Boxing Olympic Rankings

[Ogreman 355]

On 6/14/2024 at 1:43 PM, Notredame said:

Do you plan to release a new ranking with only the qualified athletes to the Olympics?

Yes its on my list of things to do. Had a quick look at it after the second world qualifier and I suspect it might take me a while as I have a lot of tinkering to do. Probably will be a couple of weeks till I get round to it so I suspect I'll end up posting them sometime in mid July. Don't hold me to that though, definitely before the Olympic draw happens anyway.

[Pasolini 248]

Wow that's an amazing list!!! thanks a lot

[intoronto 5,580]

Wyatt Sanford 63.5kg will be the #1 seed for the Olympic tournament.

[Ogreman 355]

Right, it is the moment that nobody has been waiting for, (well I guess I have been waiting for it as this took a while). Anyway, so here are my rankings of the Olympic boxers. These rankings probably won't prove to be that accurate but hopefully they are at least reasonably predictive (ie most higher ranked beat lower ranked boxers head to head) and are somewhat useful. I did try to leave personal preferences for certain styles or whatever aside so hopefully nothing proves too egregious. Seeds are in brackets. I should emphasize the seeding draw was randomized, there is no difference in quality between a given 1st seed or a given 4th seed. Additionally in some of these weighclasses the biggest effect seeding will have is on the probablitly of getting a bye.

The draw obviously play a huge factor into who medals or not and to be honest this ranking is probably most useful in analysing how difficult a particular bracket is.

 

I have added an updated Excel file to the title page of this thread and will link it here as well but will of course also post all of the rankings below. 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IXUV9JedDIIPekE16V3nBAbvkYHvW0Fl/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true

 

I will try and predict the medallists after the draw happens and will add some analysis there. I'm too tired to add analysis to these but happy to discuss any rankings people disagree with or whatever.  

 

Olympic Rankings (W50,W54,W57)

 

 

	W50kg	W54kg	W57kg
1	Buse naz Cakiroglu (TUR) (3)	Pang Chol-mi (PRK) (4)	Lin Yu-ting (TPE) (1)
2	Nikhat Zareen (IND)	Stanimira Petrova (BUL) (1)	Nesthy Petecio (PHI)
3	Wu Yu (CHN) (1)	Sara Cirkovic (SRB)	Irma Testa (ITA)
4	Sabina Bobokulova (UZB)	Charley Sian Taylor Davison (GBR)	Svetlana Staneva (BUL) (8)
5	Chuthamat Raksat (THA) (8)	Yuan Chang (CHN) (8)	Karina Ibragimova (KAZ) (7)
6	Giordana Sorrentino (ITA)	Hsiao Wen Huang (TPE)	Jucielen Romeu (BRA) (4)
7	Daina Moorehouse (IRL)	Lacramioara Perijoc (ROU) (6)	Amina Zidani (FRA) (3)
8	Ingirt Valencia Victoria (COL)	Hatice Akbas (TUR)	Michaela Walsh (IRL)
9	Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA) (7)	Jutamas Jitpong (THA)	Esra Yildiz (TUR)
10	Aira Villegas (PHI)	Im Aeji (KOR)	Xu Zichun (CHN)
11	Caroline de Almeida (BRA) (4)	Preeti (IND)	Jaismine (IND)
12	Monique Suraci (AUS) (5)	Jennifer Lehane (IRL)	Omailyn Alcala (VEN)
13	Yesugen Oyunsetseg (MGL)	Yeni Arias (COL) (2)	Mijgona Samadova (TJK)
14	Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ)	Sirine Charaabi (ITA)	Julia Szeremeta (POL)
15	Laura Fuertes (ESP)	Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL)	Alyssa Mendoza (USA)
16	Roumaysa Boualam (ALG) (2)	Nigina Uktamova (UZB)	Ashleyann Lozada (PUR)
17	Maxi Kloetzer (GER)	Thi Kim Anh Vo (VIE)	Valeria Arboleda (COL) (6)
18	Pihla Kaivo Oja (FIN)	Bojana Gojkovic (MNE)	Khouloud Hlimi (TUN) (5)
19	Yasmine Mouttaki (MAR)	Tatiana de Jesus (BRA) (7)	Sitora Turdibekova (UZB)
20	Jennifer Lozano (USA) (6)	Tiana Echegaray (AUS) (3)	Marcelat Sakobi (DRC)
21	Fatima Herrera (MEX)	Widad Bertal (MAR) (5)	Marine Camara (MLI)
22	Margret Tembo (ZAM)	Yomna Ayyad (EGY)	Tina Rahimi (AUS) (2)

 

Edited July 23 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 355]

Olympic Rankings (W60kg,W66kg,W75kg)

 

 

