the history they have and why we will never put those sports under the spotlight

[Monzanator 5,136]

20 minutes ago, Bailer said:

Yeah, we don't really pay much attention to it.  We have one athlete who managed to qualify, but the sport overall is pretty much nonexistent here. The two sports you mentioned are probably our best chances this year. Hockey is the most popular sport, almost like a second religion in the country, and has been for decades. Biathlon and Alpine skiing are also closely followed due to recent years of success.

 

I know about Ski Jumping (and Volleyball when it comes to summer sports), but are there any other sports with a strong and successful history in Poland? There must be more disciplines that have brought consistent international success or have a particularly big following.

 

I went to Krakow a few years ago, it's a beautiful place with a great atmosphere. The city has a unique charm that really stays with you. It's not surprising that everyone who visits ends up praising its stunning architecture and historic character.

It doesnt's take a genius to figure out ice hockey is popular in Slovakia hehe (for someone living in Poland where 95% of ice hockey clubs are based in southern Poland  (Tatra region) with the exception of the now defunct Stoczniowiec Gdansk or TKP (Towimor) Toruń. And it does help Jaromir Jagr was the ultimate star when I left my adolescent days (Jari Kurri was before my time but an active veteran) and probably Robert Svehla and Petrovicky were the first two I realized were Slovakian than Czech). Then again I remember Drahomir Kadlec and Bedrich Scerban and Lubomir Sekeras more than anything. Only the last one was Slovakian.

 

Overall from our 7 neighbors Czechia, Slovakia, Belarus get the positive vibes. Ukraine a solid 4th. Lithuania also a positive median. Germany and Russia are down the order to say the very least for historical purposes 

[copravolley 657]

6 minutes ago, phelps said:

no, we don't, because we lack the most important thing of them all: the interest 

 

our people living in the mountain territories are only interested in making money with tourism and our politicians and 90% of the Country don't give a damn to Winter Sports because they all come from places where they don't even have a true Winter

 

Winter Sports here are marginals, especially the competitive side

 

until you realize that, you will never be able to understand why Italy has the history they have and why we will never put those sports under the spotlight

I keep writing about it – about the wasted opportunity in 2006 and now. The government should have started doing this in 2019, when we were awarded the Olympics. And it should have been a bipartisan program, because we've had probably 3 prime ministers since then? Did you see what it looked like? The bobsleigh track was built literally at the last minute. Of course, they had a brilliant excuse: it was Covid, but I'm not convinced of that. 5 years have passed since 2021. Work could have started then and you're right that there's simply a miss of political plan and interest. But why apply to host these Olympics if you don't want doing anything?

Edited January 28 by copravolley

[Monzanator 5,136]

40 minutes ago, hckošice said:

Thanks and good luck to our northern neighbors as well 

 

You killed me with that Hip Hap Hop 

I'm on the wrong side of 40 (Ben Stiller vibes) so yes, I remember Hip Hap Hop haha. I don't remember the presenter's name but I recall his blonde mullet  I live basically 90-120 minutes car drive to the Czech border (and yes, I've been to to old CSRS where I ordered a beer in German to say the very least alas I've also ordered  a beer speaking German in Hungary so we're all in the same sphere anyway  )

[hckošice 16,645]

3 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

I'm on the wrong side of 40 (Ben Stiller vibes) so yes, I remember Hip Hap Hop haha. I don't remember the presenter's name but I recall his blonde mullet  I live basically 90-120 minutes car drive to the Czech border (and yes, I've been to to old CSRS where I ordered a beer in German to say the very least alas I've also ordered  a beer speaking German in Hungary so we're all in the same sphere anyway  )

 

Eva Brettschneiderová, that was the czech one. we had our own TV show for young adolescents in the post comunism-era called crn-crn 

 

oh boy ! That was something else 

[De_Gambassi 1,369]

8 hours ago, Styrka said:

I’m "stealing" your method.  I’m often very bad at this kind of prediction, but I still find it very fun to do.

