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Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026 Qualification Simulation

Topicmaster1010
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Topicmaster1010
Topicmaster1010

Updated Quota Projections at Christmas Break   Numbers in parenthesis represent the quota change for that NOC since the last update in September.   Africa (8 nations)    

intoronto
intoronto

is officially qualified now

intoronto
intoronto

She did no tricks down Run 1. She should not be going to the Olympics, its a mockery of the sport. 

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clemsonbeav Enthusiast

clemsonbeav   308

Posted
Posted

I think :VAN's athlete probably earned enough points today in the Quals of Halfpipe to get the nod.  Will need to wait for confirmation, but I think so.

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evil betty Contributor

evil betty   88

Posted
Posted
On 12/18/2025 at 7:05 PM, clemsonbeav said:

I think :VAN's athlete probably earned enough points today in the Quals of Halfpipe to get the nod.  Will need to wait for confirmation, but I think so.

not far off, but still no. running out of time maybe. Still has Aspen and Calgary, possibly NAC event at Copper Mountain as a last resort.

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evil betty Contributor

evil betty   88

Posted
Posted

The IBU updated their time frame for which results count towards the wild card olympic spots, and it looks like Dolidovich has moved into a qualifying position. Looking more and more likely like there will be a refugee olympic team for the first time at the Winter games.

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Topicmaster1010 Rising Star

Topicmaster1010   5,806

Posted
Posted (edited)

Updated Quota Projections at Christmas Break

 

Numbers in parenthesis represent the quota change for that NOC since the last update in September.

 

Africa (8 nations)

 

:BEN Benin: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:ERI Eritrea: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:GBS Guinea-Bissau: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:KEN Kenya: 2 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

:MAD Madagascar: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

:MAR Morocco: 2 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:NGR Nigeria: 1 (0)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:RSA South Africa: 5 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 1, Skeleton - 1)

 

Americas (15 nations)

 

:ARG Argentina: 8 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Luge - 1)

:BOL Bolivia: 1 (0)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:BRA Brazil: 11 (-5)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Skeleton - 1, Snowboarding - 2)

:CAN Canada: 203 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 10, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 12, Cross-Country Skiing - 11, Curling - 11, Figure Skating - 12, Freestyle Skiing - 32, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 7, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 4, Ski Jumping - 4, Snowboarding - 19, Speed Skating - 15)

:CHI Chile: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 1)

:COL Colombia: 1 (-1)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:ECU Ecuador: 1 (NEW)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:HAI Haiti: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:JAM Jamaica: 9 (+8)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Bobsleigh - 8)

MEX.gif Mexico: 5 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Figure Skating - 1)

:PUR Puerto Rico: 1 (0)

(Skeleton - 1)

:TTO Trinidad and Tobago: 6 (+4)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 4)

:USA United States: 227 (+9)

(Alpine Skiing - 17, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 14, Cross-Country Skiing - 15, Curling - 11, Figure Skating - 16, Freestyle Skiing - 32, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 11, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 8, Skeleton - 3, Ski Jumping - 6, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 22, Speed Skating - 12)

:URU Uruguay: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:VEN Venezuela: 1 (NEW)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 

Asia (18 nations)

 

:CHN China: 124 (+7)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 3, Bobsleigh - 12, Cross-Country Skiing - 6, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 6, Freestyle Skiing - 23, Luge - 5, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 5, Ski Jumping - 4, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 18, Speed Skating - 16)

:HKG Hong Kong: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Short Track - 1)

:IND India: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:IRI Iran: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:JPN Japan: 124 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Curling - 5, Figure Skating - 12, Freestyle Skiing - 19, Ice Hockey - 23, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 3, Short Track - 9, Skeleton - 2, Ski Jumping - 8, Snowboarding - 19, Speed Skating - 14)

:KAZ Kazakhstan: 35 (-7)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 10, Nordic Combined - 1, Short Track - 4, Ski Jumping - 2, Speed Skating - 5)

