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Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Qualification Quota Simulation (Version 2)


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Tried to count it for Poland myself…

 

I am worried that rugby W team will not qualify… that’s -12

 

i don’t see we can qualify in diving… that’s -3. Or maybe one individual - that would be -2

 

i don’t know much about rhythmic gymnastics but I don’t see it happen either… -1

 

i think we qualify 3 athletes in sports climbing - Ola Mirosław is already in and I think we get one more girl and one more boy in speed - that’s +1

 

50 quotas in athletics is a lot but I think it may be even more although we won’t be that strong like in Tokyo for sure, we were so lucky in Tokyo that things like that just can’t happen twice . I think we qualify a lot of relays and we send everyone who is in by world rankings . One possible drama is whether our heptathlete goes (Ada Sułek who is pregnant now but she is already qualified) . Heads (CEOs) of our Athletics Team don’t like her because she critized them heavily in Eugene WCH so as I know Polish reality now they will want her to prove that she’s in good form before the Olympics and they won’t send her if she’s not… but other will go without any extra tests… 

 

so I say it’s rather 60 quota in athletics +10 but there will be surely 2 or 3 injuries so it’s +7 in the end . But only 2 medals in athletics this time and I won’t be surprised if there is no gold 

 

overall around 195-200

 

 

Edited by rafalgorka

 

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NGR and RSA can’t qualify both in W football because they are both in the same half of the bracket.

 

It will be one from:

GHA ZAM TUN MAR

and one from:

CMR NGR TAN RSA

 

i think it will be MAR and NGR

 

I would love to see TAN advance though but it will not happen 

 

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1 hour ago, rafalgorka said:

NGR and RSA can’t qualify both in W football because they are both in the same half of the bracket.

 

It will be one from:

GHA ZAM TUN MAR

and one from:

CMR NGR TAN RSA

 

i think it will be MAR and NGR

 

I would love to see TAN advance though but it will not happen 

Thanks for catching that! I'll do a minor update this weekend.

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Small comparison Tokyo vs Paris predictions

 

Europe

 

ALB 9-6

AND 2-6

ARM 17-19

AUT 73-79

AZE 44-43

BEL 123-168

BIH 7-6

BUL 42-39

CRO 60-74

CYP 15-16

CZE 109-94

DEN 104-116

EST 33-22

FIN 45-62

FRA 380-540 hosts

GEO 33-30

GER 392-403

GBR 375-330

GRE 75-62

HUN 172-185

ISL 4-11

IRL 120-107

ISR 89-85

ITA 366-367

KOS 11-9

LAT 32-37

LIE 5-3

LTU 42-61

LUX 12-13

MLT 6-5

MDA 20-22

MON 6-7

MNE 34-33

NED 267-207

MKD 8-4

NOR 93-103

POL 206-210

POR 92-77

ROU 102-96

SMR 5-6

SRB 87-111

SVK 41-28

SLO 53-80

ESP 328-365

SWE 133-119

SUI 113-120

TUR 105-90

UKR 149-124

 

Many NOC stay more or less the same, but there are some quite big changes.

Edited by rafalgorka

 

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