Canada's 2024 Olympics Qualification Discussion

[intoronto 6,467]

Here are my team size predictions as of today, will post Athletics and Swimming separately 

 

Archery, 2:

1 M + 1F (one male already qualified, expecting a female qualifier. Would love if the men's team could qualify as well. 

 

Artistic Swimming, 8:

8F (already qualified)

 

Badminton, 7:

4 M + 3 F (MS, WS and MD should be safe, the other two are not in qualifying position, but I expect them to qualify. Note: Josephine Wu would qualify in two events)

 

Basketball, 28:

12 M + 16 W (The traditional 5 a side teams have qualified and it would be a major shock if the women's 3x3 team did not qualify. The men have a longshot chance to qualify too.

 

Boxing, 2:

1 M + 1 W Sanford and Thibeault have already qualified and I cannot foresee anyone qualifying. 

Breaking, 2:

1 M + 1 W Philip Kim has already qualified, and I expect one of the two women in the rankings to join him.

 

Canoeing, 16:

7M + 9 W Right now in Sprint, we have 12 quotas (4 in MK, 5 in WK, and 3 in WC). I suspect we will likely qualify the C2 boat (with Connor Fitzpatrick  in it) I also think our K-1 1000 athlete should qualify. Realistically getting the additional quota in MK and WK is unlikely (and probably not necessary. So 15 in  Canoe Sprint (7 men and 8 women). For canoe slalom, using the 2023 PAG as a basis for results, Canada would likely only qualify the women's C-1 boat.

 

Cycling, 25:

12M + 13 W In BMX race one woman should qualify, with an outside chance in men's freestyle. Road Cycling: 4 athletes (2 per gender have already qualified). Mountain biking: 1 per gender should qualify (unlikely to get to 2). In track I am expecting a full qualification of 14 athletes (7 per gender), although this is looking bleak atm.

 

Diving, 5:
2 M + 3 W: What a disaster the team had worlds, this will be one of the smallest (if not the smallest) team we have sent.

 

Equestrian, 9:

Already qualified max team size.

 

Fencing, 12:

7M + 5 W MF, MS and WF teams should qualify. Expecting 12 athletes for now, with the three aforementioned teams and one qualifier in the other three weapons.

 

Football (soccer), 18:

The women have already qualified

 

Golf, 4:

2M + 2 W As per tradition, Canada always qualifies 2 men and 2 women.

 

Gymnastics, 12:

6M + 6W. Both artistic teams and one quota in women's trampoline have been secured. I think Remi Aubin will sneak in and grab a male  trampoline quota.

 

Judo, 7:

5M + 2 W: Right now quota tracker has 4 M and 2 W qualifying. However, I expect Julien Frascadore to get into a direct quota, bringing it up to 7

 

Rowing, 30: 

11M + 19 W: Canada has 11 women's quotas right now.

 

Boats that did not qualify and competed at Worlds: M8, MP, MQS, M1 (I think Trevor Jones will rebound and the M8 should qualify)

 

WQS: Finished 10th (9 boats qualify)

WDS: Finished 15th (13 boats qualify) 

WP: Finished 18th (13 boats qualify)
WF: Finished 10th (9 boats qualify)

 

Out of those 4, gonna be risky and say both fours boats will qualify,

 

Rugby sevens, 12:
12 W, Cannot see the men qualifying, but on any given day they can surprise.

 

Sailing 6:

2 M and 4 W Canada has 4 boats and 6 sailors qualified. I cannot see any other boats qualifying, though its certainly possible.

 

Shooting 2:

1 M and 1 W quota already secured. Although there have been some promising results, the chances of additional quotas remain low

 

Skateboarding 4: 

3 M and 1 W. 4 athletes are currently in qualifying position. No one else is near qualifying. 

Sport climbing 0:

Going to say no one qualifies (but not really familiar here).

 

Surfing 3:

1 M 2 W. Expecting Olin to maintain her qualifying spot, and Young and Brooks to join her.

 

Table tennis 4:

3 M 1 W: The men's team has already qualified and I expect Zhang Mo to join them.

 

Taekwondo 1:

1 W: Skylar Park has already qualified and I don't think anyone else will join here.

Tennis 3:

1M 2W. One of the harder sports to predict. Expecting LAF and FAA to qualify in singles, with Dabrowski qualifying in doubles (with LAF).

Triathlon 4:

2 M 2 W. Currently projected to qualify 4 athletes, unlikely to qualify anymore.

 

Volleyball 28:
14 M 14 W. Men's indoor team has qualified. The women have the momentum, and I think they will qualify as well. I also expect a men's beach pair to join Humana-Parades/Wilkerson through the NORCECA continental cup.

Water polo 12:
12 W: The women's team has already qualified.

 

Weightlifting 2:
1 M 1 W. Boady Santavy and Maude Charron should qualify. Its possible another athlete qualifies through reallocations.

 

Wrestling 6:

2M 4 W. Going with a conservative number here. I think we will qualify the two heaviest weights in men's and four women's categories (the ones missing out being 50 and 57 kg).

 

So the team without Athletics and Swimming = 274

Edited February 24, 2024 by intoronto

[Josh 11,555]

I mostly agree, but I think there’s some areas where you’re underestimatin Canada. 
 

Volleyball (-12) - Despite their momentum, I don’t see our women’s volleyball team qualifying. ALSO, it’d take a big upset for us to not qualify a second pairing in women’s beach volleyball, with it being either Pavan/McBain or Bukovec/Bansley at the NORCECA Qualifier. I’d also give a solid chance to Scachter/Dearing. We’d be rooting for Diaz/Alayo and a second American pairing to qualify through the World Rankings to be almost guaranteed, but even if both are there I wouldn’t write us off. 
 

