2024 Canadian Olympic Swim Trials

[Topicmaster1010 4,181]

2024 Canadian Olympic Swimming Trials: Day 4 Preview

 

Image Source Everybody will be on World Record Watch as Summer McIntosh goes in her signature 400m IM event

 

Women's 400m Individual Medley

 

 

What a stacked event lineup this is.

 

Despite the amount of talent present here, Summer McIntosh is still far and away the clear favourite with an entry time almost 11 seconds faster than Mary-Sophie Harvey. After her mind blowing swim of 4:29.12 at a 2022 trials prep meeting, she has gone under the 4:30 mark 6 times and including every event final from the 2022 World Championships onward. Her resume in this event speaks for herself. 2022 Commonwealth Games Champion in 4:29.01, 2x World Champion (2022 and 2023) in times of  4:32.04 and 4:27.11, and the current world record holder at 4:25.87 set at 2023 Canadian trials. Her most recent result in this event is a 4:29.96 from the 2023 US Open. Expect her to set another blazing fast time and to qualify for Paris with ease.

 

The battle for the 2^nd spot will be fascinating with 3 other swimmers with an OQT and one with an OCT. Mary-Sophie Harvey is next in the rankings. She’s only raced this event at 3 different meets since the start of last year but she’s seeded 2^nd here thanks to the 4:36.79 she swam at the Camille Muffat Meeting this year. That is the fastest time she’s swum since she recorded her PB of 4:36.48 back in 2017. She’s set PBs in other events this year too so it shows she’s in good form overall.

 

Ella Jansen will also be trying to improve upon her PB. After going 4:44.23 at 2023 Canadian Trials, she set a new PB of 4:40.65 at the Ontario Summer Championships before smashing that to 4:37.35 to win a silver medal at World Junior Championships and get under the OQT. She has only raced it once this calendar year at the 2024 World Championships where she swam 4:44.93 to just miss the final. If she has a good headspace, the talent is certainly there to take 2^nd spot at Olympic Trials.

 

Julie Brousseau has also had a very similar progression over the last year. She went 4:45.28 at 2023 Canadian Trials and then dropped that time to 4:42.90 at the Ontario Summer Championships. She would then go on to win bronze at the World Junior Championships in 4:38.45, just 0.08 seconds under the OQT. The highlight of her year might just be the gold medal she won at the Pan American Games where she was just a bit off her PB in 4:43.76. This year, her fastest time is 4:48.23 from the Ontario Winter Championships.

 

Sydney Pickrem also has an entry time under the 4:40 mark. She mostly focuses on 200m races these days and it is possible that she’ll end up scratching this event. She has recent times of 4:39.81 from the 2023 Canadian Trials and 4:44.16 from the San Antonio Pro Swim Series this year. If she does swim it, she’ll be a contender for 2^nd place with a full taper given that her PB sits at 4:32.88.

 

Also having a PB under the OQT is Tessa Cieplucha. Just like 3 years ago, this should be her best shot at making the Olympic Team again. After a down 2023 in which her best time was only 4:42.81, she’s already surpassed that mark twice this year going 4:41.54 to win the Knoxville Pro Swim Series and 4:40.80 at World Championships to record the top time in the heats before being unable to replicate it in the finals. Her best time came at the previous Olympic trials so there’s a good chance she’ll be ready to go under the 4:40 mark again here.

 

Two other swimmers worth mentioning here are Mabel Zavaros and Bailey Andison. Zavaros like some of the other older swimmers has raced it sparingly going 4:42.27 at 2023 Canadian Trials and 4:43.55 at the Canadian Open. Those are very consistent times and she could also be on track to go sub 4:40. Andison meanwhile was swum this event much more and recently at the Central Zone Sectionals, she went her best time since 2020 Olympic Trials in 4:43.04. She could also flirt with the 4:40 mark.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Summer McIntosh

2. Mary-Sophie Harvey

 

Men's 100m Freestyle

 

 

This should be a fun race ahead of us with several contenders vying for individual and relay spots. No idea why they put this the day after the 200m freestyle though. Unfortunately, the absence of Ruslan Gaziev hurts the depth of the field but there should still be plenty of fast times.

 

Josh Liendo is the favorite in this seed and has the fastest entry time by 0.64 seconds. Despite the quick time, last year was a down year for him in the 100m freestyle. After winning bronze at the 2022 World Championships in a time of 47.55, he had a solid trials swim of 47.86 before being unable to break 48 seconds at the 2023 World Championships resulting in him being eliminated in the semifinals. He’s only swum this event once since at going 48.60 at the US Open. However, he is coming off a stellar NCAA season which includes a title in the 100 yard freestyle. He should have no problem winning and getting under the OQT.

 

With the absence of Gaziev, Javier Acevedo is the next fastest seed. Despite not being used in the 4x100m freestyle relay at all in Tokyo, Acevedo has been swimming his fastest times in this event over the last two years and is now a core member of that relay. In 2023, he went a career best 48.50 at Canadian Trials and has been able to produce 4 more sub 49 second clockings after that. He also has constantly delivered great relay splits having had produced a sub 48 split in 5 of 7 relay legs since 2022. He recently produced his best split of 47.51 at the 2024 World Championships.

 

After taking the majority of the 2023 season off, Yuri Kisil is back in the pool looking to qualify for his 3^rd Olympics. He came back at the Rotterdam Qualification meet in December where he posted a 49.00. He hasn’t quite been able to match that time since though with his best time this year being a 49.42 from the Western Canadian Championships. Should he qualify, he would be a massive boost to the Canadian relay as his PB rests at 48.15 along with a PB split of 47.15 from the 2020 Olympics.

 

Edouard Fullum-Huot will be looking to make the senior team in back to back years. Last year, he broke the 50 second mark for the first time in his career at Canadian Trials which qualified him for the 4x100m freestyle relay. He would lower that mark even further at the Pan American Games where he recorded a time of 49.33. He’ll look to break the 49 second mark this year and secure a spot on the relay team again.

