2024 Canadian Olympic Swim Trials

[canadafan2024 140]

2 hours ago, Surlympics said:

I’m sad I bought tickets lol

I can relate, I had a ticket to the 2020 trials which were postponed and eventually held without fans in '21

[Surlympics 1,242]

I bought tickets to the 2020 ones too haha . 

[canadafan2024 140]

Trials moving to Toronto at the Pan Am Centre:

 

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/summer/aquatics/canadian-national-swimming-trials-venue-1.7167349

[Josh 11,647]

22 minutes ago, canadafan2024 said:

Trials moving to Toronto at the Pan Am Centre:

 

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/summer/aquatics/canadian-national-swimming-trials-venue-1.7167349

After the news on the fire that occurred and the damage it had done I was hoping that they would switch it to Toronto, the Pan Am Centre is a faster pool and I’m expecting great times there. On the other hand, I feel sorry for the families who will have to scramble to change their tickets from Montreal to Toronto just one month out from Trials. 

Edited April 8, 2024 by Josh

[George_D 1,474]

16 minutes ago, Josh said:

After the news on the fire that occurred and the damage it had done I was hoping that they would switch it to Toronto, the Pan Am Centre is a faster pool and I’m expecting great times there. On the other hand, I feel sorry for the families who will have to scramble to change their tickets from Montreal to Toronto just one month out from Trials. 

At least they have chosen the best venue

[intoronto 6,572]

At least Air Canada is stepping up

 

Air Canada, a sponsor of the event, has offered to waive any change fees and fare differences incurred by those with flights already booked to Montreal.

[orangeman 2,302]

1 hour ago, intoronto said:

At least Air Canada is stepping up

 

Air Canada, a sponsor of the event, has offered to waive any change fees and fare differences incurred by those with flights already booked to Montreal.

Wow, rare win by Air Canada. Wonder if they'll balance it out by having their flight attendants be extra nasty to the passengers. 

[Topicmaster1010 5,534]

2024 Canadian Olympic Swimming Trials: Day 1 Preview

*Image Source Maggie MacNeil is set to take on her signature 100m butterfly event

Unfortunately, psych sheets aren't out yet but I need to start doing these if I want to finish in time before trials begin.

 

Men's 400m Freestyle

 

 

The men’s 400m freestyle will be the event that kicks off Canadian Trials. This is an event that has stalled since Ryan Cochrane retired but there is reason for optimism thanks to a pair of swimmers breaking the 3:50 mark.

 

The first of which is Lorne Wigginton. Wigginton emerged as one of Canada’s top prospects last year. There is actually a chance he doesn’t end of swimming this event since it comes one day before his signature 400 IM event at the Olympics. If he does, he’s definitely a contender to not only win but get under the OQT. He finished 3^rd at last year’s Canadian trials in 3:54.73 before smashing his PB  by over 4 seconds in the heats of the World Junior Championships in 3:50.72. He would then take it down to 3:49.05 in the final. This year, his times have been a bit slower though (since moving from USC to Toronto HPC). His most recent performances have been a 3:58.07 at the US Open, 3:50.91 at 2024 Worlds and 3:53.40 at the Canadian Open. However, I’m sure he can get back down in the high 3:40s with a good taper.

 

Someone who is trending in the right direction though is Alexander Axon. The Ohio State swimmer had a solid NCAA season finishing 3^rd in the 500yd freestyle at the Big Ten Championships. After going 3:55.07 at last year’s Trials, he’s brought down his PB 4 times most recently at the Canadian Open where he dipped under the 3:50 mark for the first time in 3:49.33.

 

Of course, we can’t forget about last year’s Trials winner Eric Brown. We haven’t seen him race too much this year but his results are trending in the right direction. His most recent long course result was 3:53.14 at the 2023 US Open which is over a second faster than he was at the 2022 edition.

Jeremy Bagshaw does have the 2^nd fastest PB in the field at 3:48.82 but that was back in 2017 and I would be shocked if he was in contention here.

This will also likely be the first event for 15 year old phenom Laon Kim. While the OQT is well out of reach for him at the moment, he’ll be looking to build off the NAG of 3:56.79 he set at last years trials. He’ll have a better shot at the 200m freestyle.

 

Also looking to build off their PBs this season will be Timothe Barbeau, Jordi Vilchez and Patrick Hussey.

 

Predicted Qualifiers:

None

 

Despite the improvements from the top swimmers, I don’t see anyone breaking the OQT. I think Axon has a good chance of getting under the consideration time but the OQT might be just out of reach.

 

Women's 400m Freestyle

 

 

There will be different races going on at once here. The first will be Summer McIntosh against the clock. The 2^nd will be the battle for a potential 2^nd qualification spot.

 

It was last year at the 2023 Trials that Summer McIntosh broke the 400m freestyle World record in 3:56.08. The record has since been broken by Ariarne Titmus but she has still consistently gone sub 4 minutes every time she has swum the event at competitions. We can expect her to get under the OQT with ease. In fact, even her 400m split from her 800m freestyle swim in February of 4:03.63 would still have been over 4 seconds under the OQT.

 

More interesting is the battle for 2^nd place. Ella Jansen is currently the 2^nd seed with her time of 4:07.18 from last March at the TYR Pro Swim Series. On paper, she’s by far the 2^nd fastest swimmer in the race but she has shown some inconsistency as of late. She was 4:08.81 at last years Canadian trials before going 4:12.77 in the heats at the 2023 World Championships. She bounced back a bit at the World Junior Championships in 4:09.48 (on the same day as a 200m IM double) but then went 4:17.01 at the 2024 World Championships. She did go 4:11.54 recently at the Canadian Open though so she seems to be heading in the right direction. She also has the advantage of having already achieved the OQT during the qualification period. Remember that Swimming Canada does accept OQT times from outside trials for swimmers that place in the top 2.

