For , 23 is in the optimistic range, so thank you for being optimistic for us !
As written by @SalamAkhi, I guess a total close to 15 medals will be a good result. We're going to depend a lot on biathlon: and like many other sports, there is a bit of randomness in the results (especially, if I understood correctly, the races risk to be a lottery because of the wind?).
But we have a very strong team (my only fear is that Sweden's/Norway's team will be even stronger), so I will predict between 5-8, including 2-4 gold.
Figure Skating : Certainly our greatest chance of a gold medal (Papadakis-Cizeron), but also our only chance of a medal at all in ice sports. 1.
Alpine Skiing : A few chances with of course Pinturault (Combined & Giant Slalom), Noël (Slalom), Faivre (Giant Slalom) and Worley for the girls (Giant Slalom). Let's say 1-3, but I could only see Clément Noël winning one gold.
Cross-Country Skiing : We have to bet everything on the M team classical spint thanks to it being in freestyle style. One other medal (M relay, M mass start ?) is a long shot. 0-1.
Snowboarding : Snowboard cross with Chloe Trespeusch for the girls, and Merlin Surget for the boys (but he's much more an outsider). But I think our biggest opportunity lies in the team event, thanks you Olympics for the diversity ! 1-2.
Freestyle Skiing : Much more optimism in this sport! Perrine Laffont will be one the favourite in W moguls, same for Tess Ledeux in W Big Air / W Slopestyle (but Eileen Gu will at home ! ), Antoine Adelisse in M Big Air, and of course our strong ski cross team in men event. A shame for the women that Marielle Berger-Sabbatel will not compete, and Alizee Baron seems injured too. Let's say 3-5, with 2-3 golds.
I'm not sure if I forget someone !
Pessimistic total : 11 (but 5 gold !?)
Optimistic total : 20 (8 gold)
My personal bet : 14 with 6 gold