 

Despite coming in as the 5^th seed in this event, Finlay Knox could have a lot more to give in this event. I’ve already highlighted how much of an improvement he’s made in some of his other events since his move from to HPC Vancouver. He’s only had one individual swim since then which was a 49.98 at a UBC Winter event. However, he recorded a 47.96 split in the heats of the 4x100m freestyle relay at the 2024 World Championships which was the fastest on the team. His PB still rests at 49.23 while his best time in the Olympic qualification period is 49.50. However, that relay split shows he should be able to produce a time in the mid-48 range.

 

Antoine Sauve has quickly ascended the ranks as one of the top sprint freestyle prospects in the nation. He recently set a PB of 49.51 at the Eastern Canadian Championships this year. That time would have missed 4^th place by 0.01 at 2023 Trials. He also had a notable 48.73 split at the 2023 World Junior Championships to lead the Canadian team to a bronze medal. The potential is definitely there and if he has another big drop, he could produce a sub 49 second time and possibly find himself on this relay.

 

The most interesting name comes all the way at the #44 seed which is Ilya Kharun. With Gaziev out, it opens up the door for someone to step up and he may very well be that guy. Kharun has only recorded six results in this event in long course with his best time coming at 51.61 at a 2023 TYR Pro Swim Series meet. However, he has significantly improved since that time and has featured on the ASU 4x100m yard freestyle relays. His personal best in short course yards is 42.18 from this February which, according to the swimswam converter, translates to a 48.41 long course meter time which would put him right near the top.

 

Also can’t forget about Stephen Calkins. Calkins has a PB under 49 seconds (48.96) set at the 2022 Commonwealth Games but has only broken 49.5 seconds on one other occasion.

 

Filip Senc-Samardzic and Paul Dardis are other youngsters to keep an eye on and they’ll be looking to improve on their PBs set this year.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Josh Liendo (individual + relay)

2. Javier Acevedo (relay only)

3. Ilya Kharun (relay only)

4. Yuri Kisil (relay only)

5. Finlay Knox (relay only)

 

Women's 200m Backstroke

 

 

Horrible scheduling to have this the day after the 100m backstroke. If Summer McIntosh were to swim this event, there is a very strong chance she would win this race. But since it’s only her 7^th best event, she won’t be racing this. With the absence of McIntosh and Taylor Ruck, this race could potentially be wide open for qualification.

 

The winner should still be pretty clear though. Kylie Masse has the fastest entry time in this event by almost 3 seconds. Just like in the 100m backstroke, this event has been a bit of a struggle for her since the Tokyo Olympics. She’s failed to break the 2:07 mark since those games with her best time a 2:07.13 at 2023 Canadian Trials. She placed 5^th at the 2023 World Championships in 2:07.52 marking back to back years where she failed to medal in this event. However, she’s shown signs of rounding back into form this year posting a time of 2:08.44 at the Spanish Winter Championships which is faster than she was at that point of time in 2023. Even in her “poor races”, Masse still easily clears the OQT and we should expect her to comfortably win this race.

 

Ingrid Wilm comes in with the next fastest time. Known more for her sprint backstroke ability, she has improved in this discipline setting a new PB of 2:10.19 at 2023 Canadian Trials, under the OQT. However, since that swim, her best has only been 2:11.88 at the 2024 World Aquatics Championships where she was knocked out in the semifinals. She also had a showing of 2:12.67 to place 19^th in the 2023 World Championships. Should she be on form, there’s a good chance she’ll secure a qualification berth, but if not, that could potentially open the door for another swimmer.

 

Enter the two teenagers from Toronto HPC. After setting a PB of 2:14.24 at 2023 Canadian trials, Delia Lloyd reset her PB to 2:13.30 at the Ontario Summer Championships in July and then to 2:12.24 at the Canadian Championships in August. She would set her current PB of 2:11.74 at the Knoxville TYR Pro Swim Series in January this year. She also had a good in season swim at the Canadian Open to win the event with her second fastest time of her career in 2:11.95. Given that the OQT is 2:10.39, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that she could drop her time down to that.

 

Placing 2^nd at the Canadian Open was Lloyd’s teammate, Madison Kryger. She went 2:15.81 at the 2023 Canadian Trials before improving by a second to 2:14.80 at the Mel Zajac Meet. She would drop almost another full second two just over a month later at the Canadian Championships to bring her PB to 2:13.85. Then at the Canadian Open this year, she reset her PB to 2:13.04 in the heats before smashing that mark to produce 2:11.96 in the final. With another good taper for trials, it’s very possible she could reach that 2:10.39 as well.

 

After an injury plagued 2023 year, Regan Rathwell is back. She has the 2^nd fastest PB in the field from a 2:09.54 she swam at the 2022 Mare Nostrum which is under the OQT. She’s swam long course once this year going 2:12.08 at the San Antonio TYR Pro Swim Series. That’s a solid showing to show that she’s rounding back into form.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Kylie Masse

2. Madison Kryger

 

With my craziest prediction of the series so far, I’m going to predict Madison Kryger to drop another monster PB to qualify for her first Olympics at the age of 15.

 

Men's 800m Freestyle

 

 

Don’t really have much to say here.

 

Eric Brown is the clear favourite in this race having an entry time almost 7 seconds ahead of Alex Axon. Considering he’s won every distance race this decade so far, it’s safe to say he’ll do so again. Brown’s time is actually in range of the consideration time but AQUA recently issued a memo to all national federations saying there’s a good chance that OCT athletes will be invited so he’ll probably need an OQT. In terms of his progression, he set a PB of 7:56.96 from 2023 Canadian Trials. He’s then only swum this at competition twice going 8:01.41 at the 2023 World Championships and 8:01.35 at the US Open. The 2023 US Open Swim was 3 seconds faster than he was at the 2022 edition so that could bode well for him here.

