Team Ireland - Paris 2024 Qualification Tracker

[dodge 1,028]

McDonagh another close one. The Korean or German judge giving him the last round would have seen him win. Ah well

 

10/13 and 2 more than any other European nation. Let’s hope for some kind draws in Paris 

[Cosmo Kramer 24]

Unfortunate for McDonagh, but not all the tight outcomes are going to go our way. 10 qualifiers is a fantastic outcome, if we could convert that into two or three medals in Paris that would be excellent.

Edited June 2, 2024 by Cosmo Kramer

[OlympicIRL 5,543]

Fantastic morning for us, great to get 10(!!) boxers through and filling the entire quota of women's events is quite a landmark achievement for Ireland.

Right, let's make a list of who is left across all sports who might yet qualify. We have hit 116 qualifers now, likely we will add another few between athletics and possibly swimming OCT invites. What about Jake Passmore in diving, how are his chances?

[Cosmo Kramer 24]

Athletics and golf are the two big ones from here. Golf should provide us with four places provided everyone is fit and ready to go. Plenty of backups on the men's side if we lose either McIlroy or Lowry, but we likely need Maguire and Meadow available to be able to take our two women's places.

 

Athletics could provide six to ten more qualifiers between now and the games.

 

Still a couple of possibilities in other sports as well.

Edited June 2, 2024 by Cosmo Kramer

[duineeile 5]

Ah that's very disappointing for McDonagh, missed the fight but suspected it would be close as Chaloyan looked very impressive in his bout yesterday too. Its a pity as with his rate of improvement he could have been a real medal hope in Paris, but he's young enough for the division so hopefully will stay amateur for LA by which time he could be one of the top operators in the division.

 

Regards our numbers overall, we'll obviously have 4 golfers and hopefully Conor Ferguson, Shane Ryan and/or Max McCusker get OCT invite which would also confirm mens medley relay team. In athletics I suspect Sophie Becker (400m), Mark English (800m), at least one of the 1500m lads, Eric Favors (Shotput) and Nicola Tuthill (Hammer) will qualify, with possibilities also for Kate O'Connor (Heptathlon), Louise Shanahan (800m), Reese Ademola (Long Jump) and Thomas Barr (400m Hurdles) if he can rediscover some form, and maybe even a third 1500m guy. Other than that not sure we have a huge amount of other qualification prospects but happy to stand corrected on that.

[OlympicIRL 5,543]

Athletics possible qualifiers:

 

 

Men's 800m:

• Mark English - he is the highest ranked athlete without the automatic time and occupies 36th position out of a possible 48 quotas. He looks totally safe.

 

Men's 1500m:

• We have a great chance of adding one or two alongside auto qualified Andrew Coscoran but it's going to go down to the wire!
• Cathal Doyle currently occupies a quota position (44/45)
• Luke McCann and Nick Griggs are both currently just on the outside of the quota places 47th and 48th. But as always there are opportunities for reallocations. We know Dutch athlete Niels Laros is out injured for the Games. Also the Irish athletes have every chance of climbing inside the quota places on their own merit.
• I would reckon at least one of Doyle, McCann or Griggs makes it and would put a reasonable bet on 2 of those qualifying.

 

 

Men's 400m Hurdles:

• Thomas Barr has it all to do to get inside the quotas places. However, a good European championships would give him every chance of making it.
• He is currently ranked 59th out of a total of 40 possible quotas. He has just got a ranking for the first time last week and has a lot of scope to rocket up the ranks with some low scores to discount. I think a good European champs and he will make it (with maybe another one or two decent times at other meets). A bad Euros result and I don't think he makes it.
• He may still be part of the mixed relay team though that will be competitive with only 2 invites on the men's side.

 

 

Men's Long Jump:

• Reece Ademola is on the bubble, currently occupying a quota spot (31/32).
• However, he is out injured currently and I think he needs another couple of good performances to make the team.
• I am going to predict he won't make it unfortunately.

 

 

Men's Shot Put:

• Eric Favors is currently relatively comfortably in a quota spot (26/32).
• I think even if he doesn't further improve his points ranking, he is likely to still hang on.

 

 

 

Women's 200m:

• Phil Healy is getting back to form this year but is still quite a way outside the quotas places (ranked 60th from a total quota of 48).
• However, I do see her improving further but would still guess she will end up below the line.
• Phil is likely to be part of the women's 4x400m relay squad anyway so this won't affect our numbers.

