Summer Olympic Games Los Angeles 2028 Qualifying Simulation Road to LA 2028

[JoshMartini007 2,839]

6 hours ago, Benolympique said:

Is it possible to have just your projections for team sports? Thank you.

Nations

Baseball Softball

Basketball

Cricket

Field Hockey

Flag Football

Football

Handball

Lacrosse

Rugby Sevens

Volleyball

Water Polo

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[JoshMartini007 2,839]

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update

 

Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.

 

Here is the link to the updated sheet.

 

 

Aquatics (Water Polo)

The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.

 

Athletics (Marathon)

Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of

 

Badminton

Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.

 

Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.

 

Canoeing

The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.

 

Cricket

The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.

 

Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)

Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.

 

Fencing

We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.

 

In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.

 

Handball

Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.

 

Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.

 

Rowing

The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.

 

Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.

 

The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu

 

Rugby Sevens

Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.

 

As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.

 

Shooting

The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out

 

Squash

The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.

 

The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine

 

Triathlon

The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.

 

Weightlifting

The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.

 

Wrestling

The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

 

Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

[Siddhartha Talukdar 263]

Hi everyone, with most of the sports' qualification documents released I did my own qualification simulation for all events including Tripartite places based on latest rankings followed by respective World Championships.

For the simulation Russian and Belarusian athletes have been considered.

Please note Swimming quotas are based on 2025 results. Even though Athletics qualification hasn't been released I assumed it to be same as 2024. Universality places for Athletics and Swimming are indicative only to ensure 1 athlete per gender qualify in the sport.

Here is the sheet.

 

[Roamingrover86 961]

On 2/4/2026 at 9:33 AM, JoshMartini007 said:

 

Here is the link to the updated sheet.

Thanks for the amazing work on the spreadsheet. If my eye's read correctly you expect  to get a quota in Sprint (M) canoeing . This will be historic, if time permits could you elaborate a bit please. What are the chances we get to hold on to the quota place ? Is their a risk of missing out? Thanks! I don't follow canoeing much so had a hard time simulating the qualification scenarios. Thanks!

[Adriano 833]

You skipped dreseage?

[Dnl 726]

On 2/24/2026 at 11:00 AM, Siddhartha Talukdar said:

Hi everyone, with most of the sports' qualification documents released I did my own qualification simulation for all events including Tripartite places based on latest rankings followed by respective World Championships.

For the simulation Russian and Belarusian athletes have been considered.

Please note Swimming quotas are based on 2025 results. Even though Athletics qualification hasn't been released I assumed it to be same as 2024. Universality places for Athletics and Swimming are indicative only to ensure 1 athlete per gender qualify in the sport.

Here is the sheet.

 

Thank you for all the hard work! Just one fix I’ve got While Israel is technically in Asia we compete Under Europe So it might effect you with some changes 

Edited February 25 by Dnl

[Siddhartha Talukdar 263]

9 hours ago, Dnl said:

Thank you for all the hard work! Just one fix I’ve got While Israel is technically in Asia we compete Under Europe So it might effect you with some changes 

I am aware of this, but I segregated the countries with respect to physical geography to see overall how the continent and zone is performing. 

[Dnl 726]

29 minutes ago, Siddhartha Talukdar said:

I am aware of this, but I segregated the countries with respect to physical geography to see overall how the continent and zone is performing. 

Great, just wanted to make sure it’s not affecting Continental Quotas if you take those into account 

[Siddhartha Talukdar 263]

1 minute ago, Dnl said:

Great, just wanted to make sure it’s not affecting Continental Quotas if you take those into account 

Hi, I am aware how the continental quotas are allocated and are unique to different sports. For example, in Football Australia is in Asia and not in Oceania. In Rugby sevens and Football there is separate North America and South America zone while in most other sports its combined Americas. In Wrestling, the Africa and Oceania zone is combined.

However, if there are any mistakes feedback is welcome.

