Nicky Pryde

The last Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo beat the record of the most medal-winning nations during the event, with 93 nations who win at least the Bronze. There was 206 nations and 339 events (for a total of 1080 medals). In Paris, we have still 206 nations, but with less events (329). However, more countries has chances to win a medals. So, do you think Paris will beat this record and, why not, surpass the 100 nations mark for the first time ? As a numbers lover, that will be the point I'll check during this Olympiades in my own country, So i'll be glad to share this with you ! To check if it's possible, I made stats about each countries during the last 5 olympiads (from Athens to Tokyo), and I separate the 206 nations in 8 categories. (please note : I just check that, I don't know which athletes has the best chances in each sports). Group 1 (26) Countries that has reached at least 5 medals in each Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo For these countries, I'm not afraid for them, I think they'll reach their minimal quota this year. Concerned : Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, China, Croatia, Cuba, Czechia, Denmark, France, Germany, UK, Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine and USA Group 2 (14) Countries that has reached at least 5 medals 50% or more of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo I think they'll also gain at least one medal this year, but be careful ! Concerned : Bulgaria, Colombia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Iran, North Korea, Norway, Romania, South Africa, Switzerland, Taipei, Thailand, Turkey, Uzbekistan Group 3 (15) Countries that has reached at least 5 medals in one of the 3 last Olympiades (Tokyo, Rio or London) They are in a good dynamism, so they have really good chances. Moreover for some of them, the fact that they are not in group 1 or 2 can be explained by geopolitical events. Concerned : Austria, Belgium, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Serbia, Slovenia Group 4 (8) Countries that won at least 1 medal in each of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo they are still here, but they are not immune to poor performance ! From there, we will take a look on these countries. Concerned : Argentina, Bahamas, Estonia, Finland, Morocco, Portugal, Slovakia, Venezuela Group 5 (29) Countries that won at least 1 medal in at least 2 of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo We will clearly not bet on them, but they have already the experience of the win ! In this category, we can also cut them in 2 parts : the countries who has won a medal in Tokyo and the other. Concerned who won a Medal in Tokyo (20) : Armenia, Bahrain, Botswana, Ecuador, Fiji, Granada, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Moldova, Nigeria, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Uganda Else (9): Afghanistan, Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Singapore, Tajikistan, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam Group 6 (23) Countries that won at least 1 medal only one time in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo They already won so we know they are able, but it'll be still difficult for them Concerned who won a Medal in Tokyo or Rio (10) : Bermuda, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Namibia, Niger, North Macedonia, San Marino, Turkmenistan Else (13): Cyprus, Gabon, Guatemala, Iceland, Mauritius, Montenegro, Panama, Samoa, Sudan, Togo, Eritrea, Paraguay, Zimbabwe Group 7 (91) Countries that never won a medal in the last 5 Olympiads I think the 100 bar can be reach with these countries. Maybe some surprises ? I hope for them ! Group Special (3) Countries that is too difficult to estimate for them I include here AIN and Refugees, but also Kosovo, a too young country who reach at least 1 medal in the last 2 Olympiads, but we don't really know. So, if we go on the fact that groups 1,2,3 and 4 will win at least on medal for each, we have a base of 63 nations. So we hope there will be 37 other nations in the list ! What do you think about that ? That was clear for you (sorry, english is not my mother tongue ^^) ? Do you think that, with this analyse, the 100 mark can be reach ? (Also in the topic, i'll take the count for each Group during these Olympic Games) Thanks for reading ! Current results Events : 223 Groupe 1 : 26/26 Groupe 2 : 14/14 Groupe 3 : 15/15 Groupe 4 : 4/8 Groupe 5 : 17/29 Groupe 6 : 3/23 Groupe 7 : 6/91 Special : 3/3 Total : 88/100 Last chances per countries :

I think you confused Bolivia and Ghana ^^ Ghana has several chances in athletics, especially in 100m M and 800m M

I've just noticed today that the somalian athlete for Marathon isn't in the world ranking anymore, he has not participated to a single event since August 2023 https://worldathletics.org/world-rankings/marathon/men?regionType=countries&region=som&page=1&rankDate=2024-04-02 https://worldathletics.org/athletes/somalia/khadar-basheer-youssuf-14875164 So except if I've forgot an other way to win a NOC, I think we can say that Somalia will not be represented...