Athletics WA Under 20 World Championships 2022

[heywoodu 15,169]

9 hours ago, Jinzha said:

These 110m hurdles heats are bizarre to watch. Every heat is won by a guy hitting anywhere between 3 to 8 hurdles on the way to victory. They're just powering through the hurdles instead of jumping over them and beating the rest of the field on raw speed alone.

Especially Matthew Sophia is just a matter of waiting to see him fall, he could win so much if he learned, well, technique  

[heywoodu 15,169]

Meanwhile in the decathlon, Swedish Jacob Thelander is still the main favourite to win the gold, but he does have more of a challenge than expected: Dutchman Gabriel Emmanuel is performing way better than the forecast and has closed the gap to within 100 points in terms of the final outcome*.

 

*Emmanuel is in the lead after day one, but of course we all know we shouldn't really look too much at the standings so far, but at the forecast standings.

 

Pierre Blaecke of France seems to be on his way to silver for now, although he needs to have a normal pole vault (with normal for him being far above the rest of the field).

[De_Gambassi 1,223]

39 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Meanwhile in the decathlon, Swedish Jacob Thelander is still the main favourite to win the gold, but he does have more of a challenge than expected: Dutchman Gabriel Emmanuel is performing way better than the forecast and has closed the gap to within 100 points in terms of the final outcome*.

 

*Emmanuel is in the lead after day one, but of course we all know we shouldn't really look too much at the standings so far, but at the forecast standings.

 

Pierre Blaecke of France seems to be on his way to silver for now, although he needs to have a normal pole vault (with normal for him being far above the rest of the field).

Where did you find the projected results ?

[heywoodu 15,169]

1 hour ago, De_Gambassi said:

Where did you find the projected results ?

This guy has a spreadsheet which you can download and very easily adapt. It only has a limited number of athletes, mostly the main favourites, but it's better than nothing and easy to add an athlete if you wish.

 

 

I've added Paris and Ball there myself after downloading it, because of their current positions, but they don't seem to have much of a strong second day (especially Paris). If Paris continues on this way, he's on the way to 7200 or so, Ball to 7400-7500. Which might make Ball a potential threat for bronze at the moment, but he'll still need to improve on his usual performances.

 

We must of course keep in mind these are all teenagers, and seeing teenage athlete making huge steps up is obviously much less rare than seeing seniors do so  

 

[Jinzha 702]

I love that you basically need live updated excel spreadsheets to properly follow the multi events.

[heywoodu 15,169]

7 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

I love that you basically need live updated excel spreadsheets to properly follow the multi events.

And still not a single broadcaster really gets that you need some sort of forecast. The graphic they're now showing where you see someone's current points being split in smaller or bigger slices per event is entirely, but really entirely useless  

 

We need a forecast in the graphics. Niklas Kaul as great example: he will be far behind after day one, every knows. But he can be 12th and be the absolute top favourite to win, which you'll find out by using a forecast.

 

And no, forecasts are no crystal balls, but they do help in roughly pointing out where someone could gain (or lose) points. If someone has a 5.40m pole vault in their forecast, but that was a huge outlier and normally 5.00m is sort of the limit, you know you can keep a large potential point loss in mind there as a possibility.

 

Commentators really never get it anyway. If someone is a regular 17.00m shot putter and he gets to 15.50m, they'll praise it like a huge win if the rest gets to 14.50m (even if the rest normally gets to 13.50m). Example of course  

[Jinzha 702]

Gabriel Emmanuel is working on an incredible decathlon filled with PBs. This could be a very close battle with the Swede Thelander.

[heywoodu 15,169]

40 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

Gabriel Emmanuel is working on an incredible decathlon filled with PBs. This could be a very close battle with the Swede Thelander.

The first (slightly) disappointing result just came in at the pole vault, where he got his first height at 3.70m but then didn't make it at 3.80m. Thelander will need to crush his 4.30m PB though to even come close in the forecast. Emmanuel's hurdles and especially discus, combined with Thelander's highly disappointing discus, really catapulted him away  

[FireRun 192]

Jan Duhovnik (translates to Priest) is doing great. I can't remember the last time we had a half decent decathlete. I really hope he makes it to the seniors. A top 5 finish should secure him the funding. At least until Paris. 

[Jinzha 702]

12 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

The first (slightly) disappointing result just came in at the pole vault, where he got his first height at 3.70m but then didn't make it at 3.80m. Thelander will need to crush his 4.30m PB though to even come close in the forecast. Emmanuel's hurdles and especially discus, combined with Thelander's highly disappointing discus, really catapulted him away  

I tuned into the middle of the pole vault and was really wondering 'Did Emmanuel skip this distance or has he failed already?'

 

Great NU20R by Seedo just before though!