MHSN

looking at the Greco brackets, there is no direct elimination because there are max 6 wrestlers in each weight which means luck doesn't matter here and they have to actually beat the rest to qualify. 60: easy to say and . but TUN can do something. the MAR guy is also a former olympian but no chance really. 67: without Egypt who is already qualified I say and . 77: it will be between MAR, EGY and ALG. the Morocco guy is quite experienced but old, if he is fit I would say and 87: again between TUN, EGY and ALG. I say and 97: once again TUN, EGY and ALG. I pick and 130: is a sure thing. the other 3 are more or less in the same level I go with no chance for other countries unless they have some naturalized wrestlers I'm not aware of.

There is a separate thread for that African/Oceania event. I will write something about it there but I think Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria will collect everything. Morocco also has a chance for 77kg. no chance for the rest.

that makes sense what about the other guys who won the quota 1.5 years ago ? are they going to Tokyo themselves or there will be trials ? I'm just trying to find out how the team selection system works in other countries. here it's always a huge huge controversy. they make it like rocket science to simply pick up a team.

kind of interesting to have a trial/qualification for the qualification tournament specially at this period of time. a week after the European OQT. does it mean if he wins the quota, he will go to Tokyo ? no more trials ?

most of them have a chance, I mean as far as I know none of them are "weak" but none of them is the #1 favorite which means they need a bit of luck with the draw. it depends on the competition day, in Greco sometimes it's just about one moment and one mistake (unlike freestyle when you have the entire 6 minutes to make up for that mistake) I believe your best chance is at 87 and then 77. but for example I don't think Gurpreet Singh can beat the great Kim Hyeon-woo, so he needs a bit of luck to avoid Kim before the final. your 60kg is a tough guy but he has to beat one of those "better guys" to qualify. but since this is just one match nothing is impossible specially if he gets China. considering everything I expect India to qualify 0-2. so let's say at least 1

whoever qualifies for Tokyo can participate in all individual events.

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looking at the women's entries for the Asian OQT, removing countries with 2-3 wrestlers we will have this number 50kg: 5 - round robin 53kg: 6 - 2 groups of 3 57kg: 6 - 2 groups of 3 62kg: 7 - 2 groups of 3 and 4 68kg: 6 - 2 groups of 3 76kg: 5 - round robin that means there will be no direct knockout competition in the women's qualifier in Asia. nobody can expect a lucky draw to qualify by pure luck.

