How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026？

[orangeman 2,314]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

15, lowest medal count for  since Nagano 1998 

 

Total disaster in almost every single event 

 

Kidding, but something tells me we won't have a "successful" Olympics, half of our realistic gold medal chances come in short track and we're probably gonna get penalized by the judges or crash knowing our luck

I know you're kidding, but here I go. 29 medals, 12 golds. There, I said it. Rebounds in hockey, curling, and short track domination. They will struggle to find the top of the podium a lot of the time, but nowhere near the disaster of Beijing. I don't even think there will be tons of surprises, just the expected doing what's expected.

 

Am I alone in feeling like there are very little predictions by publications this time around? Usually there are several online and in print predictions by now, but I can't find anything outside this site, besides a couple of figure skating and hockey ones. Not even Gracenote? 

[Topicmaster1010 5,694]

ah yes, one of my favourite threads is here. Let's begin

 

 Canada's Medal Prospects

 

Sports Where Canada Should Medal

 

Curling: I contemplated whether or not I should put curling in this tier or the one below but ultimately I put it here because I it's just really hard to imagine Canada not winning a single curling medal at an Olympics. Rachel Homan will come into the Olympics as the gold medal favourite on the women's side after winning the last two World Championships. She's been a bit shaky in competitions this year but also does have a Grand Slam win and comfortably won Canadian Trials. On the men's side, Brad Jacobs is the reigning World Bronze Medalist and will also be in gold medal contention. Peterman/Gallant in mixed doubles should also be medal contenders. 1-3 medals

 

Freestyle Skiing: As always, Canada will have many medal contenders in this discipline and it should provide a good chunk of the medal haul. We can go event by event.

 

Moguls/Dual Moguls: Mikael Kingsbury is the biggest name here and the moguls GOAT will be favoured to bring home 2 medals in the moguls events. He's not alone however, as Julien Viel also has two podiums this year and Maia Schwinghammer is also capable of winning a medal in the women's events. I would expect at least 2 medals and 3 or more would be great.

 

Aerials: On the men's side, Miha Fontaine, Lewis Irving, and Emile Nadeau have all won medals in world cup events during the qualification period. Fontaine is in the best form this year so he would probably be the best bet for a medal. The biggest medal favourite though is Marion Thenault in the women's aerials event who has 2 podiums this year. The mixed team aerials should also be a medal opportunity.

 

Ski Cross: Reece Howden has been on fire this year and will be the gold medal favourite heading into the Olympics. Kevin Drury also has a gold medal this year in a World Cup event and is very a medal contender as well. Jared Schmidt could also figure onto the podium. On the women's side, it's been a season to forget with 3 of the top 5 Canadians out for the year but Marielle Thompson is heading into the Olympics on a good note winning a bronze in the final World Cup Event.

 

Halfpipe: Injuries have also plagued many of the top halfpipe skiers this year as Andrew Longino is the only athlete who's podiumed on the World Cup this year. Cassie Sharpe also won x-games bronze this past weekend. Brendan Mackay, Amy Fraser, and Rachael Karker are also capable of winning medals but the competition is fierce at the top so who knows what will happen.

 

Slopestyle/Big Air: Expecting a lot of things from this team. All 6 athletes entered have won a medal this year. On the women's side, Naomi Urness has been a revelation already with 3 big air podiums this year. Megan Oldham continues to consistently find the podium in her events, Olivia Asselin has a medal in slopestyle, and Elena Gaskell has had a nice comeback already with a slopestyle podium as well this year. The men's side is more competitive but Dylan Deschamps and Evan McEachran are capable of reaching the podium as well. Would be very disappointed if we didn't get any medals here.

 

Altogether, predicting 3-8 medals

 

Ice Hockey: With NHL players back, the expectation is two gold medals or bust. The men will probably be slight favourites over the US thanks to the star power that they present with the two best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon. Add one of the greatest players of all time, Sidney Crosby, the best defensemen in the league, Cale Makar, and the best teenager in the world, Macklin Celebrini, and you have the makings of a very dangerous team. Goaltending will be the biggest question mark. Speaking of question marks, the women's team is definitely a big question mark after they got swept by the US 4-0 in a recent rivalry series. They'll be heavy underdogs but in the Olympics, anything is possibile. 1-2 medals

 