 

 France's Medal Prospects

 

 

Sports Where France Should Medal

 

 

Biathlon – France usually wins between 5 and 7 medals at the Olympic Games, but since 2022, we’ve been more in the 10+ medals range at the World Championships. It’s no secret that France’s success at these Olympics will depend entirely on biathlon results. The good news is that Lou Jeanmonnot and Julia Simon are absolute monsters on the Antholz Anterselva track. The bad news is that our men’s team hasn’t reached a single individual podium on this track since 2021 (same for Justine Braisaz-Bouchet, who nevertheless did win an Individual race in Antholz five years ago). On top of that, the Italians—Giacomel and Vitozzi in particular—are likely to be untouchable. Still, given the current form of the French team this year and the relatively large number of biathlon events, I don’t think it’s impossible to break the biathlon medal record, or even the record for titles at a single Olympics for . 6–10 medals.

 

Ski Mountaineering – At least one medal in each event doesn’t seem unrealistic, and the Emily Harrop / Thibault Anselmet duo are favorites for gold. 2–3 medals.

 

Figure Skating – Guillaume Cizeron and Laurence Fournier Beaudry are favorites for a podium spot in ice dance, I assume. Adam Siao Him Fa and Kevin Aymoz are not really in contention this year—no chance of reaching the podium this time. 1 medal.

 

Sports Where France Could Medal

 

Snowboarding – As at every Olympics, our snowboard cross team shows up in force, with many athletes who have already reached the podium multiple times in World Cups and World Championships. France always ends up leaving with one, sometimes two medals, but I feel the team tends to underperform most of the time (snowboard cross remains a fairly unpredictable sport). Léa Casta was last year’s world leader, Chloé Trespeusch is coming off three consecutive podiums, and three different men have reached the podium this year in World Cup events… But I fear Charlotte Bankes will be unbeatable among the women, and Adam Lambert looks very strong this year for the men.
Romain Allemand is one of our major hopes for 2030 in big air/slopestyle—we’ll see whether he can already perform this year or simply discover the Olympic atmosphere. 2–3 medals.

 

Freestyle Skiing – As mentioned in an another topic, the absence of Tess Ledeux really hurts. Perrine Laffont is also injured but is expected to be at the Games, probably not in her best shape. That’s four major medal chances gone. All hopes therefore rest on our ski cross teams. Among the women, Marielle Berger-Sabbatel is our best chance, but she often prefers winning the small final rather than making it to the big final —and the competition is fierce in this event. Among the men, Youri Duplessis Kergomard is a regular World Cup podium finisher but rarely performs at championships (except last year, when he finished 2nd before being disqualified). 0–1 medal.

 

Speed Skating – I honestly know nothing about it, but I understand that the French team is in the middle of a resurgence. There are expectations around Timothy Loubineaud, but this pressure is completely new to him (and he has admitted several times that it’s very bad for his mental health), so I’m not sure he’ll perform well at the Games. 0–1 medal.

 

Alpine Skiing – France’s glory years are a long way behind us now. Cyprien Sarrazin is still injured, and I think everything has to be pinned on the men’s slalom. Clément Noël is the reigning Olympic champion, and Paco Rassat has won two races this year. Still, like Timothy Loubineaud, all the pressure will be on their shoulders to save French alpine skiing results… which makes it very tough for them. Unless we get a pleasant surprise elsewhere (Miradoli among the women, or a man in downhill). 0–1 medal.

 

Cross-Country Skiing – Unfortunately, results in cross-country skiing haven’t been good this year. Chanavat is coming back from injury, Claudel has completely disappeared, and Jouve and Chappaz are getting older… There’s always a small chance in the men’s relay, as every four years, but aside from Lapalus and Desloges, we’re lacking new talent. 0–1 medal.

 

 

Sports Where France Won't Medal

 

All other sports – No chance.

 

 

Summary

 

Final prediction – 11–21 medals.
I’ve read some people here saying that France could be a pleasant surprise at these Olympic Games. I agree that the momentum is excellent for 2030, but the French team is still a bit “young” for this year. Beating the medal record (15) would already be a great success.

 

Basically, that. I'd be a bit more hopeful on alpine skiing (1-2) . Noël + Rassat make for a very, very good chance in men's slalom by itself and all the other outsiders + the men's team make for a solid second shot IMO. 

