My list - I think between 4- 10 medals is realistic as non of them are really favorites or even most likely medallists barring Jitu Rais two events where he is ranked 2 and 3 respectively
Top 20 Medal chances for India( this is in no order )
1. 50m Prone - Gagan Narang - Medalllist last year in one of the Fort benning world cups 2015 , has the big occasion temperament
2. 10m Air rifle(m) - Abhinav Bindra - Big occasion shooter , is showing signs of a return to form ( in baku world cup was leading finals after 2 rounds by a big margin ), a gold medallist has the temperament to shoot ( only a fool would say that Abhinav cannot medal in Rio..... In case any of you want to dispute that )
3. 10m Air Pistol(m) - Jitu Rai - Bronze medal at the chongwon world cup - consistently has been in finals - One of Indias top hopes
4. 50m Air Pistol(m)- Jitu Rai - Currently Ranked world number 2 in this event , silver at the world championships - a class act
5. Skeet(m) - Mairaj - The only Indian who won a medal at the Rio World cup this year - currently ranked world no 4 ( never thought we would have a skeet prospect )
6. 10m Air rifle(w) - Apurvi - broke the world record last year , last years world cup final silver medal
7. Womens Badminton - Sania Nehwal - world championship silver medallist , in good form
8. Mens Hockey Team - Last two major tournaments - Silver and Bronze
9. Tennis Mixed Doubles - With Sania in the team we have one of the best women's players with a very small field just two good matches and you are in with a medal
10.Boxing - Shiva - A medal at the world championship .......
11. Boxing - Vikas - Indias finest boxer reached quarters of the world championship , is a world championship medallist
12. Wrestling - Narsingh - The only indian till now to win the olympic quota at the world championship , shows his class
13. Wrestling - Yogi- Missed the world championship due to injury but his form at the asian qualifiers was fearsome
14. Wrestling - Vignesh - Awesome form at the last qualifiers , again her form was so good
15. Archery womens team - Current world championship silver medal , has consistently been medal-ling
16. Archery womens individual - Deepika is a true championship so many medals , was immature last time in her first olympics , now is more mature
17. 10m air pistol ( w) - Heena Sidhu has been ranked world number one in 2014 was in fine form in the run up to the asian qualifiers
18. Womens weightlifiting - Mirabhai Chanu in the 48 Kgs has lifted 192 which puts her in the elite list of top 3-4 weightlifters, she has been consistenly improving in the last few months and I feel will reach the level of 194 or so at Rio ..that should fetch her a medal with some luck
19. Womens Vault - The fast improving Dipa Kramakar came 5th at the world championship , she has been getting a lot of support and will improve further , a medal prospect in gymnastics
20. Womens Badminton - PV sindhu - two times world championship bronze medallist is definately a prospect