Short Track: There are going to be big expectations for this team after winning the team trophy the last two World Cup Seasons and dominating the 2025 World Championships with 6 gold medals and 10 medals overall. William Dandjinou will head into Milan as the favourite to take home multiple gold medals. He has won the overal Crystal Globe the last two seasons and won 7 individual races during the latest World Cup season. He'll threaten in all his events. Steven Dubois will also be looking to take home some hardware after winning two individual gold medals during the 2025 World Championships. He's most dangerous in the 500m where he'll be one of the favourites to win alongside Dandjinou. On the women's side, Courtney Sarault is the defending overall Crystal Globe winner having won 5 individual races this year. Like Dandjinou, she'll be a threat in all of her events. The team is so deep that the other athletes not mentioned are also capable of winning individual medals. The relays will all favourites to win a medal but they've been incredibly inconsistent this year so hopefully that gets fixed before the games start. 4-11 medals (a wide range just because of the unpredictability of short track)

 

Speed Skating: Things were looking dark for this team last year, but this year has been a big of a bounceback especially in the women's distance events. Between Valerie Maltais and Isabelle Weidemann, the two of them have combined to win a long distance event at each World Cup stop this year and should be favourites to win a medal in Milan. The women's team pursuit has also had a nice bounceback season with a podium in each world cup race including a gold medal win during the final stop. Ivanie Blondin and Valerie Maltais will also be among the favourites to win a medal in the mass start. Unfortunately, the men haven't been as good this year. Laurent Dubreuil has been among the best 500m skaters the last half decade but has struggled to find his form this year. If he can regain that form again, then he'll be among the contenders for a medal. There's also some outside shots for medals in the men's long distance events, women's 1000m and women's 1500m. 2-5 medals

 

Sports Where Canada Could Medal

 

Ski Jumping: For the first time since the days of Horst Bulau, Canada enters an Olympics with legitimate medal aspirations in ski jumping. It didn't start out that way thought as the 2023 World Champion Alexandria Loutitt was injured in the test event and was forced to miss the entirety of the season. However, Abi Strate has stepped up to have a career year. She ranks 5th in the World Cup Standings (and would be higher if she didn't skip 2 competitions). On top of that, she has 6 podiums this year including podiums in her last 3 competitions and could be peaking just in time for the Olympics. 0-2 medals

 

Snowboarding: Even though Canada won 5 medals in snowboarding in 2022, I don't think a snowboard medal is guaranteed here. A big part of that reason is the uncertainty surrounding the slopestyle and big air team. Unfortunately 2025 slopestyle world champion, Liam Brearley, is out of the Olympics injured. Cam Spalding, Francis Jobin, and Eli Bouchard all won World Cup Events last year but haven't made any podiums this year so far (the highest was a 4th place by Bouchard). The veteran, Mark McMorris, is coming off X-Games gold in the slopestyle but has more often than not failed to get out of qualifying during competitions the last two years. Laurie Blouin has also been inconsistent but is capable of medaling on her best days.

 

In snowboard cross, Eliot Grondin will likely head into the Olympics as the favourite in the men's snowboard cross (or at the very least a favourite to medal). He won 5 events last year including the world championship but only has one podium so far this year. It remains to be seen what kind of form he will be in.

 

There's also some outside chances for medals including women's halfpipe and the PGS events where Canada has won a couple of surprise medals this year.

 

I still think Canada wins at least one medal but it's not a guarantee. 1-4 medals

 

Sports Where Canada is Unlikely to Medal

 

Alpine Skiing/Cross-Country Skiing: Unfortunately, Canada hasn't quite reached the heights of the 2023 Alpine Skiing World Championships where they won 4 medals. There are skiers that have podiumed during the qualification period and are capable of podium finishes (Cameron Alexander, Jack Crawford, Valerie Grenier) but the consistency isn't there. Cameron Alexander did win a bronze medal in the downhill test event so maybe there's a small chance there. 

 

For Cross-Country Skiing, we're sending a very young team this year. They haven't had any podium finishes at all during the qualification period but the flashes of potential have definitely been there with a couple of individual 4th places and a couple of 5th place showings. A medal is highly unlikely but it wouldn't be unrealistic.

 

Altogether, 0-1 medals

 

Bobsleigh/Skeleton: Oh how far we've fallen in these sports. Even just 4 years ago, we had regular bobsleigh medal contenders but a combination of certain retirements, the closure of the Calgary track and corruption within the federation has left the team in a bit of disarray. The men's bobsleigh and skeleton team have no shot at a medal. On the women's side, Cynthia Appiah and Melissa Lotholz on their best days are capable of medals but those days have been rare during the qualification period. In skeleton, Hallie Clarke is the 2024 World Champion and still only 21 years old but hasn't made a senior podium since. 0-1 medals

 

