It's so incredibly hard to predict by the way, way harder than in biathlon. Like these Chinese: they only ever competed in China (with the exception of the previous Universiade for one of them) so it's nearly impossible to know how strong they are. Same thing for the Koreans, who finish minutes behind other Koreans in local races, but again, hard to predict..the Americans are even worse, with some of them only competing some non-FIS college races.
At least a good number of Polish, Ukrainian, Belarussian and even Mongolian athletes competed against Mika in December, which gives me a bit of a comparison