 

Alexander Axon comes in with the second fastest entry time. His fastest two times of his career have both been swum at Canadian trials with him going 8:02.24 in 2022 and 8:03.05 in 2023. He recently had a big breakthrough in the 400m freestyle going 3:49.33 to hack almost two seconds under his old PB. He didn’t swim the 800m freestyle at that event so if has a similar progression here, he’s on track to have his first swim under 8 minutes.

 

Timothe Barbeau is the youngest of the top 3 entries which naturally means he has the most potential to drop big time. He swam his PB of 8:04.72 at the 2023 World Junior Championships to place 10^th. After an 8:14.95 showing at the Pan American Games, he went 8:13.82 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in March before going 8:06.73 at the Canadian Open. He should be on track to drop another PB at Olympic Trials.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

None

 

Edited May 10 by Topicmaster1010

[Topicmaster1010 4,181]

2024 Canadian Olympic Swimming Trials: Day 5 Preview

Image Source Fresh off an NCAA title, Ilya Kharun to qualify in the 200m butterfly, an event he seeks redemption in after finishing 4th at the 2023 World Champs

 

 

Women's 100m Freestyle

 

 

2023 was undoubtedly the worst year in this event for Canada since the beginning of the Oleksiak/Ruck era. However, there’s reason to believe that this year will be better with 5 Canadian women already under the time it took to win last years trials.

 

Maggie MacNeil was the most consistent women in this event last year by far. Known more for her butterfly, she took a big step in this event. After winning 2023 trials in a mediocre 54.58, she set a PB of 53.77 leading off the women’s 4x100m freestyle relay at the heats of the 2023 World Championships. Then she would set a new PB of 53.64 to win gold at the Pan American Games to win gold and just miss the OQT by 0.03. She also was a monster on the relays going 53.07 and 53.14 in her two major competitions. She’s well on track to finally break the OQT at Olympic Trials.

 

While it’s unlikely that she’ll swim this event individually, Summer McIntosh will look to add the 4x100m freestyle relay to her event lineup. Earlier this year, she won the Canadian Open in 53.90 to smash her old PB of 54.39 set at the TYR Pro Swim Series in March 2023. Her 3^rd fastest time of her career also came this year back at the Orlando Sectionals where she swam 54.48. She’s already been used regularly on this relay in international competitions. She’s had splits of 53.48 at the 2023 World Championships and 53.33 at the 2022 Commonwealth Games in her career, both of which came on the same day as a 400m distance swim.

 

Like with many of her other events, Mary-Sophie Harvey’s recent results in the 100m freestyle have been nothing short of outstanding. Her 5 best times of her career have all come this year with the best being a 54.26 at the Camille Muffat Meeting. She also swam 54.27 at the Canadian Open. The signs for a breakout were already there last year when she set her then personal best of 54.73 at the 2023 US Open. She also has shown great form on relays as well most notably leading the women’s medley relay to gold at the 2023 Pan American Games with a 53.82 split.

 

What form of Penny Oleksiak will show up at these trials?  We all know that she’s been nothing short of brilliant in this event in her career especially in Olympic years. 52.70 in a World Junior Record to win gold in 2016 followed by a 4^th place finish in 2021 with an even faster time of 52.59. Even in 2022, she was still elite finishing 4^th in 52.98. However, a meniscus tear setback resulted in her only having one result in 2023 where she went 56.08 at the Mare Nostrum. She’s been much improved this year with. In her first meet back from a re-tear, she went a time of 55.01 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in March. She would improve on that by almost 0.6 seconds at the Canadian Open to finish 4^th in 54.43. If that trajectory continues, she could be around a 53.8 time at Trials. It would be an understatement to say that having Penny back in form would be a significant boost to the relays.

 

Speaking of athletes coming back from injury, Taylor Ruck is the next seed in this event. Ruck had a great showing at the 2024 World Championships. She only raced the 100m freestyle on the relays but in those races, she was fantastic with splits of 53.26 on the 4x100m freestyle relay and 52.96 on the 4x100m medey relay, both of which helped lead her team to bronze medals. Notably the 52.96 split was her fastest 2^nd fastest split in the 2020s. She hasn’t raced the 100m freestyle individually much since her return from injury with her best time being 54.44 from the Westmont Pro Swim Series and a couple of mid 55 second clockings from the other stops. However, the 52.96 split shows that she is capable of reaching the 53.61 OQT.

 

Sarah Fournier came out of nowhere last year to throw herself into relay contention. She was only 9^th at the 2023 Canadian trials in 55.92. However, she clocked a new PB of 54.74 at the Quebec Chamionships before in June before lowering that to 54.58 at the Canadian Championships in August. That led her to being selected for the 2024 World Championship team. Unfortunately, she wasn’t quite as impressive there in going 56.39 in the heats of the individual 100m freestyle failing to make it out of the heats while also splitting 55.12 on the relay. Most recently, she went 55.60 at the Eastern Canadian Championships. If she can regain her mid 2023 form, she’ll put herself in relay contention.

 

After being on the silver medal winning relay team in Tokyo, Rebecca Smith will look to put herself on the relay again. She already looks to be in better form this year with a good showing at the 2024 World Championships. There she lead off the 4x100m freestyle relay team in 54.88 in prelims before going slightly slower in 54.93. She didn’t record any times under 55 seconds in 2023 so this is encouraging from her. Most recently, she went 55.48 and 55.63 at the Canadian Open. She’ll likely need to drop some more time if she wants to throw herself into relay contention.

 

Katerine Savard is also looking to be apart of another relay team. Her entry time and best time during the qualification period comes from a 54.98 time she swam at the Quebec Championships n June 2023. That’s her only time under the 55 second mark with her best time in 2024 coming at the TYR Pro Swim Series in March where she went 55.21. She most recently went 55.43 at the Eastern Canadian Championships. She has delivered some solid relay splits in recent years going 54.47 at the 2023 World Aquatics Championships and 54.48 at the 2024 World Aquatics Championships.