Rowing (-10) - I think you’re crazy to think that Canada will qualify 30 (!) athletes in rowing. We’ve been on a decline ever since Tokyo, and I don’t see us coming back from it in time for the Final Qualification Regatta. I’m thinking we qualify in men’s eight and men’s single sculls. 
 

Sailing (+1) - ICLA 7 quota through the Final Qualification Regatta. 
 

Shooting (+1) - Not exactly sure in which event, but I do think one of our shooters can secure a quota through a Pan American Olympic Qualifier. Lindsay Boddez in women’s trap seems the most likely, but there’s a bunch of events where we’re on the outside looking in (just as easily could fail to win a quota) so I’m not too sure. 
 

Boxing (+2) - Way too pessimistic here, Cavanaugh and Delgado have good chances. 
 

Tennis (+?) - Not exactly sure how many athletes we’ll qualify, but 3 sounds pretty bleak, even with the state of Canadian tennis at the moment. Andresscu, Shapo, Raonic, Marino all have chances. 

Edited February 24, 2024 by Josh

[Josh 11,555]

On 2/24/2024 at 3:26 PM, Josh said:

I mostly agree, but I think there’s some areas where you’re underestimatin Canada. 
 

Volleyball (-12) - Despite their momentum, I don’t see our women’s volleyball team qualifying. ALSO, it’d take a big upset for us to not qualify a second pairing in women’s beach volleyball, with it being either Pavan/McBain or Bukovec/Bansley at the NORCECA Qualifier. I’d also give a solid chance to Scachter/Dearing. We’d be rooting for Diaz/Alayo and a second American pairing to qualify through the World Rankings to be almost guaranteed, but even if both are there I wouldn’t write us off. 
 

Rowing (-10) - I think you’re crazy to think that Canada will qualify 30 (!) athletes in rowing. We’ve been on a decline ever since Tokyo, and I don’t see us coming back from it in time for the Final Qualification Regatta. I’m thinking we qualify in men’s eight and men’s single sculls. 
 

Sailing (+1) - ICLA 7 quota through the Final Qualification Regatta. 
 

Shooting (+1) - Not exactly sure in which event, but I do think one of our shooters can secure a quota through a Pan American Olympic Qualifier. Lindsay Boddez in women’s trap seems the most likely, but there’s a bunch of events where we’re on the outside looking in (just as easily could fail to win a quota) so I’m not too sure. 
 

Boxing (+2) - Way too pessimistic here, Cavanaugh and Delgado have good chances. 
 

Tennis (+?) - Not exactly sure how many athletes we’ll qualify, but 3 sounds pretty bleak, even with the state of Canadian tennis at the moment. Andresscu, Shapo, Raonic, Marino all have chances. 

@intoronto with your research, I’d add a +1 in boxing with Alexis Barriere. 

[intoronto 6,467]

On 2/24/2024 at 6:26 PM, Josh said:

I mostly agree, but I think there’s some areas where you’re underestimatin Canada. 
 

Volleyball (-12) - Despite their momentum, I don’t see our women’s volleyball team qualifying. ALSO, it’d take a big upset for us to not qualify a second pairing in women’s beach volleyball, with it being either Pavan/McBain or Bukovec/Bansley at the NORCECA Qualifier. I’d also give a solid chance to Scachter/Dearing. We’d be rooting for Diaz/Alayo and a second American pairing to qualify through the World Rankings to be almost guaranteed, but even if both are there I wouldn’t write us off. 
 

Rowing (-10) - I think you’re crazy to think that Canada will qualify 30 (!) athletes in rowing. We’ve been on a decline ever since Tokyo, and I don’t see us coming back from it in time for the Final Qualification Regatta. I’m thinking we qualify in men’s eight and men’s single sculls. 
 

Sailing (+1) - ICLA 7 quota through the Final Qualification Regatta. 
 

Shooting (+1) - Not exactly sure in which event, but I do think one of our shooters can secure a quota through a Pan American Olympic Qualifier. Lindsay Boddez in women’s trap seems the most likely, but there’s a bunch of events where we’re on the outside looking in (just as easily could fail to win a quota) so I’m not too sure. 
 

Boxing (+2) - Way too pessimistic here, Cavanaugh and Delgado have good chances. 
 

Tennis (+?) - Not exactly sure how many athletes we’ll qualify, but 3 sounds pretty bleak, even with the state of Canadian tennis at the moment. Andresscu, Shapo, Raonic, Marino all have chances. 

I totally forgot you could qualify a second pair through NORCECA, so +2 there for beach volleyball.

Rowing is crazy but optimistic they can do it.

[Josh 11,555]

Erin Brooks will not qualify for Paris, after bowing out during repechage 3 at the ISA Surf Games. What a disappointing result, she was expected to potentially contend for an Olympic medal. 

[Surlympics 1,219]

What happened??

[Josh 11,555]

6 minutes ago, Surlympics said:

What happened??

Not exactly sure, I didn’t watch the heat as I was so convinced that she was going to win it (she got a favorable heat, but couldn’t take advantage of it)  

[Surlympics 1,219]

I guess she is super young

[orangeman 2,292]

1 hour ago, Surlympics said:

What happened??

She got Canadian citizenship....

 

Kidding, kidding. 

 

Sort of. 

[Surlympics 1,219]

Don’t kill me now