Canada National Thread

[james89 847]

1 minute ago, intoronto said:

And Gymnastics only lost a quota due to team reductions (assuming Chartier qualifies)

Judo was bad luck, before the pandemic, Canada was on track to qualify 9 judoka, but injuries cost Guica/Valois time. Valois ultimately did not qualify and Guica lost ranking points to bump Burt from a spot.

Still waiting for open water swimming qualifiers, but id expect one male and one female to qualify (the max. possible)

It seems like to me that in a few of the sports we are losing quotas the team is stronger this time round: Gymnastics, Judo, Triathlon, Beach Volleyball.

[intoronto 5,639]

1 hour ago, james89 said:

It seems like to me that in a few of the sports we are losing quotas the team is stronger this time round: Gymnastics, Judo, Triathlon, Beach Volleyball.

In judo we should have four ranked athletes out of the 6, with Valois Fortier just missing out due to injury. What this means is, all it takes is a 1-2 wins to make the quarterfinals and a guaranteed medal round bout. 

[james89 847]

This seems like a pretty impressive result: https://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/summer/aquatics/water-polo/canada-water-polo-world-super-league-final-preview-1.6065521 

 

Not sure if Russia sent their A team but they beat Canada when they met during the last World Championships. 

 

 

[intoronto 5,639]

33 minutes ago, james89 said:

This seems like a pretty impressive result: https://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/summer/aquatics/water-polo/canada-water-polo-world-super-league-final-preview-1.6065521 

 

Not sure if Russia sent their A team but they beat Canada when they met during the last World Championships. 

 

 

I would assume its their A team, its the last competition before Tokyo.

[intoronto 5,639]

Here is my medal predictions, 3 points = almost certain to medal, 2= some to good chances, 1= low outside chance. If event is not listed, I do not think they will medal. 

 

Archery (1 point)

Arguably one of the hardest sports to predict. I am going to give the entire program: 1 point

 

Athletics (18 points)

Men's 100: Andre de Grasse: 2 points

Men's 200: Andre de Grasse: 2 points

Men's 800: Brandon McBride or Marco Arop: 1 point

Men's 5000: Mohammed Ahmed: 1 point

Men's 10000: Mohammed Ahmed: 1 point

Men's 50km race walk: Evan Dunfee: 1 point

Decathlon: Damien Warner: 3 points

Decathlon: Pierce Lepage: 1 point

Men's 4x100 relay: 1 point

Women's 800: Melissa Bishop: 1 point

Women's 1500: Gabriela Stafford: 1 point

Women's pole vault: Alysha Newman: 1 point

Women's hammer throw: Camryn Rogers: 1 point

Women's 4x400 relay: 1 point

 

Basketball (2 points)

Women's team: 2 points

 

Boxing (1 point)

Women's middleweight: Tammara Thibeault

 

Canoeing (1 point)

Women's C1 200: Katie Vincent

 

Cycling (9 points)

Men's road (race + trial): 1 point in total

Women's road (race + trial): 1 point in total

 

Men's team pursuit: 1 point 

Women's sprint/Keirin: 2 points in total
Women's omnium: 1 point 

Women's team pursuit: 2 points 

 

Women's cross country: 1 point in total

 

Diving (9 points)

Women's 3m springboard: 2 points in total

Women's 10m platform: 1 point in total

Women's 3m synchro: 3 points

Women's 10m synchro: 3 points 

 

Football (1 point)

Women's team: 1 point

 

Golf (1 point)

Women's: Brook Henderson 

 

Gymnastics (5 points)

Women's artistic team all events: 3 points (I am predicting 1 medal across all events)

Women's trampoline: Rosie MacLennan: 2 points

 

Judo (4 points)

Men's 73 kg: Arthur Margelidon (1 point)

Men's 100 kg: Shady El Nahas (1 point)

Women's 57 kg: Jessica Klimkait (1 point)

Women's 63 kg:  Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard (1 point)

 

Rowing (8 points)

Men's team (all events) (2 points)

Women's team (all events) (6 points)

 

Rugby (2 points)

Women's team (2 points)

Skateboarding (1 point)

Men's street: Matt Berger (1 point)

 

Softball (2 points)

Women's team: 2 points

 

Sport climbing (1 point)

Men's combined: Sean McColl (1 point)

 

Swimming (24 points)

Women's 100m freestyle: 1 point combined

Women's 200m freestyle: 1 point combined

Women's 100m butterfly: Maggie McNeil (3 points)

