sameerph

So, these are QF line ups-

Men's Flyweight - Amit Panghal vs. Carlo Palam (PHI) - Amit had won against Palam at last year's world championships 4-1, it can be a close one though with Amit slight favorite

Men's Lightweight- Manish Kaushik vs. Chinzorig Baatrasukh (MGL) - Not much know of Mongolian, Manish should be favorite

Men's Welterweight- Vikash Krishan Yadav vs. Quicy Okazwa (JPN)- Japanese is 2019 Asian championships silver medalist, so it will be a close one.

Men's Middleweight - Ashish Kumar vs. Mikhel Robero Muskita (INA) - Ashish would be favorite

Men's Light Heavyweight- Sachin Kumar vs. Chen Daixing (CHN) - Again not much achievement from Chinese but Sachin is also a newbi, so a close one

Men's Super Heavyweight - Satish Kumar vs. Daivii Otgonbayar (MGL) - Satish would be favoured here

Women's Flyweight - Marykom vs. Magno Irish (PHI)- Mary would be clear favorite here

Women's Featherweight- Sakshi vs. Im Aeji (KOR) - both are new boxers. So, a close one

Women's Lightweight - Simranjeet Kaur vs. Monkhor Namuun (MGL)- Namuun was a QF at WC and bronze medalist at Asian championships while Simran was a silver medalist in higher weight class, so this will be an even bout

Women's Welterweight - Borgohain Lovlina vs. Melieva Maftunakhon (UZB) - Lovlina was WC bronze medalist , so would be favourite here

Women's Middleweight- Pooja Rani vs. Chutee Pornnipa (THA) - Pooja was AC 2019 gold medalist, so favourite here.

So, at least 6 out of 11 bouts we would be favoured, other 5 will be close and few will get a second chance even if they lose in QF. So, expecting about 8 quotas from her for Tokyo olympics. Anything more will be a bonus.

Pooja, Lovlina on womens side and Vikas,Sachin, Ashish and Satish will have their QF today.

So, these are QF line ups-

Men's Flyweight - Amit Panghal vs. Carlo Palam (PHI) - Amit had won against Palam at last year's world championships 4-1, it can be a close one though with Amit slight favorite

Men's Lightweight- Manish Kaushik vs. Chinzorig Baatrasukh (MGL) - Not much know of Mongolian, Manish should be favorite

Men's Welterweight- Vikash Krishan Yadav vs. Quicy Okazwa (JPN)- Japanese is 2019 Asian championships silver medalist, so it will be a close one.

Men's Middleweight - Ashish Kumar vs. Mikhel Robero Muskita (INA) - Ashish would be favorite

Men's Light Heavyweight- Sachin Kumar vs. Chen Daixing (CHN) - Again not much achievement from Chinese but Sachin is also a newbi, so a close one

Men's Super Heavyweight - Satish Kumar vs. Daivii Otgonbayar (MGL) - Satish would be favoured here

Women's Flyweight - Marykom vs. Magno Irish (PHI)- Mary would be clear favorite here

Women's Featherweight- Sakshi vs. Im Aeji (KOR) - both are new boxers. So, a close one

Women's Lightweight - Simranjeet Kaur vs. Monkhor Namuun (MGL)- Namuun was a QF at WC and bronze medalist at Asian championships while Simran was a silver medalist in higher weight class, so this will be an even bout

Women's Welterweight - Borgohain Lovlina vs. Melieva Maftunakhon (UZB) - Lovlina was WC bronze medalist , so would be favourite here

Women's Middleweight- Pooja Rani vs. Chutee Pornnipa (THA) - Pooja was AC 2019 gold medalist, so favourite here.

So, at least 6 out of 11 bouts we would be favoured, other 5 will be close and few will get a second chance even if they lose in QF. So, expecting about 8 quotas from her for Tokyo olympics. Anything more will be a bonus.

Pooja, Lovlina on womens side and Vikas,Sachin, Ashish and Satish will have their QF today.