[JoshMartini007 2,839]

2028 Team Size Projection – Feb 2026 Update

 

Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. Only February events were considered for this update. Sorry for the late update, I was quite busy in my personal life. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.

 

Here is the link to the updated sheet.

 

Aquatics (Artistic Swimming, Diving, Water Polo)

World Cup events were held for artistic swimming and diving. is now projected to qualify in artistic swimming over .

 

Diving saw some changes with gains going to (4) (2) and losses going to (2) .

 

Water polo had the European Championships. No changes to Olympic projections.

 

Athletics (Marathon & Race Walking)

The Tokyo Marathon and a gold level race walking tour event in Taicang were held. In the men’s marathon and are now in a qualifying position at the expense of and . On the women’s side; (2) have moved into a qualifying position while are out.

 

In the men’s 20km walk, gained two quotas at the expense of and . For the women’s 20km walk it is who are in position while are out.

 

Badminton

The African and Oceania championships took place along with other minor tournaments. The only change relative to last month was in the men’s doubles where overtook for the final spot

 

Baseball/Softball

The qualification document was released. While a slight change occurred, no changes to the teams qualified were made.

 

Basketball

A set of men’s World Cup qualifiers were held this month. Angola’s loss to Mali is something to consider, but given how close it was I still consider Angola to still be the favourite to qualify. On the other hand, Argentina’s loss to Uruguay is enough to consider a change. After some shuffling around is now on the inside while is out.

 

Cycling (BMX Racing, Road & Track)

Major events held this month include various continental championships.

 

In BMX Racing, gained a quota over in the men’s while is in a qualifying position over for the women.

 

In road cycling, on the men’s side; gained one quota over respectively. On the women’s side; gained one quota over

 

Track cycling see changes in the men’s individual sprint/keirin ( gain over ), men’s Madison ( gain over ), men’s omnium ( and gain over and ), women’s team sprint ( gain over ) and women’s individual sprint/keirin ( x2 over and ).

 

Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)

Several World Cup events were held this month. In Dressage; gained an individual quota over respectively. While in Jumping the team quota saw gains for over inversely, Colombia and Portugal will gain an individual quota, replacing the vacated Mexico and Spain. Additionally there are gains for over

 

Fencing (Foil)

The Turin Grand Prix was held this month among other events. No changes in any of the foil events.

 

Field Hockey

The Pro League continues. No changes in terms of Olympic projection.

 

Golf

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational were the main events held on the men’s side. However, no changes in terms of Olympic projection.

 

Judo

The Paris and Tashkent Grand Slam were major events held.

 

The following nations gained a men’s quota:

The following nations lost a men’s quota:

The following nations gained a women’s quota:

The following nations lost a women’s quota:

 

Lacrosse

The qualification document was released. No changes to the teams qualified were made.

 

Rugby Sevens

The World Series event in Perth, Australia and the second tier event in Nairobi, Kenya were held this month. No changes on the men’s side while on the women’s side there was some shuffling, but ultimately no one fell off. Argentina did make a case by winning the SVNS 2 tournament while Brazil finished 6th which included a 28-17 win for Argentina. While a good start, I don’t think it’s quite enough to make the swab just yet.

 

Shooting

The Asian Rifle/Pistol Championships were held this month. No updates to the qualification projection.

 

Sport Climbing

The Oceania Speed World Championships were held this month. No updates to the projection.

 

Squash

The Windy City Open among other events were held this month. On the men’s side is now in a qualification position over . No changes on the women’s side.

 

Surfing

The qualification document was released. There is now less emphasis on the World Surf League and the priority for the continental qualifiers have changed. This has caused some changes to the projections. For the men; are now in qualification positions causing to drop off. On the women’s side; are in and are out.

 

Table Tennis

The qualification document was released along with the Singapore Smash. Relative to my estimations a few changes occurred. Quota changes include losing men’s quotas. They are replaced by :MDA. On the women’s side, are replaced by .

Edited 28 minutes ago by Sindo