 

 

Women's 400m:

• Sophie Becker is on track to earn an individual quota as she has rocked up the rankings this year and is now sitting in 42/48 in the rankings.
• I would bet on Sophie improving her ranking further and cementing her place.
• Again, Becker would likely be part of our relay squads so this won't affect our numbers.

 

 

Women's 800m:

• Louise Shanahan has slipped outside of the quota places after a bad season thus far.
• She is currently just outside the cut-off (51st from 48 total qualifiers).
• On current form she is likely to slip further back and miss out on qualifying. Hoping she can turn things around in the next weeks.

 

 

Women's 5000m:

• Roisin Flangan is currently outside of the quota places at 52nd place in the rankings (42 quotas).
• She has the opportunity to improve a few places but I would hazzard a guess that she falls short.

 

 

Women's Hammer:

• Nicola Tuthill is improving week-on-week and she has now leapt up to 34th in the rankings, just 2 places shy of the 32 quota places.
• I think Nicola will improve more and I would bet she just scrapes into the quota places at the close of the rankings!

 

 

Women's Heptathlon:

• Kate O'Connor is in free-fall in the rankings and is currently perilously placed 23/24 in the race to Paris.
• She won't be at the Europeans and without one more really good result in heptathlon then I don't she has a chance in hell in making the Olympics which would be devastating given it would be almost a carbon-copy of her Tokyo qualification disaster. I fear she must be struggling with injuries this season and I would have to say I don't see her making the Games

 

 

There are others still with outside chances (for example, Dave Kenny in men's 20km walk, Michele Finn in the women's 3000m steeplechase and Elizabeth Ndudi in the women's long jump) but I think they have too much to do in too short a period. Elizabeth Ndudi would be a sort of wildcard as she has the ability to make a big improvement and hit an auto Q whereas the others I can't see it happening. Though that even seems too much to hope for with Ndudi this early in her career.

 

 

 

My prediction for who will qualify:

• Mark English (Men's 800m)
• Two from Luke McCann, Cathal Doyle and Nick Griggs in the men's 1500m (in that order as well)
• Eric Favors (Men's Shot Put)
• Sophie Becker (Women's 400m)
• Nicola Tuthill (Women's Hammer)

 

I'm 50:50 on Thomas Barr. Let's be optimistic and assume he makes it. Discounting the fact Becker will likely be part of the relay squad, that gives us around 6 new qualifiers.

 

Edited June 2, 2024 by OlympicIRL

[Cosmo Kramer 24]

Probably the other thing worth noting as well is that, other than awaiting confirmation that McIlroy, Lowry, Maguire and Meadow are our four golfers and will be taking their places, I don't think there are any remaining genuine medal prospects who have yet to confirm a qualification quota. There are places on medal potential teams, boats, horses and bikes to be confirmed but the actual qualification places have already been achieved. So we can probably start to get a better view of where our medal potential is now.

 

I think there are probably 30 events that we can consider ourselves to have at least some chance of winning a medal in. Some are bigger hopes than others of course. Probably a medal return rate of around 20% from those would be the aim for the team in Paris i.e. six medals.

 

10 boxing (because any of them might have a chance with a kind draw)

5 rowing

4 athletics 

3 equestrian 

2 swimming 

2 golf 

2 cycling 

1 gymnastics 

1 rugby

maybe 1 taekwondo at a push

 

Can we pull 6+ medals out of that, and hopefully at least one gold somewhere in all that?

[dodge 1,028]

I think you’re spot on there but I think Barr can make it.  McCann has huge scope for improvement in the 1500m as he has one poor score to be overtaken. FYI Laros isn’t out. He’s in the Dutch squad for the Europeans. 

[OlympicIRL 5,543]

  On 6/2/2024 at 3:04 PM, dodge said:

I think you’re spot on there but I think Barr can make it.  McCann has huge scope for improvement in the 1500m as he has one poor score to be overtaken. FYI Laros isn’t out. He’s in the Dutch squad for the Europeans. 

Expand  

Yep, just copped that now as well.... he was reported as out injured but no longer the case. Still, I would bet on us qualifying another 2 in the 1500m alongside Coscoran.

[dodge 1,028]

McCann just ran another PB in Stockholm. Just 0.16 off the standard now