Women's 100m back: Kylie Masse (1 point)

Women's 200m back: 1 point combined 

Women's 200m breaststroke: Kelsey Wog (2 points) 

Women's 200im: Sydney Pickrem (2 points)

Women's 400im: Sydney Pickrem (2 points)

Women's 400/800/1500: Summer McIntosh (1 point)

All 3 women's relays: 9 points

Mixed relay: 1 point 

 

Taekwondo (2 points)

Women's 57 kg: Skylar Park (2 points)

Tennis (2 points)

Women's doubles: Fernandez/Dabrowski (1 point)

All other events: 1 point 

 

Triathlon (2 points)

Men's Tyler Mislawchuk (2 points)

 

Volleyball (2 points)

Women's: Pavan/Humana-Parades (2 points) 

 

Weightlifting (5 points)

Men's 96 kg: Boady Santavy (2 points)

Women's 64 kg: Maude Charron (3 points)

 

Wrestling (2 points)

Women's 68 kg: Danielle Lappage (1 point)

Women's 76 kg: Erica Wiebe (1 point)

 

This is purely subjective! 105 points /3 = 35. Now I do not expect 35 medals, but an interesting way to look at it. 

 

 

[Surlympics 730]

2 hours ago, james89 said:

This seems like a pretty impressive result: https://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/summer/aquatics/water-polo/canada-water-polo-world-super-league-final-preview-1.6065521 

 

Not sure if Russia sent their A team but they beat Canada when they met during the last World Championships. 

 

 

Yeah the ITA has more control of testing athletes in the lead up to the Olympics and new good leadership for FINA to enable stronger doping controls

[james89 847]

1 hour ago, intoronto said:

Here is my medal predictions, 3 points = almost certain to medal, 2= some to good chances, 1= low outside chance. If event is not listed, I do not think they will medal. 

 

Archery (1 point)

Arguably one of the hardest sports to predict. I am going to give the entire program: 1 point

 

Athletics (18 points)

Men's 100: Andre de Grasse: 2 points

Men's 200: Andre de Grasse: 2 points

Men's 800: Brandon McBride or Marco Arop: 1 point

Men's 5000: Mohammed Ahmed: 1 point

Men's 10000: Mohammed Ahmed: 1 point

Men's 50km race walk: Evan Dunfee: 1 point

Decathlon: Damien Warner: 3 points

Decathlon: Pierce Lepage: 1 point

Men's 4x100 relay: 1 point

Women's 800: Melissa Bishop: 1 point

Women's 1500: Gabriela Stafford: 1 point

Women's pole vault: Alysha Newman: 1 point

Women's hammer throw: Camryn Rogers: 1 point

Women's 4x400 relay: 1 point

 

Basketball (2 points)

Women's team: 2 points

 

Boxing (1 point)

Women's middleweight: Tammara Thibeault

 

Canoeing (1 point)

Women's C1 200: Katie Vincent

 

Cycling (9 points)

Men's road (race + trial): 1 point in total

Women's road (race + trial): 1 point in total

 

Men's team pursuit: 1 point 

Women's sprint/Keirin: 2 points in total
Women's omnium: 1 point 

Women's team pursuit: 2 points 

 

Women's cross country: 1 point in total

 

Diving (9 points)

Women's 3m springboard: 2 points in total

Women's 10m platform: 1 point in total

Women's 3m synchro: 3 points

Women's 10m synchro: 3 points 

 

Football (1 point)

Women's team: 1 point

 

Golf (1 point)

Women's: Brook Henderson 

 

Gymnastics (5 points)

Women's artistic team all events: 3 points (I am predicting 1 medal across all events)

Women's trampoline: Rosie MacLennan: 2 points

 

Judo (4 points)

Men's 73 kg: Arthur Margelidon (1 point)

Men's 100 kg: Shady El Nahas (1 point)

Women's 57 kg: Jessica Klimkait (1 point)

Women's 63 kg:  Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard (1 point)

 

Rowing (8 points)

Men's team (all events) (2 points)

Women's team (all events) (6 points)

 

Rugby (2 points)

Women's team (2 points)

Skateboarding (1 point)

Men's street: Matt Berger (1 point)

 

Softball (2 points)

Women's team: 2 points

 

Sport climbing (1 point)

Men's combined: Sean McColl (1 point)

 

Swimming (24 points)

Women's 100m freestyle: 1 point combined

Women's 200m freestyle: 1 point combined

Women's 100m butterfly: Maggie McNeil (3 points)