 

Brooklyn Douthwright and Emma O’Croinin will also be looking to build off of their PBs that they set at last year’s Canadian Trials. Julie Brousseau, Ella Jansen, and Delia Lloyd just missed the top 10 seeds. They’re all really talented teenagers but they all have better events and likely won’t factor into this race.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Taylor Ruck (Individual + Relay)

2. Maggie Mac Neil (Individual + Relay)

3. Penny Oleksiak (Relay only)

4. Summer McIntosh (Relay only)

5. Mary-Sophie Harvey (Relay only)

6. Rebecca Smith (Relay only)

 

Yes, this means that I sadly don’t have Katerine Savard making the Olympic team, but I would love to be proven wrong.

 

Men's 200m Backstroke

 

 

This is potentially another event that’s wide open for the taking.

 

To the surprise of some people, Hugh McNeill comes in as the top seed. Not many people expected him to win this event last year at trials, but in the finals, he had the swim of his life to just qualify for World Championships in a time of 1:58.07. He would then drop that even further at World Championships to win his heat in 1:57.73, just 0.23 seconds off of the OQT. He won the U-SPORTS title this year in this event in 2:00.21. He doesn’t have a time from March 2023 so it’s hard to gage where he’s at exactly in terms of his time progression but he should be in Olympic contention.

 

Raben Dommann comes in as the 2^nd seed. He broke the 2:00 barrier for the first time last year when he swum 1:59.73. He would take that down to 1:59.10 at the Canadian Championships. That performance would help him get an invite to the 2024 World Championships where he qualified for the semifinals in a time of 1:59.10. He most recently went 2:05.04 at the US Open.

 

Tristan Jankovics has also made some nice progress in this event with his top 14 best times all coming since April of 2023. Within one year, he improved from 2:05.16 to 1:59.93, almost a 6 second drop. His best time comes from a 1:59.11 swim at 2023 Canadian Championships. His one long course result this year comes from the Canadian Open where he went 1:59.91 in the final to place 2^nd.

 

Ethan Ekk is the youngest of the top 10 seeds. He hasn’t raced long course much in his young career but the Canadian Open marked the first time he’s been under 2:00 winning the race in 1:59.22. His Previous best was 2:00.84 at the Futures Championships in July 2023.

 

Aiden Norman will be another youngster to watch. Last year was a breakout year for him going 1:59.35 at 2023 Canadian Trials to finish in 2^nd behind Hugh McNeill. It was the first time he went under the 2 minute barrier. Unfortunately, he wasn’t quite able to replicate that performance at the World Junior Championships finishing 4^th in 2:00.75. He had a good showing recently at the Fran Crippen Memorial meet though going 1:59.74 to place 3^rd. Might another big time drop be in order?

 

Also in the field is Blake Tierney. His backstroke has been improving but he hasn’t been under 2:00 in this discipline in the qualification period. He’ll be more of a factor in the 100m discipline.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

None

 

It’s possible one of the guys above could get the OQT but I haven’t seen as much of a trajectory in this event this year from any of the guys that I would've hoped for.

 

 

Women's 200m Breaststroke

 

 

Although not as exciting of a race as the 100m breaststroke on paper, this should still be a fun race to watch. On paper, there’s a clear top 2 in this race but there’s a few women capable of pulling an upset.

 

Sydney Pickrem comes in as the top seed. Pickrem is currently in the middle of a renaissance season. At 26 years old, she’s been setting/nearing PB’s in many of her events including this one. In October, she won the gold medal at the Pan American Games in 2:23.39 to get herself under the OQT. This year, she won the bronze medal at the 2024 World Championships going 2:22.94, her fastest time since 2019. She was 2:24.63 at Canadian Trials last year so we can expect her to be much quicker this time around.

 

Another veteran of the field, Kelsey Wog, comes in as the 2^nd seed. Wog has also been in good form as of late setting a new short course PB at a meet in November. She placed 2^nd at Canadian Trials last year in a decent time of 2:25.26. She was faster at World Championships qualifying for the finals in a time of 2:24.16, but then was slower in the final. Finally she topped it off with a 2^nd place finish at the Pan American Games with a time of 2:23.49, the 4^th fastest time of her career (quickest since 2021), and under the OQT. She has two notable results this year going 2:24.27 at the Western Canadian Championships and 2:24.91 at the Canadian Open. She’s set herself up nicely to qualify in this event again.

 

Trying to spoil the party will be the 18 year old Alexanne Lepage. Like in the 100m breaststroke, she had a massive breakthrough last year. She didn’t swim this at Canadian Trials but went 2:30.74 at the Mel Zajac meet in June. After recording a 2:31.43 at Canadian Championships, she dropped over 3 seconds in the prelims at World Juniors to qualify for the final in first. It was in that final that she dropped almost another 3 full seconds to win her 2^nd gold medal of the championships. She recently had a good showing at the U-SPORTS championships winning this event in a time of 2:27.92. She could very well challenge for a spot on the Olympic team.

 

It'll be interesting to watch how Avery Wiseman does here. Her best time remains at the 2:26.46 she swam at the 2023 Canadian Trials. She’s had a great NCAA season placing 5^th in the 200 yard breaststroke at the SEC Championships so a time drop could be imminent. Nina Kucheran will also be trying to improve on her 2:26.90 PB she set last year also at Canadian Trials.

 

Other notable swimmers include Sophie Angus with an entry time of 2:27.71 and Shona Branton at 2:31.12. Both are more sprint focused breaststrokers and likely won’t have an impact in this race.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Sydney Pickrem

2. Kelsey Wog

 

This means that I have Lepage sadly missing out on the Olympic team.

 

Men's 200m Butterfly

 

 

Like a few other races here, this figures to be a one man race. However, the battle for second spot and a potential second qualifier could be interesting.

