Medal Chances for each NOC at Paris 2024

[Noorderling29 234]

Gracenote predicts 38 medals, with 16 golds, for TeamNL. Both would be a record (currently 36 and 12). I haven’t seen the details of their prediction yet, but 16 golds seems to be on the optimistic side. Predictably the main medal providers are rowing and cycling (both road and track). More surprising the third sport mentioned is athletics. Just 3 years ago you would have been laughed away for making  a prediction like that about athletics.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Noorderling29

[OlympicsFan 860]

2 hours ago, Noorderling29 said:

Gracenote predicts 38 medals, with 16 golds, for TeamNL. Both would be a record (currently 36 and 12). I haven’t seen the details of their prediction yet, but 16 golds seems to be on the optimistic side. Predictably the main medal providers are rowing and cycling (both road and track). More surprising the third sport mentioned is athletics. Just 3 years ago you would have been laughed away for making  a prediction like that about athletics.

Don't think that is true. Even back then 4 medals (2-3 x Hassan, heptathlon, Bol) seemed possible and i don't see any other sports (except cycling and rowing) that guarantee 4+ medals. 4+ medals seem also possible in judo/sailing, but 3 or less medals in those sports wouldn't have been a shocking prediction back then.

[Noorderling29 234]

Given that TeamNL won a total of 6 medals in athletics in the 17 games from 1952 to 2016, nobody would have predicted 4 medals at the start of 2020.

 

Bol’s rise started that year (but more clearly in 2021) and Vetter dropped out of the 2019 World Champs with psychological complaints and was far from certain to compete again, let alone at top level. Even in 2021, my guestemation was 4 medals at the very best, with the kamikaze schedule that Hassan chose meaning I had serious doubts about her achieving multiple medals. At least 3 medals (Oosterwegel’s bronze in the hepathlon, and the silvers in the men’s marathon and 4 x 400 meter relays) were totally unexpected. 
 

Multiple medal chances for instance in sailing. 
 

But my point is really how surprising it is that a sport where we basically were dependent on a single talent once in a while, now delivers multiple athletes, likely to make finals and capable of vying for a medal, and a significant number of athletes below that (who on a good day are capable of making a final). In the past our teams consisted almost completely of athletes in the second category.
 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Noorderling29

[heywoodu 16,431]

1 hour ago, Noorderling29 said:

Given that TeamNL won a total of 6 medals in athletics in the 17 games from 1952 to 2016, nobody would have predicted 4 medals at the start of 2020.

To be fair, I don't think anyone would really look at results from 1952 to roughly 2015 or so when predicting medals for 2020  

 

I remember actually having 4-5 athletics medals in the prediction for 2020, when looking at all events, so from a personal perspective I was definitely happy with some (of course especially the relay and the marathon), but definitely not surprised by the total number  

 

Edit: sorry, of course the prediction was not made at the start of 2020, but in the 1-2 months before the 2021 Olympics, my bad and quite a significant difference  

Edited November 3, 2023 by heywoodu

[mpjmcevoy 377]

57 minutes ago, Noorderling29 said:

Given that TeamNL won a total of 6 medals in athletics in the 17 games from 1952 to 2016, nobody would have predicted 4 medals at the start of 2020.

 

Bol’s rise started that year (but more clearly in 2021) and Vetter dropped out of the 2019 World Champs with psychological complaints and was far from certain to compete again, let alone at top level. Even in 2021, my guestemation was 4 medals at the very best, with the kamikaze schedule that Hassan chose meaning I had serious doubts about her achieving multiple medals. At least 3 medals (Oosterwegel’s bronze in the hepathlon, and the silvers in the men’s marathon and 4 x 400 meter relays) were totally unexpected. 
 

Multiple medal chances for instance in sailing. 
 

But my point is really how surprising it is that a sport where we basically were dependent on a single talent once in a while, now delivers multiple athletes, likely to make finals and capable of vying for a medal, and a significant number of athletes below that (who on a good day are capable of making a final). In the past our teams consisted almost completely of athletes in the second category.
 

 

It's always interesting to watch a nation become 'a force' in a sport, seemingly churning out talent where there was little before. The post-communist archetype was the early years of British cycling. Like Dutch athletics, GB cycling always had a Porter, a Boardman, an Obree or a McGregor, partly because of a long legacy of GB TT racing, but never a system that 'churned'. Likewise Irish lightweight rowing.

[Noorderling29 234]

The,oppos

37 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

It's always interesting to watch a nation become 'a force' in a sport, seemingly churning out talent where there was little before. The post-communist archetype was the early years of British cycling. Like Dutch athletics, GB cycling always had a Porter, a Boardman, an Obree or a McGregor, partly because of a long legacy of GB TT racing, but never a system that 'churned'. Likewise Irish lightweight rowing.

