[POLL-TRACK CYCLING] Which country will win the Track Cycling medal tally at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024?

[RussB 189]

12 minutes ago, Faramir said:

big underdogs? Seems a little exaggerated, what time do you think New Zealand can set?

Hard to precise the time's given the importance of the track dynamics etc, but New Zealand set a 4m 10 in Adelaide (R1 of nations cup), which was matched by GBR in Milton (R3). The Italians have gone a 4m 16.6 in Milton [Balsano, Consonni, Fidanza, Guazzini]. Unless there are significant additional changes to be brought into the lineup, that is a huge gap to close in such a timeframe. from 2023 worlds, Italy went a 4m 11.3 (2 secs behind GBR, and 1.1 second behind NZ), so yes NZ for me are the clear favs.

Edited June 21, 2024 by RussB

[Faramir 515]

9 minutes ago, RussB said:

Hard to precise the time's given the importance of the track dynamics etc, but New Zealand set a 4m 10 in Adelaide (R1 of nations cup), which was matched by GBR in Milton (R3). The Italians have gone a 4m 16.6 in Milton [Balsano, Consonni, Fidanza, Guazzini]. Unless there are significant additional changes to be brought into the lineup, that is a huge gap to close in such a timeframe.

uh? you probably only took the times of the final where they disintegrated at last, Italy went 4:10 as well (but way less will be needed in Paris) there's nowhere near that difference between NZL and ITA.

 

And in 2023 Balsamo was missing (+ Paternoster in bad shape), that they will improve on 2022 is quite sure to me.

 

i mean, unless NZL can pull a Germany-in-Tokyo like performance I don't see them being that far.

 

Edited June 21, 2024 by Faramir

[dodge 1,041]

Nations Cup results mean little tbh. World Champs is the better indicator (and a track record of peaking for the big events)

[RussB 189]

I agree the World's is a better indicator, which was added to my post (early sub). Nation's Cup are less instructive but still a useful indicator for form. We have not seen anything from the Italians this year ...yet. Nor am I saying the gap is going to be anywhere near 6 seconds, all I'm saying is that it is difficult based on all the data we have about who should be considered the "favourite", I don't see the argument that it is Italy over NZ.

 

Now GB with Archibald would be a different proposition, I may give the edge to GBR but I think it would be very close. Without Katie, I think we are probably looking at being in the bronze medal match although we thankfully don't have a notable dropoff between our 4th and 5th riders (Morris / Knight).

[RussB 189]

2 minutes ago, RussB said:

I agree the World's is a better indicator, which was added to my post (early sub). Nation's Cup are less instructive but still a useful indicator for form. We have not seen anything from the Italians this year ...yet. Nor am I saying the gap is going to be anywhere near 6 seconds, all I'm saying is that it is difficult based on all the data we have about who should be considered the "favourite", I don't see the argument that it is Italy over NZ. You're right I had only taken the final time and not the qualifying time of 4m 11.4 (much more representative gap). 

 

Now GB with Archibald would be a different proposition, I may give the edge to GBR but I think it would be very close. Without Katie, I think we are probably looking at being in the bronze medal match although we thankfully don't have a notable dropoff between our 4th and 5th riders (Morris / Knight).

 

[Faramir 515]

8 minutes ago, RussB said:

We have not seen anything from the Italians this year ...yet.

https://prod.server.tissottiming.com/file/0003170103020602FFFFFFFFFFFFFF02

 

9 minutes ago, RussB said:

I'm saying is that it is difficult based on all the data we have about who should be considered the "favourite"

yes, so none of the 2 is a "big underdog"

[RussB 189]

Just now, Faramir said:

https://prod.server.tissottiming.com/file/0003170103020602FFFFFFFFFFFFFF02

 

yes, so none of the 2 is a "big underdog"

In what you attach, Italy got beaten by a GBR team with Roberts in for Neah. So yes the big 2 are ahead of Italy as things stand, I really don't think that is controversial as an opinion. Without Katie, GBR in my mind are definitely 3rd.. again which I think is a very reasonable position to take. If i was to be pushed on chances for Gold I'd split it as roughly 70/25/5 (NZ/It/GB), so chances for sure (25%) but to me that makes NZ strong fav.

[phelps 8,695]

16 minutes ago, RussB said:

I agree the World's is a better indicator, which was added to my post (early sub). Nation's Cup are less instructive but still a useful indicator for form. We have not seen anything from the Italians this year ...yet. Nor am I saying the gap is going to be anywhere near 6 seconds, all I'm saying is that it is difficult based on all the data we have about who should be considered the "favourite", I don't see the argument that it is Italy over NZ.

 

Now GB with Archibald would be a different proposition, I may give the edge to GBR but I think it would be very close. Without Katie, I think we are probably looking at being in the bronze medal match although we thankfully don't have a notable dropoff between our 4th and 5th riders (Morris / Knight).

our girls mainly focus on the road races through the season, they only train specifically on the track and peak just for the world champs

 

their results in Winter/Spring don't mean anything compared to what they can do when it truly matters

[RussB 189]

5 minutes ago, phelps said:

our girls mainly focus on the road races through the season, they only train specifically on the track and peak just for the world champs

 

their results in Winter/Spring don't mean anything compared to what they can do when it truly matters

That is fair, all squads should improve to some degree on the focus on the track for Paris (some more than others), and should be a very interesting battle in Paris. I'll certainly hold my hands up if Italy win the gold convincingly. 

[Nish 7]

14 hours ago, phelps said:

our girls mainly focus on the road races through the season, they only train specifically on the track and peak just for the world champs

 

their results in Winter/Spring don't mean anything compared to what they can do when it truly matters

Well GB were gold medal winners and Team NZ were silver at the world champs last year so not sure if that either implies Italy being favs in any sort