 

Ilya Kharun is the top seed here by a good with the top seed by over 4 seconds. A junior star when he was younger, he exploded onto the scene in this event in long course last year. He first smashed the Canadian record and his own PB of 1:56.66 by winning the Fort Lauderdale TYR Pro Swim Series in 1:54.49. He would just miss the Canadian record a few weeks later at Canadian Trials winning comfortably in 1:54.74 to qualify for his first World Championships. There, he would rebreak the Canadian record two more times qualifying for the finals in 1:54.28 and just missing the podium in 4^th in a time of 1:53.82. He’s had a wonderful season so far going a time of 1:54.66 at the US Open in December and at the NCAA Championships, won the 200 yard butterfly title, an event that he broke the NCAA earlier in the season as a freshmen. He was a little bit off form at the recent TYR Pro Swim Series but it could’ve been just due to heavy training. We would expect him to easily get under the OQT and potentially challenge the Canadian Record.

 

Last year, 1:59.54 was the time of the 2^nd place finisher and since then, 3 men besides Kharun have gone under that mark. Leading the way is Benjamin Loewen. He tied for 4^th at 2023 trials but had a monster swim at the Canadian Championships to record his first sub 2:00 clocking of 1:57.98. However, that remains the only time he’s gone under that barrier with his best result since being 2:00.65 from the Canadian Open.

 

A pair of juniors had good showings last year at the World Junior Championships. Tying with Loewen at 2023 trials was Kevin Zhang. In the heats of the World Juniors, he reset his PB to 1:59.57 before going even better in the final with a 1:58.97 to 7^th. He’s been sub 2 minutes one other time going 1:59.30 at the Pan American Games to place 5^th. He most recently went 2:00.18 at the Canadian Open.

 

At those same World Junior Championships, Bill Dongfang also had a great showing improving on his trials time of 2:00.92 to place 5^th in the final in 1:58.44. Prior to that, he had gone 1:58.71 in the heats. That time was enough to place him in the top 10 junior swimmers of 2023. He’s been a bit slower this year however, going 2:02.04 at the recent Canadian Open.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Ilya Kharun

[Josh 10,516]

I don’t think MacNeil will swim the women’s 100m freestyle individually, even if she reaches the OQT.

[Topicmaster1010 4,181]

28 minutes ago, Josh said:

I don’t think MacNeil will swim the women’s 100m freestyle individually, even if she reaches the OQT.

Yeaaah, you're probably right.

 

Hopefully Penny can get down to that time then.

[Topicmaster1010 4,181]

2024 Canadian Olympic Swimming Trials: Day 6 Preview

Image Source 2024 World Champion Finlay Knox goes in his signature event

 

 

 

Women's 200m Butterfly

 

Just like in the men’s 200m butterfly, this will be one woman vs. the clock. And just like the men’s 200m butterfly, the battle for 2^nd place and a potential OQT will be interesting to watch.

 

Summer McIntosh is the 1^st seed by almost a whopping 7 seconds. After breaking the World Junior record to win gold at the 2022 World Championships in 2:05.20, she would take it to another level in 2023 improving on her WJR with every competition. First, she lowered it to 2:05.05 at the TYR Pro Swim Series before going below the 2:05 barrier for the first time at Canadian Trials to win in 2:04.70. She would save her best for the World Championships final where she would claim her first gold medal of the championships in the now WJR of 2:04.06. This year, she’s only swum this event once in long course but it was an excellent January swim for her going 2:05.73 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in Knoxville. Expect her to get under the OQT with ease and we’ll be watching whether or not she can go under the 2:04 barrier.

 

Could Katie Forrester get under the OQT? She set a 1.5 second PB at the 2023 Canadian Trials placing 2^nd in 2:10.99. While she hasn’t bettered that time since, she’s been consistent for the most part with times of 2:11.50 at the Canadian Championships, 2:12.90 at the Pan American Games and most recently 2:12.96 at the San Antonio Pro Swim Series. The opportunity is there to challenge the 2:10 barrier this year.

 

Could Ella Jansen get under the OQT? She’s a bit of an enigma in this event. She set her best time of 2:10.00 at an trials prep event in March 2022 when she was still 16 years old. However, she hasn’t come close to that mark since with her next best time being a 2:11.10 from 2022 Junior Pan Pacs and her best time from 2023 being a 2:11.39 from the Ontario Summer Championships. Unfortunately, she hasn’t quite been able to do the job in the biggest events. Notably at the recent 2024 World Championships, she went out really fast before fading during the final 50m to miss the semifinals in 2:14.77. The talent is certainly there however and these trials could be the time for her to take that next step.

 

Could Clare Watson get under the OQT? She has the 2^nd fastest time among Canadians this season. She went 2:14.80 at 2023 Canadian Trials and then lowered that time again to 2:14.37 at the Mel Zajac Meet. Then she unleashed a monster PB of 2:11.64 at the World Juniors to qualify for the finals. She would ultimately finish 8^th with a slightly slower time of 2:12.67. She has one long course result from this year going 2:13.30 at a Northwest Sectionals meet. That’s roughly one second faster than she was at that point in 2023 so another big drop could be in order.

 

And what about Mabel Zavaros and Kamryn Cannings? Zavaros has the 2^nd fastest PB in the field at 2:08.71 which is just slower than the OQT by 0.28 seconds. That was set all the way back in 2018 though. She hasn’t breached the 2:10 mark since 2018 with her best time of the qualification period coming at 2:11.71 at 2023 Canadian Trials (although she has a 2:11.33 from the Atlanta Classic that’s not in the Swimming Canada data base). Cannings took a chunk off her PB every time she swam the event in 2023 going 2:13.33 at the Fort Lauderdale TYR Pro Swim Series, 2:12.75 at the Canadian Trials and 2:11.84 at the Canadian Championships. Her one result in 2024 is a 2:18.11 at the San Antonio Pro Swim Series. It’s hard to tell whether she was off form or just in heavy training.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Summer McIntosh

 

Men's 200m Individual Medley

 

 

The 200 IM has seen some growing depth in recent years and that’ll be on full display here.