Women's 100m back: Kylie Masse (1 point)

Women's 200m back: 1 point combined 

Women's 100m breaststroke: Kelsey Wog (2 points) 

Women's 200im: Sydney Pickrem (2 points)

Women's 400im: Sydney Pickrem (2 points)

Women's 400/800/1500: Summer McIntosh (1 point)

All 3 women's relays: 9 points

Mixed relay: 1 point 

 

Taekwondo (2 points)

Women's 57 kg: Skylar Park (2 points)

Tennis (2 points)

Women's doubles: Fernandez/Dabrowski (1 point)

All other events: 1 point 

 

Triathlon (2 points)

Men's Tyler Mislawchuk (2 points)

 

Volleyball (2 points)

Women's: Pavan/Humana-Parades (2 points) 

 

Weightlifting (5 points)

Men's 96 kg: Boady Santavy (2 points)

Women's 64 kg: Maude Charron (3 points)

 

Wrestling (2 points)

Women's 68 kg: Danielle Lappage (1 point)

Women's 76 kg: Erica Wiebe (1 point)

 

This is purely subjective! 105 points /3 = 35. Now I do not expect 35 medals, but an interesting way to look at it. 

 

 

I love that you compiled this!

 

It's certainly an interesting experiment to do it points wise - I'm sure if you did it by event it would look different, Cycling for example you have it at 9 points which would equal 3 medals, which I would say is too high.

 

There are definitely places where we diverge. I do think you are giving Archery one point for the whole sport you need to include one point for Sailing. Men's diving as well I would give 1 point between the 10m Syncrho and 10m Individual. 

 

Judo - I think Klimkait both as the recent World Champion and as the number 1 seed needs to have at least 2 points in the system. I would also give Valois-Fortier 1 point despite not being seeded.

 

Rowing is an interesting case, at the last World Championships we got one bronze and 2 4th place finishes, but the the team strategically chose crews to send to the last chance qualifier and performed well. I'm curious if they have something going on. 

 

Finally - I think this weekend we will see where are Swimmers are at, the relays are most definitely all in play (i'm not quite ready to call the medley 3 points). I'm assuming you missed the 200m Breaststroke. 

[intoronto 5,639]

18 minutes ago, james89 said:

I love that you compiled this!

 

It's certainly an interesting experiment to do it points wise - I'm sure if you did it by event it would look different, Cycling for example you have it at 9 points which would equal 3 medals, which I would say is too high.

 

There are definitely places where we diverge. I do think you are giving Archery one point for the whole sport you need to include one point for Sailing. Men's diving as well I would give 1 point between the 10m Syncrho and 10m Individual. 

 

Judo - I think Klimkait both as the recent World Champion and as the number 1 seed needs to have at least 2 points in the system. I would also give Valois-Fortier 1 point despite not being seeded.

 

Rowing is an interesting case, at the last World Championships we got one bronze and 2 4th place finishes, but the the team strategically chose crews to send to the last chance qualifier and performed well. I'm curious if they have something going on. 

 

Finally - I think this weekend we will see where are Swimmers are at, the relays are most definitely all in play (i'm not quite ready to call the medley 3 points). I'm assuming you missed the 200m Breaststroke. 

For cycling: Women's team pursuit (which I think will struggle to medal, but has a chance) + a women's sprint medal is not out of the realm of possibility. Out of all the other events another medal might be a reach but is definitely possible.

 

Rowing is hard to gauge which is why I grouped all the events by gender. 

 

As for the 200m breaststroke, my list was supposed to say 200 for Kelsey Wog not 100. Apparently she has been hitting 2:20 in training. If she can do well in the 100m as well, Canada should be a shoe in for a medal in the medly. Wog (breast), MacNeil (butterfly), Masse (back), Ruck or Oleksiak (free).

[intoronto 5,639]

This is a long time coming

 

[orangeman 1,989]

Hi everyone.  Long time no see.  Long story short, I've had difficulty signing in here for about a year now, but I've been following along.  Thank you to everyone here that is keeping everything up to date.  

 

Thank you to everyone recently who has been keeping me up to date on all the Olympic qualifying and summaries.  It's been a crazy last few months (for everyone, I'm sure) so I haven't had a chance to look into things myself.  This site is always a great source for everything Olympics.  

 

I'm living in Beijing currently, looking forward to the Olympics here next year.  I live very close to some venues.  But first Tokyo!  

 

Thanks again to everyone!  GO HABS GO!