India I will try to be as scientific/ disciplined as possible to avoid over estimating chances for india which I have done in both tokyo and the disaster ( for india) which was Rio...
So first I set a minimum criteria for performance - world Championship medal this Olympic cycle or Asian Games gold / silver ( only for sports where asian standard is high) or world ranking top 3 . After that try to a % chance to eliminate absolutes . If done then in alphabetical order
1. Athletics
Javelin : Neeraj chopra ( wch G- 23 S -22, world rank 2 ) .... Medal chance -75% ... Gold chance - 50%
We have no one else, (not counting AG at all as level is overall low )
2. Archery...
Men's team... Ranked 2 , also AG silver.... Medal chance 25%
3. Boxing
We have won 2G , 4 B in wch .... But this was AIBA with many boycotts...
50 kg.... Nikhat ( double world champ) .... Medal chance... 75% , Gold chance... 50% ...
57 Kg.... Manisha who won the bronze in wch is not there , but the new girl parveen is there who has won a medal in wch in non Olympic weight .... Medal chance... 25%
76 .... Lovlina .... Reigning world champ, AG silver, Medal chance... 50% , Gold chance 25%
Men's ( we do not have a quota yet so this subject to them winning quota)
51 - amit phangal.... Deepak bohria won wch bronze but it will be amit at the last qualifier and i think he can win quota he is AG gold and world champ silver.... Medal chance 25%
71 Nishant bohra... Wch bronze if he gets quota in last qualifier.... Medal chance 25%
4. Shooting
We have won 21 quotas second after china but this is a sport where we have underperformed last two Olympics ... But will combine the events
events.... Based on the criteria drawn 8 events meet them ....10M rifle ( M and W) , 50M 3 positions ( M and W) , mixed pistol , 10m pistol ( W), 25M pistol W, Skeet M .... 33% chance in each for medal, 15% for gold each event....
5. Wrestling
50 kg W... Vinesh AG gold and 2 time bronze wch... Medal 50% medal
53 kg W... Antim... Current world Championship bronze... 50% medal
57 kg W.... Anshu silver in wch... 25% medal
76 W - reethika, 56 M Aman do not meet criteria but since both are u23 Gold medallist can consider wch medal equivalent - 25% medal chance
49 kg W .. Mirabhai chanu, world rank and world champ silver 2022 ... Medal chance... 50% ... Chances would be higher had she not been recovering from injury
Oops almost missed
Badminton. .
Men singles won 3 world Championship medals.... Medal chance... 25%
Men doubles... World chmpionship medal and world rank top 3 .... Medal prospect - 50% and gold -25%
Total - Gold - 2.5 ... Between 2-3
Medals - 8.9 - between 8-9
Ha Ha....maybe gracenotes can steal my analysis