	W60kg	W66kg	W75kg
1	Kellie Harrington (IRL) (3)	Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR) (1)	Tammara Thibeault (CAN) (3)
2	Beatriz Ferreira (BRA) (2)	Imane Khelif (ALG) (5)	Aoife O'Rourke (IRL) (2)
3	Angie Valdez (COL) (6)	Yang Liu (CHN) (2)	Qian Li (CHN) (1)
4	Yang Wenlu (CHN) (1)	Nien-chin Chen (TPE)	Cindy Ngamba (REF)
5	Won Ung-yong (PRK) (7)	Aneta Rygielska (POL)	Lovlina Borgohain (IND) (8)
6	Estelle Mossely (FRA)	Barbara dos Santos (BRA) (3)	Atheyna Bylon (PAN) (7)
7	Natalia Shadrina (SRB) (8)	Grainne Walsh (IRL)	Caitlin Parker (AUS) (5)
8	Oh Yeonji (KOR)	Rosie Eccles (GBR)	Sunniva Hofstad (NOR)
9	Donjeta Sadiku (KOS)	Morelle McCane (USA) (6)	Khadija El Mardi (MAR) (4)
10	Wu Shih-yi (TPE)	Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA) (8)	Davina Michel (FRA) (6)
11	Chelsey Heijnen (NED)	Alcinda dos Santos (MOZ)	Valentina Khalzova (KAZ)
12	Jajaira Gonzalez (USA)	Oshin Derieuw (BEL) (7)	Elzbieta Wojcik (POL)
13	Alessia Mesiano (ITA)	Jessica Triebelova (SVK)	Chantelle Reid (GBR)
14	Agnes Alexiusson (SWE)	Angela Carini (ITA)	Baison Manikon (THA)
15	Gizem Ozer (TUR)	Maria Moronta (DOM)	Hergie Bacyadan (PHI)
16	Thananya Somnuek (THA)	Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB)	Citlalli Ortiz (MEX)
17	Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR) (4)	Brigitte Mbabi (DRC)
18	Thi Linh Ha (VIE)	Luca Hamori (HUN)
19	Maria Palacios (ECU)	Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV)
20	Tyla McDonald (AUS) (5)	Marissa Williamson (AUS) (4)
21	Hadjila Khelif (ALG)
22	Feofaaki Epenisa (TGA)

[Ogreman 355]

Olympic Rankings (M51kg,M57kg,M63.5kg,M71kg)

 

	M51kg	M57kg	M63.5kg	M71kg
1	Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB) (2)	Abdumalik Khalokov (UZB) (1)	Sofiane Oumiha (FRA) (4)	Aslanbek Shymbergenov (KAZ)
2	Saken Bibossinov (KAZ)	Jahmal Harvey (USA) (3)	Ruslan Abdullaev (UZB)	Marco Verde (MEX) (2)
3	Billal Bennama (FRA) (1)	Luiz Oliveira  (BRA)	Bunjong Sinsiri (THA) (6)	Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (UZB)
4	Roscoe Hill (USA)	Javier Ibanez (BUL) (2)	Lasha Guruli (GEO) (7)	Nikolai Terteryan (DEN) (4)
5	Amit Panghal (IND)	Carlo Paalam (PHI)	Bahodur Usmonov (TJK)	Sewon Okazawa (JAP) (3)
6	Alejandro Claro (CUB)	Yilmar Gonzalez (COL)	Erislandy Alvarez (CUB)	Omari Jones (USA)
7	Thitisan Panmot (THA) (6)	Jude Galllagher (IRL)	Harry Garside (AUS) (5)	Nishant Dev (IND)
8	Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM) (3)	Saidel Horta (CUB) (6)	Radoslav Rosenov (BUL)	Aidan Walsh (IRL)
9	Samet Gumus (TUR) (7)	Mahmud Sabyrkhan (KAZ)	Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (KAZ)	Zeyad Eashash (JOR)
10	Nijat Huseynov (AZE)	Aider Abduraimov (UKR)	Malik Hasanov (AZE)	Vakhid Abbasov (SRB) (6)
11	Rafa Lozano Jr (ESP)	Jose Quiles Brotons (ESP) (8)	Dean Clancy (IRL)	Tugrulhan Erdemir (TUR) (WD?)
12	Juanma Lopez (PUR)	Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ)	Jesu Cova (VEN)	Lewis Richardson (GBR)
13	Junior Alcantara (DOM) (4)	Vasile Ustoroi (BEL)	Wyatt Sanford (CAN) (1)	Damian Durkacz (POL)
14	David de Pina (CPV)	Nebil Ibrahim (SWE)	Miguel Martinez (MEX) (8)	Rami Kiwan (BUL)
15	Michael de Trindade (BRA) (8)	Shudai Harada (JPN) (7)	Obada Al Kasbeh (JOR)	Makan Traore (FRA)
16	Omid Ahmadisafa (REF)	Dolapo Omole (NGR) (5) (WD)	Oier Ibarreche (ESP)	Jose Rodriguez (ECU) (7)
17	Yusuf Chothia (AUS) (5)	Charlie Senior (AUS) (4)	Chu-en Lai (TPE) (2)	Tiago Muxanga (MOZ)
18		Wasim Abusal (PLE)	Jugurtha Ait Bekka (ALG) (3)	Chia Wei Kan (TPE) (8)
19			Richard Kovacs (HUN)	Omar Elawady (EGY) (5)
20			Pemberton Lele (SOL)	Shannan Davey (AUS) (1)

