Athletics at the Summer Olympic Games 2016

[OlympicsFan 859]

vor 34 Minuten schrieb GER-PJ:

Why can the German NOC nominate Tobias Giehl (400m hurdles)??

He hasn't got the qualification standard and he isn't published on the official Olympic ranking??  

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/sport/leichtathletik-nur-noch-drei-1.3077217

Same was true for Kock and Sujew, but both are now officialy in, because enough athletes ranked ahead of them declined their place.

[GER-PJ 99]

Thanks

[OlympicsFan 859]

vor 14 Minuten schrieb GER-PJ:

Thanks

http://road-to-rio.com/

Here you can see his current position (you have to select men's 400m hurdles). I think he needs to hope that 3 faster guys (assuming that no russian athlete will be allowed to compete) decline their spot. I am not very optimistic, its very sad that Franz and Königsmark werent able to get back into their top shape. 

How many medals do you expect? I think 10-12 medals would be a good result for us.

[GER-PJ 99]

Thanks again. That is important for two German athletes (Giehl; Woitha).

 

I think 10-12 medals are a very good result, but possible. In London 2012 and Bejing 2015 we got 8 medals. 

We should get a medal in each throwing competition (7). And then it will be difficult... (moguenara in longjump, strutz or ryzih in pole vault, max heß in triplejump) 

I think 8-10 medals are a good result.

[OlympicsFan 859]

vor 4 Minuten schrieb GER-PJ:

Thanks again. That is important for two German athletes (Giehl; Woitha).

 

I think 10-12 medals are a very good result, but possible. In London 2012 and Bejing 2015 we got 8 medals. 

We should get a medal in each throwing competition (7). And then it will be difficult... (moguenara in longjump, strutz or ryzih in pole vault, max heß in triplejump) 

I think 8-10 medals are a good result.

11 of our athletes are currently top 3 + Tesfaye (mens 1500m) + Linke (mens 20km race walking) + Holzdeppe (mens pole vault) + Heß (mens triple jump) + Onnen (mens high jump) + Weber (mens javelin throw) + Storl (mens shot put) + mens 4x100m relay + Krause (womens 3000m SC) + Roleder (womens 100m hurdles) + Mihambo (womens long jump) + Gierisch (womens triple jump) + Ryzih (womens pole vault) + Jungfleisch (womens high jump) + Stahl (womens javelin throw) + Schäfer (womens heptathlon). I think Holzdeppe, Heß, Storl, Krause, Roleder, Stahl and Schäfer all have a realistic chance for a medal.

 

Do you think Lückenkemper or Klosterhalfen will reach the final in Rio?

[GER-PJ 99]

Yes, they all have realistic opportunities, but the experience says that not all of this will come true.

 

I hope both of them reach the final. But I wouldn'r bet on this. Gina Lückenkemper have a great run at the european championships. 

[OlympicsFan 859]

vor 1 Stunde schrieb GER-PJ:

Yes, they all have realistic opportunities, but the experience says that not all of this will come true.

 

I hope both of them reach the final. But I wouldn'r bet on this. Gina Lückenkemper have a great run at the european championships. 

Normally about half of the medal contenders win a medal and we have at least 20 medal contenders:

Storl, Röhler, Vetter, Weber, C.Harting, R.Harting, Onnen, Holzdeppe (if fit), Heß, Abele, Kazmirek, Linke, Tesfaye, mens 4x100m relay, Schwanitz, Heidler, Stahl, Hussong, Fischer/Müller, Mihambo/Moguenara (if fit), Jungfleisch, Ryzih, Gierisch/Elbe, Schäfer, Roleder, Krause, womens 4x100m relay. Some of them are unlikely to win a medal, but Storl/Röhler/Vetter/R.Harting/Holzdeppe/Heß/Abele/Schwanitz/Heidler/Stahl/Hussong/Fischer/Roleder/Krause/Schäfer and maybe Moguenara and our womens 4x100m relay all are among the favorites to win a medal. For me the worst case would be that "only" Storl, Röhler, R.Harting, Abele, Schwanitz, Heidler, Hussong, Fischer, Roleder and Krause win a medal.

 

I was actually disappointed by Lückenkemper at the european championships, i expected her to run at least sub 22.50s, we have to hope that she will peak in Rio. I think she has to be at least on the same level as Lalova if she wants to reach the final. I am clearly more optimistic about Klosterhalfen, not only because 12 athletes can reach the final in womens 1500m. I just hope that Klosterhalfen wont use all her energy at the junior world championships, where she wants to win two medals.

Edited July 14, 2016 by OlympicsFan

[stepansevs 129]

4 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

http://road-to-rio.com/

Here you can see his current position (you have to select men's 400m hurdles). I think he needs to hope that 3 faster guys (assuming that no russian athlete will be allowed to compete) decline their spot. I am not very optimistic, its very sad that Franz and Königsmark werent able to get back into their top shape. 

How many medals do you expect? I think 10-12 medals would be a good result for us.

Do you know how credible road to rio is? Czech Republic had 2 athletes with small q yesterday, but today there isn´t anyone. And i read news that one of them (Melich - hammer throw) received invitation from IAAF, but he is not included in this list now. I am confused.

[EselTheDonkey 824]

vor 4 Stunden schrieb OlympicsFan:

http://road-to-rio.com/

Here you can see his current position (you have to select men's 400m hurdles). I think he needs to hope that 3 faster guys (assuming that no russian athlete will be allowed to compete) decline their spot. I am not very optimistic, its very sad that Franz and Königsmark werent able to get back into their top shape. 

How many medals do you expect? I think 10-12 medals would be a good result for us.

 

To use heywoodu's system (roughly):

 

Krause: chance 25%

Roleder: 25%

4x100m Men: 5%

4x100m Women: 15%

Linke: 5%

Jungfleisch: 10% 

Holzdeppe: 10% (hoping, that he finds his shape)

Ryzih/Strutz: 5%

Moguenara: 20%

Heß: 25%

Schwanitz: 90%

Storl: 65%

R. Harting: 70%

C. Harting: 20%

Müller: 20%

Fischer: 25%

Craft: 10%

Heidler: 55%

Stahl: 30%

Obergföll: 15%

Hussong: 15%

Röhler: 65%

Vetter: 15%

Weber: 10%

Schäfer: 20%

Kazmirek: 5%

Abele: 35%

Someone else: 5%

 

makes 715 points = 7 medals

[OlympicsFan 859]

vor 30 Minuten schrieb stepansevs:

Do you know how credible road to rio is? Czech Republic had 2 athletes with small q yesterday, but today there isn´t anyone. And i read news that one of them (Melich - hammer throw) received invitation from IAAF, but he is not included in this list now. I am confused.

His best result in the qualifying period is 76.21m from last year, so he should be safe. Maybe they took him off the list of non-qualified athletes and just forgot to add him to the list of qualified athletes. The best athlete on the list of non-qualified athletes has a result of 75.96m and the worst athlete on the list of qualified athletes has a result of 76.18m, Melich has a better result than both and should be safe. I think they get their data from tilastopaja.org website.