 

Leading the way is Finlay Knox. Knox started his 2023 campaign by rebreaking his own Canadian record at Canadian Trials in a time of 1:57.26. That would be the best time he would put down that year though. He had some solid showings at the 2023 World Championship with his time of 1:58.23 not good enough to make the finals. He also won Pan American Games gold in 1:58.74. However, his real breakthrough came this year at the 2024 World Championships where he stunned the world class field to win gold and produce a new lifetime best of 1:56.64. He is in arguably the best form of his life right now and should have another good swim at Canadian Trials.

 

Also in great form is Tristan Jankovics. Although he didn’t swim this event at trials last year, his 7 best times of his career have all come since July 2023. After a breakthrough swim of 2:00.58 at the TYR Pro Championships in July, he went 2:00.63 at the Canadian Championships but then had another monster drop to post 1:59.05 at an Ohio State Invitational. That time would’ve been enough to qualify him for any previous Olympics but not this years. He recently had a solid in season result of 2:00.63 at the Canadian Open. Another big time drop could be in store.

 

Lorne Wigginton will also be one to watch here. The 18 year old was able to drop 2 seconds off his PB during 2023. First he dropped two seconds from 2:03.70 at 2022 Junior Pan Pacs to 2:01.43 at 2023 Canadian Trials. He would then drop that all the way to 1:59.44 at the World Junior Championships to win bronze in the event. This year, he swam the 2^nd and 3^rd best performances of his young career going 2:00.63 in the heats and then 2:00.32 in the semifinals. Like Jankovics, he’s on track to drop more time.

 

Although he’s more suited to the 400m IM, Collyn Gagne will still be a factor in this race. His best result of 2023 came at Canadian Trials where he went 2:00.62 to place 3^rd in the final. That was just off his 2022 trials swim of 2:00.37. He also went 2:00.79 at the Pan American Games to just miss the podium in 4^th place.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Finlay Knox

 

The OQT is very challenging and I don't see any of the other guys ready to challenge that time yet.

 

Men's 50m Freestyle

 

 

Josh Liendo enters this race as the man to beat. The 21 year won 3 NCAA titles this year including the 50 yard freestyle. Although he wasn’t as fast in 2023 as he was in 2022 when he broke the Canadian record, he still produced world class times. He started the year by easily winning the 2023 Canadian trials with a time of 21.80. Then at World Championships, he produced 21.97 in the heats and then 21.88 in the semifinals to just qualify for the final before ultimately scratching and opting to focus on the 100m butterfly race instead. His most recent long course result was a 21.90 at the 2023 US Open. The 21.96 OQT should be no problem for him.

 

Yuri Kisil will also be trying to get the OQT here. The 28 year old has a PB of 22.02 (short of the OQT by 0.06 seconds) but has looked in great form so far in this event this year. He went 22.83 in his first competition back before lowering that to 22.14 at the Rotterdam Qualification Meet in December. He’s had a few in season swims competitions  domestically this year going 22.73, 22.63, 22.35 and 22.49. The most recent of which is the Canadian Open. With someone to chase and a full taper, he’ll have a chance to challenge the OQT.

 

It'll be interesting to see if Edouard Fullum-Huot can lower his entry time or not. Last year, he broke through at Canadian Trials placing in 2^nd behind Josh Liendo in a time of 22.26. He also went 22.45 at the Pan American Games.

 

Liam Weaver could be in for a time drop. He swam his personal best at the Canadian Championships last year in a result of 22.63. In March, he swam 22.72 at the U SPORTS Championships which is right where he was around last time.

 

Ilya Kharun feels like he should be seeded much higher. He finished 13^th in the 50 yard free at NCAA Championships. His career best in yards is 18.82 which according to the swimswam time converter is roughly about 21.69. That’s probably a bit of an optimistic conversion but it shows that the OQT could be within striking distance. Kharun has swam this event in long course once going 22.66 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in San Antonio.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Josh Liendo

2. Ilya Kharun

 

Given his talent level and how good he was in this discipline in short course, I think Kharun will produce a big long course PB.

 

Women's 800m Freestyle

 

 

With Summer McIntosh not present, it leaves a hole in this race as the rest of the entry times are well short of the OQT.

 

Just like in the 1500m freestyle, Emma Finlin comes in as the top seed. However, the percentage gap is much smaller being less than 2 seconds ahead of the next fastest swimmer compared to 30 seconds in the 1500m. Although she didn’t swim this race at 2023 Canadian trials, she had an 800m split of 8:38.91 which had already undercut her previous PB of 8:42.54. She then produced an 8:36.47 time at the 2023 World Championships to finish in 18^th place. It’s worth noting that her 800m split in her 1500m race was 8:38.47 which shows that she could have the potential to go much faster.

 

Mabel Zavaros has raced this event sparingly in recent years. However, the last time she did swim this event, she set a new PB going 8:38.17 to win 2023 Canadian Trials in Finlin’s absence. She was forced to pull out due to injury so we have no idea if she would have had another time drop or not. However, given her event progression in recent years, she would be on track to drop another 1 or two seconds in this event. It’s worth noting that she’s entered in both the 200m butterfly and 800m freestyle this session. I’m not sure which one she’ll opt for but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

 

Ella Cosgrove will be one to watch for in the future. After going 8:47.72 at Canadian Trials last year (which was her first long course swim in this event), the 2007 born teenager lowered that mark to 8:43.93 at the US Junior Championships before lowering it again at the World Junior Championships to finish in 7^th. She was selected to the 2024 World Championship team where she had a solid time of 8:43.33.

 

Ella Jansen is also entered in this event. She recently set a PB of 8:40.14 at the 2023 US Open to just miss the 8:40 barrier. However, given that she is entered in both the 200m butterfly and the 800m freestyle this session, I feel like she’ll scratch this final as she has a much better chance of qualifying in the former.