Actually 2 extra points that one gets after taking the average of 5 best of last 6 international events has put Anjum close to a point ahead of Ela as of now. That looks a bit flawed clause in the policy. Also they did not count for world cup finals where Ela did so well.
 
As a result, as of now Ela is much behind Anjum and will need to shot 4 or 5 points better than Anjum in Delhi world cup to overcome that close to 1 point deficit. 
 
That looks really difficult. So, if NRAI strictly adheres to the policy, Apurvi and Anjum are most likely to go. But, there is a clause that NRAI can make the changes in national interest. So, if NRAI considered current form as the criteria for that change, then there is a chance for Ela but NRAI has not done that in the past.

Yes, your point about 2-year period field for juniors in very important. I think for seniors we need to consider 10 year period as average. So, conversion from junior medals to senior medals has to be around 1/5th or so. Therefore, 24 medals at junior world champiionships would mea around 5-6 medals at senior level. That was our level already at London 2012. 
 
Another point is we had 8 medals in youth olympics 8 years back. None of those medalists have gone on to get anywhere close to being medalists in olympics and that 8 medal haul got converted to only 2 medals in Rio 2016.
 
So, we have to be cautious about extrapolating these youth olympic medals and say that we will go to 10 medals level in 2024 olympics. First up I want us to get back r 6 medal level at Tokyo and then see how much we can improve over it by 2024.

I was looking at ranking across sports for our players/ teams . I think we can consider those in top 15 to have some chance of getting among medals at Rio, these are the players who are ranked within that range -

Shooting
Jitu Rai - 3rd in 10M air pistol, 2nd in 50 m pistol
Abhinav Bindra - 13th in 10M air rifle
Gagan Narang - 11th in 50M rifle 3 positions
Mairaj Ahmed Khan - 9th in Skeet

There are 2 more shooters - Sanjeev Rajput and Pooja Ghatkar who are among top 10 but are not part of Rio squad.

Archery
Womens team - 4th
Deepika Kumari - 12th
Laxmirani Manjhi - 15th

Badminton
Saina Nahwal -5th
PV Sindhu - 10th (9th among those qualified for Rio)
K Srikanth - 11th (9th among those qualified for Rio)

Tennis
Mixed doubles - there are no world rankings for mixed doubles. But if there were, I am sure Rohan-Sania would be among top 10.

Boxing
Shiva Thapa - 6th
Vikas Krishnan - 6th

Wrestling
Narsingh Yadav - 9th
Yogeshwar Dutt - 9th
Vinesh - 13th

Mens hockey team - 5th ( For a team event, I do not consider top 15 as having a chance of a medal , therefore not including 13th ranked Indian womens team)

That makes it a total of 17 events.

To this I would add -

Tennis mixed doubles- there are no rankings for those but if there were I am sure Rohan-Sania would be in top 10.
Gymnastics- Deepa Karmakar was 5th in the last world championships in vault
Weighlifitng - Meerabai Chani has the 4th best lift this year.
Archery - Atanu Das finished 4th and lost to the world champion Korean in the last world cup
Shooting - Gurpreet Singh in rapid fire and 10M pistol, Manavjeet Sandhu /Kynan Chenai in mens trap, Apurvi Chandela/Ayonika Paul in womens 10 M air rifle, Gagan Narang- 10M Air rifle, Heena Siddhu in 10 M air pistol - all have won medals in world level events in last couple of years. So, considering the variability of results in shooting, they can shine on a given day at Rio.

I am not including anyone in athletics despite some staggering results by mens relay ream and mens jumpers.

So, it would make a total of 28 in starting lists with a shot at a medal.

However, uncertain part is most of them would require to improve on their rankings/ current position and over perform to finish among medals. Our athletes did that in London where we had even lower medal contenders. If they do that again and about 1/4th of the above do that , we may be looking at improving our medal tally above the London tally of 6.
The downside is if everyone performs exactly as per their rankings, we may end with 2-3 medals too.
 
Realistically, we are looking at a range between 2-8 medals for us at Rio.
 
I hope the more optimistic scenario materialises.