Figure Skating: I contemplated putting this in the thread under "could medal" but thought it would be better here. There's 3 medal chances for Canada here: Gilles/Poirier in ice dance, Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps in pairs, and the team event. Unfortunately Stellato-Dudek and Deschamps have not had a great season at all and are likely out of the running for the medals. In ice dance, Gilles/Poirier have been skating well but finished 4th at the Grand Prix Final. Unfortunately, the formation of the Fournier-Beaudry/Cizeron pairing has complicated things and with ice dance, it's unlikely that the rankings will change that much from competition to competition. The team event could have a chance but will be in tough with Italy and Georgia for the bronze medal. No chance in the singles events but Stephen Gogolev has had a great season and could finish in the top 10. 0-2 medals

 

Sports Where Canada Won't Medal

 

Biathlon: Unfortunately a combination of some retirements + a lack of funding has left the biathlon team in a pedestrian state especially on the men's side where we just qualified a relay. However, both Nadia Moser and Shilo Rousseau have had great seasons so far but are still far out of the medal picture. I'm hoping for some top 30 finishes from the Canadian athletes and if someone qualifies for the mass start, that would be a bonus.

 

Luge: The team is still in a rebuild stage ever since winning a silver in the team relay 8 years ago. They did have a fluke bronze medal win in the World Championship relay last year but won't be able to enter this year as Canada didn't qualify a male athlete. A top 5 finish from the women's doubles team and a top 12 finish from one of the women's singles athletes would be a great result.

 

Nordic Combined/Ski Mountaineering: No athletes

 

Summary

 

Floor: 12 medals

Ceiling: 39 medals

 

Expected # of medals: 26 medals 

Edited 6 hours ago by Topicmaster1010

[TeamGB 211]

At this point I'm basically just procrastinating on all my uni assignments but here's my attempt.

 

 Great Britain's Medal Prospects 

LIKELY

 

Curling - In my view, Mouat's rink are undeserving of the title of outright favourites, but they are certainly up there, as is the mixed team. The women's rink isn't as strong but they surprised me with the European performance so who knows. Overall, I think leaving without a medal would be seen as a real disappointment. 

 

Freestyle Skiing - Zoe Atkin and Kirsty Muir have both won world cup and X games golds this season, so will be up there for the medals. Freestyle Skiing is an unpredictable sport though so no guarantees can be made. I would say Muir is the more likely out of the two (especially considering she's entered in two events). Elsewhere on the team the chances are slim to none. Gus Kenworthy has come out of retirement but frankly it would be a huge surprise to see him anywhere near to podium again.

 

Skeleton - After such a disappointing Beijing, the team has been reborn, with Matt Weston and Marcus Wyatt claiming all world cup golds this season. The women's team has been less consistent, with Tabby Stoecker being the most likely to contend, although on their say all 3 women can challenge. The mixed relay provides further medal opportunities, although so far this season it has been quite unpredictable. Realistically though, multiple medals are on the cards and I would hope a gold is as well.

 

Snowboarding - Mia Brookes again performed strongly at the X-Games, so she should be in contention for both her events. Charlotte Bankes seems to be finding some form as well, and she and Huw Nightingale are always formidable in the snowboard cross. Across these events, I would hope there will be at least one medal, but winter sports always throw curveballs.

 

POSSIBLE

 

Bobsleigh - A couple of years ago this would have been fairly likely but Brad Halls form is not as strong. He seems to have been improving over the last few races to it wouldn't be unsurprising if he could snag a bronze in one of the disciplines, but nothing further is likely.

 

Figure Skating - The media likes to hype things up, and this talk about Fear and Gibson being the next Torvil and Dean is frankly misguided. To be clear, on their day, they can certainly content for a medal, but they have to be flawless, and their European performance was anything but. The emergence of the new French pairing will certainly harm their chances too.

 

 VERY UNLIKELY

 

Alpine Skiing - It looks as though all three athletes are only entered in the Slalom, which does simplify our prospects. Dave Ryding has shown he can win a medal on his day, and Laurie Taylor finished 4th earlier in the season, but the be blunt it would be a major shock if either could get on the podium. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

 

Cross Country Skiing - Andy Musgrave is in a similar camp to Dave Ryding where if everything falls into place, a medal is possible, but it is a huge stretch. Joe Davies looks to be the strongest on the team but again, the strength of other nations, even without the Russians, makes this highly improbable.

 

Short Track Speed Skating - Niall Treacy is the only athlete entered, and whilst he has won a world cup medal in the past, he would need quite a lot of fortune to repeat that feat. Again, it is short track, so who knows.

 

 

 

IMPOSSIBLE

 

Biathlon - No way, I was surprised we even sent a team.

 

Speed Skating - Elia Smeding has slowly been creeping up the order this season in the 1000m but I fear it is too little too late. A top 10 finish is on the cards though for sure.

 

 

Summary

 

To be honest I'm to wary of the unpredictability of winter sports to give the team a floor, but quietly I whisper 2 medals minimum.