 

Sienna Angove, Julia Strojnowska and Julie Brousseau (maybe) will also look to improve on their PBs set this season.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

None

 

[Topicmaster1010 4,181]

2024 Canadian Olympic Swimming Trials: Day 7 Preview

Image Source Josh Liendo leads a stacked field in the men's 100m butterfly

 

This is the final day of Canadian Olympic Trials but it should still bring nothing short of great races.

 

Women's 50m Freestyle

 

 

This looks to a race between Taylor Ruck and the clock.

 

Taylor Ruck is by far the fastest seed in the field. Usually more known as a 100/200m freestyler in her career, Ruck has seemed to transition more to the 50/100m freestyle distances this year. Her only time racing this was at the Budapest World Cup in October where she went times of 25.17 and 25.18. However, this year, she’s raced it at the 2024 World Championships and all of the TYR Pro Swim Series stops. At the World Championships, she was very impressive improving her time each round: 24.84 in heats, 24.72 in the semis, and then 24.50 in the final to place 5^th and get under the OQT. The 24.50 marks her 3^rd fastest time of her career and her fastest time outside of 2018. Her fastest time in the TYR Pro Swim Series events is only 25.10 but it’s possible she wasn’t tapered for those.

 

The only other swimmer remotely in the same ballpark as Ruck in the qualification period is Sarah Fournier. Somehow after finishing 10^th at Canadian Trials in 26.08, she improved her time by over half a second to go 25.50 at the Mission Viejo Pro Swim Series less than two months later. She would cap off her year with her current entry time of 25.24 swam at the Canadian Championships in August. This year, her best time has come at the Eastern Canadian Championships where she went 25.66. She’ll be on track to improve her performance from last years trials.

 

Seeded all the way down in 29^th is Penny Oleksiak. Oleksiak has a PB of 25.38 from 2018. Her seed time is from a 26.22 that she swam at the TYR Pro Swim Series in Westmont, her first competition back. If she does end up swimming this event, she could make some noise.

 

Delia Lloyd and Sienna Angove will be ones to watch in the future. In particular, it’s impressive that Lloyd is also seeded in the top 10 in the backstroke events and Angove seeded in the top 10 in the distance freestyles and IM events. Both of them have set their PBs this year so look on them to improve on those.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Taylor Ruck

 

Men's 100m Butterfly

 

 

Aside from the 100m freestyle, this could very well be the top men’s race at trials with arguably the top 3 male swimmers in Canada the top 3 seeds in this event.

 

Josh Liendo will be the favorite here. After a big breakthrough in 2022 where he broke the 51 second mark for the first time in his career and won a bronze medal, Liendo took it to the next level in 2023. He first went 50.78 to lower his Canadian record in prelims before delivering an amazing 50.36 to rank as the #5 100m butterflyer of all time (now #7 all time). He would break that record again going 50.34 at the World Championships to win silver. With athletes from the world delivering world class times in this event this early in the season, Liendo should be motivated to take that Canadian Record down even further this year. He’s looking in good form having won 3 NCAA titles including the 100 yard butterfly. His most recent time was 51.42 at the 2023 US Open Championships.

 

Looking to challenge Liendo will be Ilya Kharun. Kharun is currently the #1 ranked Canadian this season with his 51.32 from the US Open.  He had a big long course breakthrough in 2023 going under the 52 second mark for the first time at the Fort Lauderdale TYR Pro Swim Series in March at 51.54. He lowered his PB a few weeks later at 51.45 to place 2^nd to Liendo. Then finally, he went 51.22 at World Championships to just miss qualifying for the final. Kharun has already been in excellent form this year having a great freshman season for ASU. He won the PAC 12 title in the 100 yard fly and finished 5^th at the NCAA Championships. His most recent performance was a 51.97 from the San Antonio TYR Pro Swim Series in April.

 

Looking to spoil the party will be Finlay Knox. Although his PB remains from 2022, he’s already set PBs this year in 5 events this year and he’ll be looking to do the same in arguably his 2^nd best event. His best time of 2023 was 52.11 at the Canadian Trials. He’s already improved on that this year at the 2024 World Championships going 52.04 in heats and 52.07 in the semis where he would miss the final. Those were the 2^nd and 3^rd fastest times of his career just off his 51.86 PB. At the Canadian Open, he went 52.11. He’s on the right track to set a new PB.

 

If there is a dark horse in this race, it’s Filip Senc-Samardzic. He was ranked in the top 10 junior swimmers in this event last year thanks to his 52.85 time from the World Juniors where he would place 5^th. Prior to that, he was 53.39 at Canadian Trials and then 53.29 at the Canadian Championships. He recently went 52.96 at the San Antonio TYR Pro Swim Series in April. That marks his best time outside of the World Junior Championships and is faster than what he went in April last year so we can expect another time drop at Olympic Trials.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Josh Liendo

2. Ilya Kharun

 

Women's 200m Individual Medley

 

 

Well if you thought the 400m IM field was stacked, wait until you see this field. This event features 4 women and 8 of the top 20 fastest 200 IMers all time in Canada.

 

As is tradition, Summer McIntosh comes in with the fastest seed. The 200 IM is the newest event of her core 5 events. She didn’t swim this at all at 2022 Trials and didn’t take it seriously until after that. After going 2:13.55 at her first event at an Etobicoke meet, she slowly began figuring out how to race this going as fast as 2:10.75 at the 2022 Mare Nostrum. She would win gold at the 2022 Commonwealth games in 2:08.70 and then set the World Junior record again to 2:08.08 at the 2023 TYR Pro Swim Series in Fort Lauderdale. Finally, she smashed that mark again at Canadian Trials to go 2:06.89. She’s swam the 200m IM twice this year going 2:07.16 at the Knoxville TYR Pro Swim Series and 2:08.19 at the Canadian Open, both of which are great in season times. She’ll look to go under the 2:07 barrier again this week.

