Britain will vote this day next week (Thursday, 23rd June) on a referendum on whether to "Leave" or "Remain" in the EU.
It's a very complex situation and the country and indeed the governing Conservative party is split over the issue. Since the date was set for the referendum, polls regularly showed the "Remain" side with a comfortable lead. The "Leave" side has gathered momentum, slowly chipping away at the lead and in the most recent 2 weeks, polls are indicating a sizeable swing in favour of "Brexit"... i.e. in favour of Britain leaving the E.U.
The Conservative party are in chaos, ministers attacking ministers, leading members undermining the Prime Minister and rubbishing claims and so called "scare-mongering" from the Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister). Boris Johnson who is leading the "Leave" campaign is also widely considered as a candidate to replace David Cameron as the next Conservative leader and potential Prime Minister, so to see them go head to head and resort to mud-slinging in a very public way is quite astonishing to see play out.
The Labour party too is in chaos, with many of their traditional supporters indicating they intend to vote to "Leave" the EU, which would be a devastating blow for the Labour parliamentary party and indeed the "Remain" side who are fundamentally relying on those Labour supporters to get them across the line.
The British population is deeply divided on the issue also with a comfortable majority of under-35s in favour of "Remain" and on the other hand, a huge majority of the older population are in favour of a "Brexit". Crucuially, the older population are more likely to get out and use their vote than the younger population and that could prove to be a decisive factor.
There are also contrasting opinions from the different countries in the UK, with a comfortable majority in Scotland in favour of "Remain" while recent polls have shown a much closer situation in the other countries (England, Wales and Northern Ireland), and in fact some polls have shown those populations in favour of "Leave".
This also gives rise to another potentially intriguing scenario whereby the Scottish Nationalist Party, which holds power in the Scottish Parliament and a huge presence in Westminster, threatening to call another independence referendum if Scotland votes to "Remain" but is dragged out of the EU by an overall "Leave" vote in the other 3 regions. The nationalists are very confident about winning any potential independence referendum this time also.
So the prospect of the break-up of the United Kingdom is also looming large in the backdrop of this referendum.
At the moment, the polls are indicating that the referendum will be too close to call.... "Brexit" is beginning to forge a lead and gain momentum but some would say that they need to be a bit further ahead in order to secure victory....the consensus is that as the referendum day gets closer, those undecided or even just a little bit swayed by the "Leave" option would revert back to voting for the status quo, usually out of fear of the unknown.... choosing to stick instead of change. But it is striking so far that the so called "Project Fear" adopted by Cameron and the "Remain" side is not cutting through with voters this time and there is a more stubborn attitude among the electorate this time that they won't be won over by fear from either side of the argument. Immigration concerns are proving to be the main talking point and of course that overwhelmingly benefits the "Leave" side of the argument as it's a strong point for them..... the economy which is the strong point for the "Remain" side is not gathering the same tract as immigration, with many voters indicating they will still vote to leave even if it means they will be worse off economically in the short-term.
The "Brexit" side are arguing that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to win back democracy for the UK and that argument is winning over voters.
It's going to be one heck of a week ahead!!