 

If all went to plan, I could realistically see a maximum of 18 medals (3 curling, 3 Freestyle Skiing, 5 skeleton, 2  bobsleigh, 4 snowboarding and 1 figure skating), but I think I'm more likely to get struck by lightning then to get anywhere close to that.

 

This would leave me with an expected total of 6 medals, which would be a new record. 

 

Can't wait to be proved woefully wrong and we stagger back with a few scraps like 4 years ago. 

 

[Grassmarket 4,097]

14 minutes ago, TeamGB said:

At this point I'm basically just procrastinating on all my uni assignments but here's my attempt.

 

 Great Britain's Medal Prospects 

LIKELY

 

Curling - In my view, Mouat's rink are undeserving of the title of outright favourites, but they are certainly up there, as is the mixed team. The women's rink isn't as strong but they surprised me with the European performance so who knows. Overall, I think leaving without a medal would be seen as a real disappointment. 

 

Freestyle Skiing - Zoe Atkin and Kirsty Muir have both won world cup and X games golds this season, so will be up there for the medals. Freestyle Skiing is an unpredictable sport though so no guarantees can be made. I would say Muir is the more likely out of the two (especially considering she's entered in two events). Elsewhere on the team the chances are slim to none. Gus Kenworthy has come out of retirement but frankly it would be a huge surprise to see him anywhere near to podium again.

 

Skeleton - After such a disappointing Beijing, the team has been reborn, with Matt Weston and Marcus Wyatt claiming all world cup golds this season. The women's team has been less consistent, with Tabby Stoecker being the most likely to contend, although on their say all 3 women can challenge. The mixed relay provides further medal opportunities, although so far this season it has been quite unpredictable. Realistically though, multiple medals are on the cards and I would hope a gold is as well.

 

Snowboarding - Mia Brookes again performed strongly at the X-Games, so she should be in contention for both her events. Charlotte Bankes seems to be finding some form as well, and she and Huw Nightingale are always formidable in the snowboard cross. Across these events, I would hope there will be at least one medal, but winter sports always throw curveballs.

 

POSSIBLE

 

Bobsleigh - A couple of years ago this would have been fairly likely but Brad Halls form is not as strong. He seems to have been improving over the last few races to it wouldn't be unsurprising if he could snag a bronze in one of the disciplines, but nothing further is likely.

 

Figure Skating - The media likes to hype things up, and this talk about Fear and Gibson being the next Torvil and Dean is frankly misguided. To be clear, on their day, they can certainly content for a medal, but they have to be flawless, and their European performance was anything but. The emergence of the new French pairing will certainly harm their chances too.

 

 VERY UNLIKELY

 

Alpine Skiing - It looks as though all three athletes are only entered in the Slalom, which does simplify our prospects. Dave Ryding has shown he can win a medal on his day, and Laurie Taylor finished 4th earlier in the season, but the be blunt it would be a major shock if either could get on the podium. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

 

Cross Country Skiing - Andy Musgrave is in a similar camp to Dave Ryding where if everything falls into place, a medal is possible, but it is a huge stretch. Joe Davies looks to be the strongest on the team but again, the strength of other nations, even without the Russians, makes this highly improbable.

 

Short Track Speed Skating - Niall Treacy is the only athlete entered, and whilst he has won a world cup medal in the past, he would need quite a lot of fortune to repeat that feat. Again, it is short track, so who knows.

 

 

 

IMPOSSIBLE

 

Biathlon - No way, I was surprised we even sent a team.

 

Speed Skating - Elia Smeding has slowly been creeping up the order this season in the 1000m but I fear it is too little too late. A top 10 finish is on the cards though for sure.

 

 

Summary

 

To be honest I'm to wary of the unpredictability of winter sports to give the team a floor, but quietly I whisper 2 medals minimum.

 

If all went to plan, I could realistically see a maximum of 18 medals (3 curling, 3 Freestyle Skiing, 5 skeleton, 2  bobsleigh, 4 snowboarding and 1 figure skating), but I think I'm more likely to get struck by lightning then to get anywhere close to that.

 

This would leave me with an expected total of 6 medals, which would be a new record. 

 

Can't wait to be proved woefully wrong and we stagger back with a few scraps like 4 years ago. 

 

I am more optimistic about the Freestyle events because I think the scoring in them is always biased towards the established favourites.  A bit like diving where the Chinese are always awarded a higher tariff because their dives are judged to be more complicated.  Obviously the big names still have to go out and perform without making a huge mess of it, but a complex routine performed at 95% will outscore an average routine performed at 100%

[Holgermat 7]

Something between 25-35 for 

[phelps 8,361]

as usual, no expectations

 

0-25 is quite a good range, though