:KGZ Kyrgyzstan: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:LBN Lebanon: 3 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:MAS Malaysia: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:MGL Mongolia: 3 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:PHI Philippines: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:KSA Saudi Arabia: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:SGP Singapore: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:KOR South Korea: 72 (+10)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 2, Bobsleigh - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Curling - 7, Figure Skating - 6, Freestyle Skiing - 6, Luge - 1, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 4, Snowboarding - 12, Speed Skating - 9)

:TWN Taiwan: 8 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Figure Skating - 1, Speed Skating - 1)

:THA Thailand: 3 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:UAE United Arab Emirates: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

:UZB Uzbekistan: 4 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 2, Short Track - 1)

 

Europe (48 nations)

 

:ALB Albania: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 4)

:AND Andorra: 7 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 3)

:ARM Armenia: 5 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:AUT Austria: 112 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 22, Biathlon - 9, Bobsleigh - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 14, Luge - 11, Nordic Combined - 3, Short Track - 1, Skeleton - 3, Ski Jumping - 8, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 17, Speed Skating - 4)

:AZE Azerbaijan: 1 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 1)

:BEL Belgium: 31 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 2, Short Track - 6, Skeleton - 1, Ski Mountaineering - 1, Snowboarding - 1, Speed Skating - 6)

:BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina: 6 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Luge - 1)

:BUL Bulgaria: 20 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Ski Jumping - 1, Snowboarding - 4)

:CRO Croatia: 13 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 6, Biathlon - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Short Track - 1)

:CYP Cyprus: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

:CZE Czech Republic: 110 (-11)

(Alpine Skiing - 5, Biathlon - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 11, Curling - 7, Figure Skating - 4, Freestyle Skiing - 5, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 1, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 4, Snowboarding - 9, Speed Skating - 3)

:DEN Denmark: 41 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 3, Bobsleigh - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Curling - 5, Ice Hockey - 25, Skeleton - 1, Speed Skating - 3)

:EST Estonia: 31 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Curling - 2, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 3, Nordic Combined - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 2, Snowboarding - 1, Speed Skating - 1)

:FIN Finland: 100 (-2)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 15, Figure Skating - 5, Freestyle Skiing - 8, Ice Hockey - 48, Nordic Combined - 2, Ski Jumping - 6, Snowboarding - 2)

:FRA France: 158 (+6)

(Alpine Skiing - 15, Biathlon - 12, Bobsleigh - 6, Cross-Country Skiing - 14, Figure Skating - 9, Freestyle Skiing - 19, Ice Hockey - 48, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 6, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 6, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 10, Speed Skating - 6)

:GEO Georgia: 8 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Figure Skating - 6)

:GER Germany: 189 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 11, Biathlon - 11, Bobsleigh - 18, Cross-Country Skiing - 13, Curling - 5, Figure Skating - 6, Freestyle Skiing - 13, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 12, Nordic Combined - 3, Skeleton - 6, Ski Jumping - 8, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 19, Speed Skating - 13)

:GBR Great Britain: 59 (+3)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 2, Bobsleigh - 9, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 8, Freestyle Skiing - 8, Short Track - 3, Skeleton - 5, Snowboarding - 5, Speed Skating - 1)

:GRE Greece: 5 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 3)

:HUN Hungary: 16 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Figure Skating - 2, Short Track - 6, Snowboarding - 1, Speed Skating - 1)

:ISL Iceland: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:IRL Ireland: 6 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 2)

:ISR Israel: 9 (+5)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 1, Skeleton - 1)

:ITA Italy: 187 (-4)

(Alpine Skiing - 20, Biathlon - 10, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 12, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 9, Freestyle Skiing - 9, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 11, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 3, Ski Jumping - 7, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 16, Speed Skating - 9)