Edited July 23 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 355]

Olympic Rankings (M80kg,M92kg,M92+kg)

 

 

	M80kg	M92kg	M92+kg
1	Oleksandr Khyzniak (UKR)  (3)	Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA) (3)	Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB) (4)
2	Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ)	Keno Machado (BRA) (6)	Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ) (7)
3	Tuohetaebieke Tanglatihan (CHN) (1)	Julio Cesar la Cruz (CUB) (4)	Teremoana Jnr (AUS) (5)
4	Arlen Lopez (CUB) (2)	Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB)	Joshua Edwards (USA) (1)
5	Turbaek Khabibullaev (UZB)	Aybek Oralbay (KAZ)	Nelvie Tiafack (GER)
6	Eumir Marcial (PHI) (7)	Loren Alfosno Domniguez (AZE)	Abner Texeira (BRA) (6)
7	Cristian Pinales (DOM)	Enamanuel Reyes (ESP)	Ayoub Ghafa Drissi El Aissaoui (ESP)
8	Gabrijel Veocic (CRO) (8)	Georgii Kushitashvili (GEO)	Delicious Orie (GBR) (2)
9	Wanderley Pereira (BRA) (6)	Jack Marley (IRL) (7)	Davit Chaloyan (ARM)
10	Weerapon Jongjoho (THA)	Patrick Brown (GBR)	Diego Lenzi (ITA)
11	Hussein Iashaish (JOR)	Davlat Boltaev (TJK) (2)	Mahammud Abdullayev (AZE) (8)
12	Pylyp Akilov (HUN)	Victor Schelstraete (BEL)	Djamili Aboudou Moindze (FRA)
13	Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA)	Han Xuezhen (CHN) (8)	Omar Shiha (NOR)
14	Murad Allahverdiyev (AZE)	Mateusz Bereznicki (POL)	Dmytro Lovchynskyi(UKR)
15	Callum Peters (AUS) (5)	Ato Plodzicki Faoagali (SAM) (1)	Gerlon Congo (ECU)
16	Kaan Aykutsun (TUR)	Adam Olaore (NGR) (5)	Mourad Kadi (ALG) (3)
17	Abdelrahman Oraby Abdelgawwad (EGY) (4)
18	Cedrick Belony Duliepre (HAI)

[Ogreman 355]

	Boxers	Projected gold	Projected silver	Projected bronze	Total Contenders (top 8)	Outside chances (9-12)
Uzbekistan	11	3	1	3	8	0
Turkey	8	2	0	0	3	3
Kazakhstan	10	1	3	0	6	3
Ireland	10	1	1	0	7	3
France	8	1	0	1	4	3
Italy	8	1	0	1	3	1
Chinese Taipei	6	1	0	1	3	1
North Korea	2	1	0	0	2	0
Ukraine	3	1	0	0	1	1
Canada	2	1	0	0	1	0
Brazil	10	0	2	1	6	2
USA	8	0	1	2	4	2
Bulgaria	5	0	1	2	4	0
India	6	0	1	0	4	2
Philippines	5	0	1	0	3	1
Algeria	5	0	1	0	1	0
Mexico	4	0	1	0	1	0
China	8	0	0	5	6	1
Cuba	5	0	0	2	5	0
Thailand	8	0	0	1	3	3
Great Britain and NI	6	0	0	1	3	2
Australia	12	0	0	1	3	1
Colombia	5	0	0	1	3	0
Congo	5	0	0	1	3	0
Serbia	3	0	0	1	2	1
Georgia	2	0	0	1	2	0
Refugee team	2	0	0	1	1	0
Denmark	1	0	0	1	1	0
Spain	6	0	0	0	2	2
Azerbaijan	5	0	0	0	1	3
Poland	5	0	0	0	1	1
Tajikistan	3	0	0	0	1	1
South Korea	2	0	0	0	1	1
Dominican Republic	3	0	0	0	1	0
Germany	2	0	0	0	1	0
Norway	2	0	0	0	1	0
Zambia	2	0	0	0	1	0
Croatia	1	0	0	0	1	0
Panama	1	0	0	0	1	0
Romania	1	0	0	0	1	0
Belgium	3	0	0	0	0	2
Jordan	3	0	0	0	0	2
Venezuela	2	0	0	0	0	2
Hungary	3	0	0	0	0	1
Morocco	3	0	0	0	0	1
Mozambique	2	0	0	0	0	1
Puerto Rico	2	0	0	0	0	1
Armenia	1	0	0	0	0	1
Kosovo	1	0	0	0	0	1
Kyrgyzstan	1	0	0	0	0	1
Netherlands	1	0	0	0	0	1
Ecuador	3	0	0	0	0	0
Egypt	3	0	0	0	0	0
Nigeria	2	0	0	0	0	0
Cape Verde	2	0	0	0	0	0
DR Congo	2	0	0	0	0	0
Mongolia	2	0	0	0	0	0
Sweden	2	0	0	0	0	0
Vietnam	2	0	0	0	0	0
Finland	1	0	0	0	0	0
Haiti	1	0	0	0	0	0
Japan	1	0	0	0	0	0
Montenegro	1	0	0	0	0	0
Palestine	1	0	0	0	0	0
Samoa	1	0	0	0	0	0
Slovakia	1	0	0	0	0	0
Solomon Islands	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tonga	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tunisia	1	0	0	0	0	0