 

There are two main contenders for 2^nd place. The first of which is Sydney Pickrem. Pickrem has had a lot of success in this event earlier in her career with a silver medal at 2018 Pan Pacs and a bronze medal at the 2019 World Championships. After a bit of a slump, she’s back and better than ever it seems like. She started her 2023 year going 2:08.61 at Canadian Trials, tying her PB from back in 2019. She would get close to that again at the AP Race going 2:08.89. After a mental health break, she returned to racing at the World Cup in October going 2:09.67 and then won Pan American Games gold in a time of 2:09.04. She’s been even better this year setting a new PB of 2:08.56 at the 2024 World Championships in a silver medal performance. Her most recent showing was a 2:11.37 at the San Antonio TYR Pro Swim Series. She looks ready to lower her PB again at trials.

 

Her biggest challenger will be the also rapidly improving Mary-Sophie Harvey. After many years where her PB stalled at 2:11.96 from 2016, Harvey finally took the next step to become a world class swimmer in this event in 2022. Her 2:10.98 from 2022 trials qualified her for her first individual swim at a world Championships where she would end up making the final. She would go as fast as 2:10.22. She went even faster in 2023 swimming 2:10.76 at Canadian Trials before improving her PB to 2:09.65 at World Championships. She seems primed to take another step this year after setting PBs in other events. Her best time this year is 2:10.18 from the Canadian Open in the heats before scratching the final. Given that it was a heat swim, we can expect her to go much faster here.

 

This field has no shortage of youngsters. Ashley McMillan comes in as the next seed. McMillan made some noise at the 2022 trials going 2:12.52 and capped off her year with a silver medal at Junior Pan Pacs. At 2023 Canadian Trials, she wasn’t quite able to replicate her swim from the previous year going 2:14.54. However, she would have a breakthrough performance at the Canadian Championships smashing her PB by roughly 0.8 seconds to win the event in 2:11.44, her first time under the OQT. She had a decent showing at the 2024 World Championships making the event final and going as fast as 2:12.23.

 

Ella Jansen will be looking to build momentum off of her recent PB in this event. She started off her 2023 year with swimming a then 2:13.74 PB at Canadian Trials. Unfortunately she wasn’t able to replicate that performance for the rest of the year. She had the 2^nd fastest prelim time of 2:14.11 but was unable to replicate that in the final coming off the back of a 400m freestyle on the same day. Her one performance this year came in the Canadian Open where she would place 3^rd behind McIntosh and McMillan in a time of 2:12.97. That bodes well for the 18 year old heading into Olympic Trials.

 

Like Jansen, Julie Brousseau would also set a PB at 2023 Canadian Trials. Her swim of 2:13.66 beat her previous PB by roughly 1.3 seconds. At the World Junior Championships, she had to deal with the same 400m freestyle/200m IM double that Jansen had. However, Brousseau was able to navigate that successfully placing 3^rd in the final with a time of 2:13.74, just 0.08 seconds off her PB. You would think that if it were not for that double, she could’ve swam much faster. This year, her best time is a 2:15.49 from a winter invitational, more than 3 seconds faster than she was at this time last year.

 

What kind of form will Bailey Andison be in at these Olympic Trials? The 26 year old represented Canada in this event at the 2020 Olympics and has been as fast as 2:09.99. However, she hasn’t been able to find the same form since with her best time being 2:13.17 from 2022 Canadian Trials. She’s been looking in decent form so far this year going 2:15.55 and 2:14.19 at the most recent TYR Pro Swim Series stops.

 

The same can be said about Tessa Cieplucha. Although she’s more of a 400m IMer, she has a PB of 2:12.03 in this event from 2022. Her best time from 2023 was 2:14.53 at Canadian Trials and her best time from this year is 2:16.35 from the Knoxville TYR Pro Swim Series. She’ll look to better her time from last year.

 

Danielle Hanus and Sienna Angove may be 8 years apart but they’ve both managed to set PBs this season. They’ll look to build on that this week.

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Summer McIntosh

2. Sydney Pickrem

 

Men's 1500m Freestyle

 

 

Last but not least, we have the men’s 800m freestyle. Just like in the 800m freestyle, it’s the same 3 guys that lead the way on the psych sheets.

 

Leading the way is Eric Brown. Brown has consistently topped the distance races in the post Ryan Cochrane era and this event looks like it’ll be much of the same. After going 15:26.85 at the 2023 Canadian Trials, he most recently swam 15:18.02 at the 2023 US Open. That’s just off his 15:17.46 PB that he posted at 2022 Canadian Trials so it bodes well heading into these trials. He also has a time of 15:25.48 from the Commonwealth Games.

 

On the rise is Timothe Barbeau. He’s in good form with his top 5 best times all coming since 2023. After going 15:32.99 at 2023 Canadian Trials, he went even faster at the World Junior Championships placing 8^th in 15:23.50. He also had a solid showing of 15:35.59 at the Pan American Games to place 8^th again. This year, his best time is 15:42.41 from the Quebec Championships in February.

 

Alexander Axon is seeded 3^rd but he could very much win this race. As mentioned in the 400m freestyle preview, he dropped a 2 second PB at the Canadian Open. He didn’t swim the 1500m freestyle at that competition so if he has a similar progression, he could be in the low 15:20s timewise which would be a new PB. His best times in 2023 came at Canadian Trials (15:31.70) and the Canadian Championships (15:31.58).

 

Spoiler

Predicted Qualifiers:

None

 

A sour end to the competition unfortunately

[Topicmaster1010 4,181]

That's all for previews. Thanks to everyone who actually took the time to read through all 28 previews (or at least most of them). These took a lot of time to make so I hope you all enjoyed them!

 

Bring on Trials!

 

Spoiler

 

[Josh 10,516]

Olympic Trials start today! 

[intoronto 5,641]

Laon Kim 3 seconds of his PB :/

[Josh 10,516]

3:50.97 for Lorne Wigginton in the men’s 400m freestyle prelims!