and Greco 60kg, seeds: 1) WALIHAN, 2) SHARSHENBEKOV 10 in the list, I believe the best 2 guys are rightfully seeded. 3 Asian wrestlers are already qualified which makes the weight a bit weak. I believe KOR and IND are the only wrestlers who can cause problems for these 2 specially KOR. absolutely no chance for the rest .Sharshenbekov is a favorite for an Olympic medal, nobody wants to face him before the final. 67kg, seeds: 1) RYU, ASHU 14 NOCs in the list, Ryu is a former world champion so I assume everybody wants to be in the bottom half! KAZ has 3 guys in the list, two of them are former world medalists, I believe whoever Kazakhstan sends will be #2 behind KOR. specially because when you wrestle Kazakhstan in Kazakhstan who you have to beat the refs too. they blatantly cheat with no shame. I want to think our Geraei is #3 and hopefully avoid both of them before the final (wishful thinking lol) Tian CHN and Vardanyan UZB are probably the next best guys + KGZ and maybe even JPN. no chance for the rest. 77kg, seeds: 1) AL BIDHAN only 1 wrestler from the seeded list is in the entry list and I'm sure everybody wants to meet him lol with 10 wrestlers in the list being in the top half alongside this Iraqi guy will be a great draw. KIM is the huge huge favorite. I think he will qualify 99% I see only Makhmudov capable of beating him (as he did in Jakarta 2018) IND, CHN and JPN are the best guys in order. the other 5 are very weak but they may have a chance ONLY if 3 of them fall in the top half alongside our Iraqi friend. 87kg, seeds: 1) SUNIL, 2) KUSTUBAYEV 10 NOCs in the list, KAZ has 2 names but if they enter Kustubayev he will be seed 2. I believe these 2 guys are #2 and #3 in the list. but the best guy is former world bronze medalist and multiple times Asian Champion Nouri. he is the one nobody wants to meet before the final. but to be honest I will feel better if gets luck and be in the top half. not because Kustubayev is good. but because of the refs. I consider China as #4 and maybe Japan as #5. I can't see anybody else qualifies. 97kg, seeds: 1) SARAVI, 2) LEE finally we have a seeded wrestler . with 10 wrestlers in the list. Saravi has to win 2 matches to qualify from the top half. he is the best in this list. but the most dangerous wrestler is from who just beat Aleksanyan a month ago in Ukraine tournament. Kazakhstan (with refs) are always dangerous too. after them it's probably UZB, JPN or IND. but I think at the end 2 of IRN, KAZ or KGZ will quaify. 130kg, seeds: 1) ABDULLAEV, 2) KIM only 8 wrestlers here, if one withdraws we will have two groups in round robin completion , the most interesting name is Tsurtsumia 40 years old 2004 Olympic silver medalists! not sure if he really wrestles because KAZ has other names in the list as well. I believe except the IRQ guy, the rest 7 has a chance to qualify. UZB probably has a better chance, and then CHN, KGZ and of course KAZ+refs.

but that's not going to happen while the sport in unpredictable but not this much. Yemen and Palestine and Afghanistan 0% absolutely no chance. but Iraq and Turkmenistan maybe 1%. at least they know the basic of the sport. but they can qualify if they only face each other before the final. not going to happen with this seeding system

it's just the preliminary list, at the end only one of them will wrestle in the competition, sometimes they want to confuse other countries by entering multiple names. that's what Russia used to do before the internet age. (they can't do that now because everybody knows who won their trials)

we have the entries for the Asian OQT, now it's easier to have some early prediction, even though this is list is NOT final and some late changes are always possible and as expected there is nobody from North Korea in the list. they simply gave up Olympic qualifications. 57kg, seeds: 1) MYRZANAZAR UULU, 2) LIU, 3) I see 13 names from 11 wrestlers in the list. Mongolia surprisingly is not sending the top seed, instead they are sending the former world bronze at 61kg. KGZ has two guys in the list, one of them should be seed 1 but I have a feeling they will send the other guy who is a serious contender, I don't think seeding matters here because the biggest names are unseeded. from what I see PHI, TKM, PAK and IRQ are here to just make the numbers but other 7 wrestlers will fight for the 2 quotas, I give more changes to and but and are right after them. also never underestimate and the Chinese guy is also not bad at all. slim chance for TJK too. 65kg, seeds: nobdy! none of the seeded Asian wrestlers are here in the entry list, so it will be an open draw between 10 wrestlers. 4 on top and 6 in the bottom half of the draw. surprisingly Bahrain didn't enter their Russian top seed. the biggest name in the list is Bekbulatov. who is a former European Champion from Russia. I think the next favurite is our A.M. Yazdani I think he will be fine if he doesn't get Bekbulatov before the final. that's the key in the draw. from 10 NOCs in the list, KUW, TKM, YEM and IRQ have no chance. I don't know this Chinese guy but they sometimes have dangerous wrestlers at this weight. KOR too. but I think Akmataliev is the biggest threat for the 2 favorites 74kg, seeds: 1) LEE, SHARIPOV 13 NOCs in the list, seeding doesn't matter here too, those seeded are far from being the favorite. again IRQ, THA, QAT, TKM are most probably TJK are here to make the numbers. former world medalist Abdurakhmonov is the hot favorite here. I believe Emami is 2nd who is 2019 world bronze medalist but at 70kg. he is good but not experienced in this new weight, that's worrisome. I don't know this new guy of but they usually have good wrestlers at this weight, this makes him the #3 for me in this weight. don't forget Batirov who is a 4 time world medalist but he is 36 and didn't achieve anything at 74kg. still he is Russian! the KGZ here is also a former world medalist but I don't give him much chance. he, CHN and KOR are next in line. 86kg, seeds: 1) TAKATANI, 2) AL OBAIDI 12 guys are in the list, interestingly Asian Games silver medalist Abounader is here too he once withdrew from the LBN wrestling team when they forced him to withdraw against an Israeli opponent. the Iraqi guy 2nd seed is a joke, probably the worst in the field ! I think are the favorites. and of course. 97kg, seeds: 1) IBRAGIMOV, 2) KADIAN 10 NOCs are in the list, Kadian and our Mohammadian have the same points but is seed 2 per tiebreaking rules. I believe Mohammadian is huge huge favorite here. the only guy who can upset our guy is the grandpa Ibragimov who has a history of beating our wrestlers, (even though he is old and lost his last match to our guys) from the rest is dangerous too. I believe if Mohammadian falls in the bottom half, and will qualify but if not, that will open the door for or . 125kg, seeds: 1) BATIRMURZAEV, 2) LAZAREV 11 wrestlers in the list. I believe the best guy is rightfully seeded as #1. I think Lazarev probably deserves the 2nd seed too but it will be an open competition, there is no clear favorite. Sumit is probably the next best guy and will have a good chance if he is in the bottom half. the rest are below average wrestlers, maybe KOR can do something here too.