 

The other contenders for the 2^nd spot will likely be Mabel Zavaros and Julie Brousseau. Zavaros has a PB of 4:10.96 from last years trials but she has only one result this year of 4:15.25 at the Canadian Open. However, given her trajectory from last year and her ability to perform in high level meets, it’s fair to say that she will be a factor in this race.

 

Julie Brousseau meanwhile has emerged as one of the top Canadian swimming prospects. While she has a bigger chance to make the team in the 200m freestyle, she could be a factor here. She was 4:14.10 at last years Canadian Trials before dropping 3 seconds at World Juniors to finish in a time of 4:11.38. She would later bring it down to 4:11.32 at the Pan Am Games. In 2024 her best has been a 4:14.59 at the Winter Ontario Championships but it’s still 4 seconds than she was last year at this time so she could be in for another big time drop at Olympic Trials.

 

The rest of the field is a bit of a ways behind. Katrina Bellio has been 4:11.06 but hasn’t recorded a long course time this year. Emma O’Croinin has been as fast as 4:08.11 but that was some time ago. The other swimmers on the top 10 list are all still quite aways from the pace and haven’t improved on their PBs yet this season.

 

Predicted Qualifiers:

1.      Summer McIntosh

2.      Ella Jansen

 

Summer winning is pretty straight forward. I still think Jansen will beat out the other competitors and her getting the OQT in the qualification period will play to her advantage.

 

 

Women's 100m Butterfly

 

 

This has the potential to be a fun race.

 

Not surprisingly, Maggie Mac Neil comes in as the top seed for this event. The 2020 Olympic Champion is seeded at 56.45 from the 2023 World Championships but has been as fast as 55.59. This season she has shown that she can consistently put up 57 second clockings at in season meets most recently going 57.24 at the Canadian Open. We can expect her to qualify for the Olympics with ease.

 

Katerine Savard comes in with the next fastest time. The now 30 year old has been a mainstay on the Canadian Team for over a decade now and is looking to qualify for her 4^th Olympics. Her time of 57.86 from last years trials is under the OQT so as long as she finishes in the top 2, she’ll be off to Paris. However, her results since Trials haven’t been as good. Her fastest time since then is a 58.18 from the 2023 World Championships. She went 58.73 at the 2024 World Championships and most recently went 59.57 at the Eastern Canadian Championships.

 

Also looking to snatch an Olympic spot is Mary-Sophie Harvey. The 24 year old is swimming better than she ever has setting PB’s in multiple events including the 100m butterfly where she went 58.05 last month at the Canadian Open. She didn’t swim this at last years Trials but she has mentioned that she does intend to this year.

 

Also looking to get an Olympic spot is Rebecca Smith. She took most of last year off to focus her nursing degree. So far this season, she’s posted times of 58.72 at the Canadian Championships, 59.50 at the Rotterdam Qualification Meet, 59.54  at the Western Canadian Championships and most recently a 59.49 at the Canadian Open.  She also had a 58.28 split on the bronze winning medley relay at 2024 Worlds. Still a ways off the OQT but with I believe she can get close with a full taper.

 

Kamryn Cannings could also have something to say in this race. She had a nice freshman season at Liberty University winning the Atlantic Sun Championship title in the 100 yard butterfly. After going 58.67 at Canadian Trials last year, she went 59.15 at the Canadian Championships and most recently, 1:00.18 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in San Antonio. Another big time drop could be possible.

 

Predicted Qualifiers:

1.      Maggie Mac Neil

2.      Mary-Sophie Harvey

 

Harvey is swimming lights out right now and I’m picking her to keep up her momentum here.

 

Men's 100m Breaststroke

 

 

I’m just going to cut straight to the chase here, I don’t see anyone getting under the OQT. As you can see by the entry times, no one is even in the same atmosphere.

 

James Dergousoff has won the 100m breaststroke title at Canadian trials each of the last two years. After going 1:01.27 to win 2023 trials, he’s improved on that time most recently going 1:00.77 at the 2024 World Championships. *Note: As of writing this, I’m seeing reports that Dergousoff isn’t actually on the psych sheets. Not sure if it’s a late entry or not but it’s something worth monitoring.

 

Finlay Knox comes in as the 2^nd seed. This will likely be the 1^st event for the 2024 World Champion in the 200m IM. It remains to be seen whether or not he’ll actually swim this event but if he does, he has a good chance of winning as his PB is only 0.14 seconds behind that of Dergousoff. He set that time recently at the Canadian Open bringing it down by 0.38 seconds from March 2023.

 

Gabe Mastromatteo hasn’t quite lived up to the hype he had as a teenager but his results have been trending the right direction. Last year at Canadian trials he went 1:00.96, his fastest time since 2020 Olympic Trials and then followed that up with a 1:01.39 at the Pan American Games.

 

Brayden Taivassalo has been having a great year. He’s a better 200m breaststroker but could also make some noise in this event. He finished 2^nd at the Big 12 Championships in the NCAA this year. He hasn’t raced long course in 2024 but his best time is from the 2023 Canadian Trials at 1:01.10.

 

Justice Migneault and Apollo Hess will also look to get in the mix.

 

Predicted Qualifiers:

1.      Finlay Knox (relay only)

 

Going with the guy with the best trajectory here.

 

Let me know if you guys have any feedback or discussion points surrounding any of the swimmers mentioned/not mentioned!

[Surlympics 1,242]

Would love to see one of the male breastrokers get under 1:00 

[Josh 11,647]

@Topicmaster1010 Dergousoff isn’t on the entry list according to SwimSwam