The opposite is also true. I’m old enough to remember the Dutch women’s table tennis team making the semifinals of the World championships twice (IIRC) in the 1980s. And three different players becoming individual European champions in a short period of time. Both totally unthinkable now. 

[mpjmcevoy 377]

10 minutes ago, Noorderling29 said:

The,oppos

The opposite is also true. I’m old enough to remember the Dutch women’s table tennis team making the semifinals of the World championships twice (IIRC) in the 1980s. And three different players becoming individual European champions in a short period of time. Both totally unthinkable now. 

See also gbr archery, javelin (I mean, a nation that produced Backley, Whitehead, Sanderstead and Sayers), Canoe sprint, judo until gemma gibbons breakthrough, and dare I say men's triathlon, where Yee seems the last of a very long line of world class men going back to Lessing.

 

Ireland, God love us, we're never strong enough, really, in Olympic sport to 'fall off'..we had some fallow-ish years in athletics, but always had one or two,and now we're blooming!

[avlar 569]

Talking about chances of Ukraine  is not so easy. Preparations are much harder for our athletes as well as qualifications.

It will be not the prediction of medals but the list of medal chances. So I will not be surprised with this medal outcomes:

 

- 2 medals in Diving. 10m (Men). Single and Synchro. Our girls missed a lot due to injuries.

- 3 in Swimming. Romanchuk (800m + 1500m) changed approach after a bad season, Zheltyakov is a gteat talant n backstoke.

- 2 in Artistic Swimming. Hard to predict under the new rules. But the chances are real.

- 4 in Canoe. K4 - men (the best in recent years); C1 (W) and C2(W) - Luzan`s partner is going to be back after pause, wildwater for Us (we are traditionally doing well in new sports or disciplines - 6 of 19 medals in Tokio, for example).

- 4 in Artistic Gymnastics.  All for men - AA, PV, PB + HB/PV/TE.

- 4 in Wrestling. 2 in WW (Koliadenko, Hrushina) and 2 in GR (Belenyuk and young talanted Vyshnevetsky).

- 2 in Shooting. Kostevych and Korostyliov in some combination.

- 4 in Athletics. 2 in women HJ, Kohan in HT and Bekh in Triple Jump.

- 3 in Judo. Bilodid, Lytvynenko and Yadov at least.

- 2 in Fencing. Kharlan and Company in sabre.

- 1 in Boxing. Khyznyak wants to fix his Tokyo fail.

- 1 in Weightlifting. Great chance for Konotop, but only if we allowed to compete in weightlifting, of course.

- 1 in Breaking - one more new discipline and a chance for our girls.

- 1 in Football. Of course the draw will be very important.

 

It does not mean other athletes do not have chances (there are some young talants like Felfner, some injured like Khammo) but their medals would be some king of surprise.

 

So 34 in total. But we have to divide it by 2 to take into account different circumstances. So 17 medals - is a realistic result for us. 20 will be a very good one.

And I do not expect a lof of gold. It is not so easy to prepare under the russian bombs. So every medal would cost twice.

[OlympicsFan 860]

9 hours ago, Noorderling29 said:

Given that TeamNL won a total of 6 medals in athletics in the 17 games from 1952 to 2016, nobody would have predicted 4 medals at the start of 2020.

 

Bol’s rise started that year (but more clearly in 2021) and Vetter dropped out of the 2019 World Champs with psychological complaints and was far from certain to compete again, let alone at top level. Even in 2021, my guestemation was 4 medals at the very best, with the kamikaze schedule that Hassan chose meaning I had serious doubts about her achieving multiple medals. At least 3 medals (Oosterwegel’s bronze in the hepathlon, and the silvers in the men’s marathon and 4 x 400 meter relays) were totally unexpected. 
 

Multiple medal chances for instance in sailing. 
 

But my point is really how surprising it is that a sport where we basically were dependent on a single talent once in a while, now delivers multiple athletes, likely to make finals and capable of vying for a medal, and a significant number of athletes below that (who on a good day are capable of making a final). In the past our teams consisted almost completely of athletes in the second category.
 

 

1) Obviously you have no way of knowing if "nobody would have predicted 4 medals at the start of 2020" is true. I understand why you feel the need to act as if your opinion was the only plausible opinion to have, but by using this "strategy" you clearly express that you aren't open to a discussion.

2) We are close to the end of 2023, so 3 years ago doesn't mean "at the start of 2020".

3) Bol was world number 1 in 2020, with a time that puts you in medal contention + she was improving rapidly.

4) If i remember correctly, the Netherlands won 3 medals in sailing/judo at the 2021 olympics, so back then it didn't seem unreasonable to think that athletics might become the 3rd most successful sport if you thought that at least 3 medals would be possible in athletics (2-3 x Hassan + Bol)

5) If you actually wanted to express something different ("But my point is really ..."), then you should have just clarified it instead of trying to defend your original comment.