I can't see anything on wikipedia right now , someone probably removed it but no that's not true. the qualification in Oceania is done when it's done everywhere. and while the Oceania Championship is cancelled I won't be surprised if IWF lets Oceania athletes to participate somewhere else. it happened before, our 2016 Olympic Champion made himself eligible for the Olympics by participating at the Pan-American Championship! their Qualification rule says it's necessary for weightlifters to participate in at least one event in 2021. so ...

No. you have to wait till the end of the qualification period. even that is probably not enough because lots of countries will have quotas more than their limitation and they have to choose between them. we will see lots of reallocation here. probably the most complicated Olympic qualification system ever !

you are welcome I think it's very simple, he has a very good chance if he repeats his old results and Martirosyan and Aramnau don't get injured those 3 other guys are not young, they are not going to lift more than their PBs in Tokyo kind of funny, usually you will have more medal chance if someone else gets injured. speaking of Talakhadze, he just lifted 223 in Snatch and 265 in CJ in training. (his videos are all over the net if someone googles his name and those numbers) he is getting closer and closer to that 500kg total which was supposed to be impossible for any human being.

so it's just matter of time to disqualify her officially. it's wiser to give the Nigerian girl the quota and NOT let her wrestle here, her results may affect other wrestlers. but at least that will be a round robin and not direct elimination.

that's not really impossible. maybe they don't even know lol but in that case UWW won't let her wrestle. that's against the rules. you can't participate in weights you are already qualified. we will see if she really wrestles in Tunisia or not. but I think Fransson is probably fighting the disqualification. the case is probably just not over yet. as long as she is not "officially" disqualified, the Nigerian girl is not 100% guaranteed a quota and she has to participate in Africa to make sure. (even though it's taking too long, we heard about Fransson something like 15 months ago) I only see 5 wrestlers in the list for her weight, so it will be a round robin competition meaning they can always come back to the results and pick up the 3rd girl to qualify instead of her.