:KOS Kosovo: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

:LAT Latvia: 67 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Figure Skating - 2, Ice Hockey - 25, Luge - 10, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 2)

:LIE Liechtenstein: 8 (+4)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:LTU Lithuania: 17 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Figure Skating - 3)

:LUX Luxembourg: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

:MLT Malta: 1 (0)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:MDA Moldova: 5 (+1)

(Biathlon - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:MON Monaco: 1 (-4)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:MNE Montenegro: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

:NED Netherlands: 42 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 4, Figure Skating - 2, Nordic Combined - 1, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 1, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 18)

:MKD North Macedonia: 4 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:NOR Norway: 81 (-9)

(Alpine Skiing - 16, Biathlon - 11, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Curling - 7, Freestyle Skiing - 5, Nordic Combined - 3, Ski Jumping - 7, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 3, Speed Skating - 10)

:POL Poland: 55 (-5)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Figure Skating - 4, Luge - 5, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 4, Ski Jumping - 5, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 9)

:POR Portugal: 4 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Speed Skating - 1)

:ROU Romania: 28 (-6)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 6, Bobsleigh - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Luge - 6, Ski Jumping - 4, Snowboarding - 2)

:SMR San Marino: 1 (NEW)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

:SRB Serbia: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

:SVK Slovakia: 54 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 6, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Ice Hockey - 25, Luge - 8, Short Track - 1, Ski Jumping - 1, Ski Mountaineering - 3)

:SLO Slovenia: 38 (-3)

(Alpine Skiing - 9, Biathlon - 9, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Nordic Combined - 2, Ski Jumping - 7, Snowboarding - 4)

:ESP Spain: 19 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 5, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 1)

:SWE Sweden: 115 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 9, Biathlon - 12, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Curling - 11, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 15, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 2, Ski Jumping)

:SUI Switzerland: 179 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 22, Biathlon - 10, Bobsleigh - 18, Cross-Country Skiing - 12, Curling - 11, Figure Skating - 3, Freestyle Skiing - 21, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 5, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 18, Speed Skating - 3)

:TUR Türkiye: 8 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Short Track - 2, Ski Jumping - 2)

:UKR Ukraine: 44 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 6, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 9, Luge - 8, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 2, Snowboarding - 1)

 

Oceania (3 nations)

 

:AUS Australia: 54 (-3)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Bobsleigh - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Figure Skating - 4, Freestyle Skiing - 16, Luge - 1, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 14)

:NZL New Zealand: 20 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Freestyle Skiing - 10, Snowboarding - 6)

:VAN Vanuatu: 1 (0)

(Freestyle Skiing - 1)

 

Other (2 nations)

 

:AIN Individual Neutral Athletes: 17 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 3, Freestyle Skiing - 1, Luge - 2, Short Track - 2, Ski Mountaineering - 1, Speed Skating - 3)

:IOC Refugee Olympic Team: 1 (NEW)

(Biathlon - 1)

Edited by Topicmaster1010

_

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rybak Rising Star

rybak   3,340

Posted
Posted

With little more than 3 weeks before end of qualifications any country besides :IOC:PUR and :VAN have more than 90% chances for being officialy qualified?

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intoronto Proficient

intoronto   6,657

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, rybak said:

With little more than 3 weeks before end of qualifications any country besides :IOC:PUR and :VAN have more than 90% chances for being officialy qualified?

:PAK

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copravolley Community Regular

copravolley   565

Posted
Posted (edited)

Any qualifying number under 190 people for us will be a failure for me. In Turin 20 years ago, we had 185. Another thing is that for me, with the possible exception of ice hockey, the host team used to have an easier time qualifying than now. Now we have to qualify normally almost everywhere, and the additional quotas for the host team are minimal. On the other hand, there are sports, like freestyle, where we are right to single quotas that we are 99% sure we won't use... It's a shame that we can't be moved they to where we are more needed, like snowboardcross or men's cross-country skiing.

Edited by copravolley
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