I am not expecting more than 5 golds for Spain. We have a lot of decent chances to win medals (we will probably tie or even beat our record of 22 in Barcelona 92), but gold medals are very difficult for us. The biggest chance is probably Sandra Sánchez in karate, but being the Japanese her biggest rival I am not so sure if it's going to be gold or silver. We also have good chances in badminton (Carolina Marín), tennis (Nadal or the doubles), shooting (both traps and the mixed team with Fátima Gálvez and Alberto Fernández), judo (Niko Sherazadishvili), sailing (470W should be our best shot, but some gold chances also in 470M, 49er and 49er FX), canoeing (in Rio we had the surprise in slalom of Maialen beating Fox, so it might happen again with David Llorente or Nuria Villarubla. In sprint we will have some chances in men kayak in K4-500, but I think that Germany will take it), golf (Jon Rahm), taekwondo (same problem, our 3 men and Adriana Cerezo, if she qualifies this week, should get a medal, but none of them is the best of their category) and team sports (men handball, even though Denmark is the biggest favorite, and maybe men waterpolo, where we have improved a lot this cycle and we have already beaten Serbia and Croatia).
In summary, I think that we will get more medals than Poland, but in golds Poland is the favorite unless we have a very good performance at the Olympics (or Poland underperforms).
In the othe polls I am going with Iran and Sweden.