 

Table of what the medal table would look like strictly based off my rankings. Does not take account of seeding so is already wrong. Uzbekistan as you would expect are massive favourites to top the medal table here but given how Tokyo went for them they will know how volatile boxing often is. Kazakhstan are probably slight favourites to at least win the second most total medals but after that it is anyone's game really (well not quite anyone but). GB with a small and not particularly strong squad and no Russia mean the medal table will look very different to last time. Of course the actually medal table or even my predicted medal table will look very different to this, the point of this table is to assess the quality of countries' contingents and not to accurately predict their medal prospects.

Edited July 23 by Ogreman

[stratocumulus 68]

8 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Olympic Rankings (M80kg,M92kg,M92+kg)

 

 

	M80kg	M92kg	M92+kg
1	Oleksandr Khyzniak (UKR)  (3)	Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA) (3)	Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB) (4)
2	Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ)	Keno Machado (BRA) (6)	Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ) (7)
3	Tuohetaebieke Tanglatihan (CHN) (1)	Julio Cesar la Cruz (CUB) (4)	Teremoana Jnr (AUS) (5)
4	Arlen Lopez (CUB) (2)	Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB)	Joshua Edwards (USA) (1)
5	Turbaek Khabibullaev (UZB)	Aybek Oralbay (KAZ)	Nelvie Tiafack (GER)
6	Eumir Marcial (PHI) (7)	Loren Alfosno Domniguez (AZE)	Abner Texeira (BRA) (6)
7	Cristian Pinales (DOM)	Enamanuel Reyes (ESP)	Ayoub Ghafa Drissi El Aissaoui (ESP)
8	Gabrijel Veocic (CRO) (8)	Georgii Kushitashvili (GEO)	Delicious Orie (GBR) (2)
9	Wanderley Pereira (BRA) (6)	Jack Marley (IRL) (7)	Davit Chaloyan (ARM)
10	Weerapon Jongjoho (THA)	Patrick Brown (GBR)	Diego Lenzi (ITA)
11	Hussein Iashaish (JOR)	Davlat Boltaev (TJK) (2)	Mahammud Abdullayev (AZE) (8)
12	Pylyp Akilov (HUN)	Victor Schelstraete (BEL)	Djamili Aboudou Moindze (FRA)
13	Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA)	Han Xuezhen (CHN) (8)	Omar Shiha (NOR)
14	Murad Allahverdiyev (AZE)	Mateusz Bereznicki (POL)	Dmytro Lovchynskyi(UKR)
15	Callum Peters (AUS) (5)	Ato Plodzicki Faoagali (SAM) (1)	Gerlon Congo (ECU)
16	Kaan Aykutsun (TUR)	Adam Olaore (NGR) (5)	Mourad Kadi (ALG) (3)
17	Abdelrahman Oraby Abdelgawwad (EGY) (4)
18	Cedrick Belony Duliepre (HAI)

Great job, thank you for that

Might I ask why is Mateusz Bereznicki according to your ranking as low as 14th? Is it because the whole line up is exceptionally strong or you just do not find him strong enough? I ask as someone who does not dig deep in boxing but I saw some of his bouts in the OQT and found his boxing... convincing

[Josh 10,297]

6 hours ago, stratocumulus said:

Great job, thank you for that

Might I ask why is Mateusz Bereznicki according to your ranking as low as 14th? Is it because the whole line up is exceptionally strong or you just do not find him strong enough? I ask as someone who does not dig deep in boxing but I saw some of his bouts in the OQT and found his boxing... convincing

Same for question for Sanford.