Entries for the African/Oceania qualifier in Tunisia https://uww.org/article/african-and-oceania-olympic-qualifier-entries a bit surprised to see Australian wrestlers in the list considering how strict they are regarding the quarantine rules. (and wrestling is not a big deal there) Tunisia entered 2-3 wrestlers per weight but if we consider just one of them we will have only 3-4 wrestlers in some weights, (specially in Greco and women) since late withdrawals or disqualification (for not making the weight) is always possible. we may end up with 2 wrestlers in a weight receiving free quotas. interesting note: Blessing OBORUDUDU is in the entry list but that's against the news we heard long time ago about the Swedish girl Jenny Fransson being disqualified from the Worlds (therefore giving her quota to Nigeria) maybe the process of disqualifying Fransson is not over yet but what if Oborududu qualifies here too ? who will get the reallocated quota? the next best wrestler from the 2019 Worlds ? (which is ) or next best girl from Africa? or maybe Fransson somehow survived the doping story ?! UWW never mentioned her in their doping list. that was only Swedish sources talking about her doping.

yes I did and this is the post since that day the TPE guy is also got disqualified and he is out too. first let me explain that Aramanau didn't really participated at +109kg. to qualify for the Olympics you have to participate in 6 events but 4 of them will be counted, so most weightlifters had two "DNS" . means they just participated in the weigh-in and then withdrew. they usually do that in the upper weight to not cut weight. that's why you see Aramanu or Yang Zhe in the ranking. they never really participated at the +109kg. both Belarus and Armenia have just 1 quota to use. Armenia has Simon Martirosyan who is the clear gold medal favorite at 109kg. so unless he gets injured they will never send anybody else. same goes to Belarus. Ziaziulin has a chance for medal but Aramanau has a chance to challenge Martirostan for gold and his silver is almost secured. if I was Belarus I would send Aramnau for sure, again unless he gets injured. after all he is not young. removing Armenia and Belarus leaves Fernando Reis Saraiva as the 3rd best result among the remaining athletes. you can go here and sort the athletes by their "best total" I believe it will be between Brazil, Algeria, Turkmenistan and Syria . https://www.iwf.net/qualif/menu/ and Davoudi chokes sometimes, of course winning silver should be very easy for him. he just lifted 451 in total in a local competition couple weeks ago. almost everybody here thinks he will win the silver in Tokyo (no more, no less) Iran is also limited to two male weightlifters, and Davoudi (barring injuries) will get one of those 2. not because he is great, but because our coaches also did all these calculations themselves even though "officially" we still have 4 weightlifters in race for Tokyo and Davoudi is just one of them. if we remove ineligible weightlifters, here is the best official result (by official I mean results in IWF sanctioned international competitions) of remaining weightlifters in past 2.5 years. 484 Talakhadze 441 Davoudi 436 Reis 431 Bidani 430 Asaad 427 Toychyyev 427 Seim 418 Kucera

I think they did, I remember I read such a thing in their previous statement

they changed that. as far as I know now it's equally 4 quotas for all 13 events.

this is 1 for each continent in each event, 1 for Asia, 1 for Africa, (already allocated), 1 for America and 1 for Europe.

that's only for Asia and Africa because their qualification tournaments are already done. Europe will have its aditional 1 quota per weight (through ranking) after the end of the European Qualification event.

I'm a bit confused about how the ranking works, ISSF website says they award 1000pts for the gold medal winner and 750 for silver etc but then when I check the current ranking almost nobody has 1000pts . so this one last event in India has more points to offer than all other previous world cups combined ? am I right that in most events whoever finishes first here qualifies ? (among eligible shooters)

the last time I updated this thread was 2 years ago OK time for a little Olympic-related information while everything is frozen here because of the new year holidays we had our Olympic trials in freestyle wrestling 2 weeks ago. that was only in 2 weights for some weird reasons and these guys secured their place in the Olympic team. no surprise since they both won the quota in Kazakhstan as well. 57: Reza Atri 86: Hassan Yazdani this is the 86kg trial match, where the Olympic Champion Yazdani beat World U23 Champion Kamran Ghasempour 5-2. the last time they faced (in 2019), more than 12,000 came to the stadium to watch them wrestle. this time it had to be in an empty hall