Also, Laffont has been back this week-end and it seems she was doing good.

I had a go before reading your post, and it was almost exactly the same for the other disciplines:

Alpine : 1-2
Biathlon : 6-10 (yes, exactly the same range)
Nordic : 0-1
Snowboarding : 2
Freestyle : 1-2 (including a fit Laffont)
Ski Mountaineering : 2-3
Speed Skating ; 0-1
Figure skating : 1

Total : 13-22 (let's say 17-18)

[Book 103]

Someone has to tally USA up, I'll make it as short as I can.
 

• Alpine Skiing: 2-5. Shiffrin and Vonn have a chance to medal in any event they are a part of. Small chance for a men's athlete to medal like in 2022. 1 gold and 1 silver to Shiffrin. Gold in women's team. 3 total.
• Bobsled: 1-3. Women's monobob team has the former gold medalist (Kaillie Humphries), the most recent world champion (Kayasha Love), and a medalist in both (Elana Meyers Taylor). Two medals in the event is very possible with a two woman as a chance. 1 gold in monobob
• Cross-Country ski: 1-4. Jesse Diggins has been ripping up the world circuit since her 2022 silver in 30km free and bronze in sprint. She'll get another medal this year, and could go for a legacy games with 4. 2 gold and 1 silver to diggins. So 3 total
• Figure Skating: 3-5. Ilia Malinin for men's, Madison Chock and Evan Bates for ice dancing, and the team event are some of the safest medals for team USA. I would expect another medal or two from the women's singles, but it's thin ice there between 2 medals or 0 in that event. 1 gold to Ilia, Chock and Bates, and the team. 1 silver to Liu in women's. 4 total
• Freestyle skiing: 6-11. The best winter sport for team USA, with 8 medals in the last Olympics and 9 at the 2025 worlds. High medal chances in men's aerials, slope, half and women's dual moguls, aerials, and mixed aerial teams. Good chances in men's big air and women's single moguls. Double medals in the strongest events is also likely. I'd say 9 is reasonable as the inclusion of double moguls could give 1-3 just in the women's event. 9 in total, too many to count
• Ice Hockey: 1-2. The women's team medals, they have done it every time and shouldn't stop this year. An NHL lead men's team should be getting a medal but a chance encounter with Canada could slow things down. Gold or silver for women's, bronze for men's. 2
• Short Track Speed Skating: 0-1. There's 8 events the US has qualified for, it's a chaotic sport, one odd medal seems possible but not likely. 0 likely
• Skeleton: 0-1. Mystique Ro won 2 medals at the most recent world's albeit on home ice in Lake Placid. She has 2 chances to show up in individual and mixed relay and could win a medal. Bronze to Ro. 1
• Snowboard: 0-4. This is a rough year for US snowboarding. Although we invented the sport, like skateboarding, the Japanese have mastered it. Chole Kim sits as the sole star for the team and if she's recovered from her recent injury should win halfpipe, but it's a looming question. There's chances in men's slope and big air from Ollie Martin or maybe Red Gerrard. The 4th medal would come from Men's snowboard cross where there's 4 top athletes. Maybe a bit harsh, we could go 5 or 6 if things align, but we could also reasonably get nothing. 3 seems doable, 1 gold to Kim, 1 bronze to Marin, 1 cross medal in men's or mixed team. 3
• Speed skating: 3-6.  I had no idea the US team was this strong. Jordan Stolz is that guy and based on recent championships should medal in the 3 shortest distances if not win a few. Add in a very strong team pursuit squad for men's and a top 5 women's team and good athletes in the mass start event and we could see this as US's second best sport. 3 medals to Stolz, one in men's pursuit. 4
  
  So tallied up the range is 17-42, which is basically a meaningless range to be honest because neither extreme is possible. I went back over and gave an official prediction with 30 medals total. 5 more then in Beijing. Maybe optimistic, but I think that makes sense with extra chances in double moguls, a stronger men's hockey team, and the Stolz having a good games. Reasonable range is 24-32

Edited January 28 by Book
Fix Kaillie Humphries name