I'd agree with all that Dodge has written and I imagine he will be proven right in 2024.
I think that we will 5 medals in Paris. (2 rowing, 2 boxing and 1 other)
I think we will qualify somewhere between 90 and 100. We will also qualify in a fewer number of sports that 2020.
Its great to see Irish Athlethes reacing the European finals but to even get to an Olympic Final would need big improvements for the likes of Israel and Rhasidat. Perhaps 2028 might be their year. Kate O'Connor has the potential to be World Class but seems dogged by injury.
A few thoughts on individual Sports>>
Rugby Sevens: Both teams seem to be doing well and I'd be very surprised if both dont qualify for Paris especially now as France are automatically qualified.
Gymnastics: Hopefully I am wrong but Rhys's stumble in Tokyo seems to have dented his confidence as he has made other errors in finals since then. Hopefully he will prove me wrong staring this Sunday.
Cycling: The Road Race has been reduced to 90 from 130 and based on current rankings we wouldjust qualify one rider. I cannot see us qualifying any more than 2. Our mens track team seem to hve disapperared since 2021 and unless JB Murphy gets a artner we wont qualify any men.
Pentathlon: Our glory days in Pentathlon seem over. Natalya seems to have retired although she did say she was taking a years break but her Social Media has basically gone dark.
Triathlon: Carolyn Hayes is on a break but is still posting about Paris24 so hopefully she will return
Hockey: Our womens team have regressed since 2018-2019 and I would not be confident they will qualify for Paris.
I'm a lot less confident about this Olympic cycle than the last one, particularly regarding team size. Its quite possible we will fail to qualify in Judo, Pentathlon, Triathlon, Hockey and Shooting and I don't see any new sports having qualifiers. We will again be relying on Boxing and Rowing and a bit of luck in the 'on the day'sports like Showjumping, Golf and Gymnastics for medals. If we did win 5 medals that would be very satisfactory but for a country our size we really should be targeting 7-8 especially in a European venue.